Saturday, 14 November 2015 14:25
Tracking: Edwards leads Vitter by 15 or 10%, depending upon black turnout
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 vitter trickThe most recent daily tracking of the Louisiana governor's race with Jon Bel Edwards recovering somewhat from what could be a temporary move towards Senator David Vitter, a Republican for governor.  

According to Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight, Edwards leads with 15% with African Americans turning out 26% and by only 10% with African Americans turning out with only 20%.

Here are the toplines with further cross tabs following shortly.

If you have having issues reading poll below, here is the relevant pdf


MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT              LOUISIANA RUN-OFF       SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT       NOVEMBER 11-14,2015                          QUESTION    1. HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF                      ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE OFFICES:                                                                                    #    %                         1.  DEFINITELY VOTING               500   83                           2.  PROBABLY VOTING                 100   17                                                        TOTAL    600                  QUESTION    2. NIGHT. BY OBSERVATION                                                                                    #    %                         3.  NIGHT 3                         200   33                           4.  NIGHT 4                         200   33                           5.  NIGHT 5                         200   33                                                        TOTAL    600                  QUESTION    3. JOHN BEL EDWARDS                                                                                    #    %                         1.  STRONGLY FAVORABLE              127   21                           2.  SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE              165   28                           3.  SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE            102   17                           4.  STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE             88   15                           5.  NO OPINION                      107   18                           6.  NOT AWARE                        10    2                                                        TOTAL    600                              FAVORABLE                       292   49%                              UNFAVORABLE                     191   32%                              NET FAVORABLE                   102   17%                              FAVOR : UNFAVOR               1.5:1                                  MRI                                            11-14-2015    PAGE  OV-1
                LOUISIANA RUN-OFF       SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT       NOVEMBER 2015   JOB NUMBER:            OVERALL RESULTS               QUESTION    4. DAVID VITTER                                                                                    #    %                         1.  STRONGLY FAVORABLE              101   17                           2.  SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE              171   28                           3.  SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE            123   20                           4.  STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE            120   20                           5.  NO OPINION                       83   14                           6.  NOT AWARE                         2    0                                                        TOTAL    600                              FAVORABLE                       272   45%                              UNFAVORABLE                     243   40%                              NET FAVORABLE                    29    5%                              FAVOR : UNFAVOR               1.1:1                 NOTES:  ALTHOUGH VITTER HAS IMPROVED HIS FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE RATIO, EDWARDS                 HAS A 17% NET FAVORABLE COMPARED TO VITTER 5%. VITTER RECEIVES 74% FAVORABLE                AMONG ALL REPUBLICANS AND 9% LOWER FAVORABLE AND 9% HIGHER UNFAVORABLE WITH                WHITE WOMEN COMPARED TO MEN. WITH WHITE EVANGELICALS VITTER HAS 53% FAVORABLE                AND 38% UNFAVORABLE.            QUESTION    5.   IF THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY,                      WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: JOHN BEL EDWARDS,A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER,                      A REPUBLICAN? IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED                      ABOUT YOUR VOTE FOR GOVERNOR, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD:                      JOHN BEL EDWARDS, A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER, A REPUBLICAN?                                                                     ADJUSTED  ADJUSTED  UNADJUSTED                                              20% AA    26% AA                         1.  VITTER                40%         38%       28%                           2.  LEAN VITTER                                 13                           3.  LEAN EDWARDS                                13                           4.  EDWARDS               50          53        32                          98.  NOT SURE              10*          9*       14                          *ALL WHITES                                                         TOTAL EDWARDS         50%         53%       45%                              TOTAL VITTER          40          38        41                                               NOTES:   MONDAY AND TUESDAY WAS A 600 SAMPLE AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A 600 SAMPLE                WHICH PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON OF ANY CANDIDATE MOVEMENT WITH NO OVERLAP                IN THE SAMPLES.  BELOW ARE THE RESULTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY 600 WHICH CAN BE                COMPARED WITH THE ABOVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 600.                                             ADJUSTED  ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED                                              20% AA    26% AA                   1.  VITTER                    41%       38%      28%                        2.  LEAN VITTER                                  13                        3.  LEAN EDWARDS                                 13                        4.  EDWARDS                   48        52       34                       98.  UNDECIDED                 11*       10*      12                         *All white voters                                                   EDWARDS                              48%        52%      48%               VITTER                               41%        38%      41%                              WITH AN EXPECTED 26% BLACK PARTICIPATION, AND SOME SAY HIGHER, EDWARDS MOVED               FROM 53% TO 52% AND VITTER WENT STAYED AT 38%.  OF COURSE VITTER WILL DO SOMEWHAT               BETTER WITH WHITE UNDECIDED WHO VOTE GETTING ABOUT 5% COMPARED TO EDWARDS 4% BASED ON                NEWEST DATA MAKING THE RACE EDWARDS 57% AND VITTER 43%. IF FEWER UNDECIED WHITES                VOTE THE RESULTS WOULD STILL BE EDWARDS 57% AND VITTER 43% BECAUSE OF A SMALLER                MAKE UP OF WHITES IN THE ELECTION.               WHITE CROSSTABS SHOW SOME INTERESTING FACTS:  EDWARDS MADE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING               THE THREE DAY LAST TRACK AND VITTER DECLINED SLIGHTLY; VITTER IS GETTING 77% OF THE               51% OF ACTUAL AND LEANING REPUBLICANS AND EDWARDS IS GETTING 88% OF THE 26% OF                ACTUAL AND LEANING WHITE DEMOCRATES WITH EDWARDS GETTING 43% AND VITTER 37% OF THE 23%               OF COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT WHITES; OF THE 24% OF ALL VOTERS WHO ARE WHITE EVANGELICANS               RESULTS WERE VITTER 53% AND EDWARDS 38%; OF THE 27% OF ALL VOTERS WHO ARE WHITES 65                 OR OLDER VITTER 49% AND EDWARDS 44%; VITTER HAS A GENDER GAP OF 5% MORE MEN THAN WOMEN                                          AND EDWARDS 5% MORE WOMEN THAN MEN.               EDWARDS CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG LEAD AND HAS OVERCOME WHATEVER HAPPENED BETWEEN               THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SAMPLES.  WITH ONE WEEK REMAINNG VITTER WILL HAVE A               MAYOR TASK TO PASS EDWARDS. AT THIS POINT VITTER MUCH TAKE RISKS TO OVERCOME               EDWARDS’ ADVANTAGE AND EDWARDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR VOTER OPINION AND                RUN OUT THE CLOCK TAKENING FEW IF ANY RISKS BUT RUNNING A POSITIVE CAMPAIGN               EXCEPT TO RESPOND TO ANY VITTER ATTACKS WHICH MOVE VOTERS. 

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