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Thursday MRI tracking Poll, Edwards- Vitter, Syria Refugee impact, Nungesser, Landry
  // Thursday, 19 November 2015 17:49 //

 edwardsThe Verne Kennedy tracking poll is in for Thursday with a sample of 900 or 300 per night up until last night.

Jeff Crouere, Ron Faucheux and I discussed the poll results today in a Bayoubuzz Blab.  That video is online at bayoubuzz.com.

In summary, based upon discussions with Verne Kennedy and analysis of this poll with Ron Faucheux, there is some narrowing by Vitter, but, by only by roughly .5%.

Overall, the survey results do show more whites moving to Vitter, which he needs and less African Americans actually saying they are going to vote.

Has the major issue of the moment thhe Syria Refugee controversy made any real dent in John Bel Edwards' lead over Vitter?  It appears that based upon the poll numbers it is somewhat neglible, but Crouere and Faucheux have varying views.

Hurting Vitter are his unfavorables.   

Ultimately, the big factor is the black turnout.  Kennedy notes that in raw nnumbers, Edwards has a five point lead but after reconfigring based upon Africann American turnout, the lead could be as low as six point differential a(if the black turnout would be 20% and as high as 15 (if the turnout would be 30%).

Here is the MRI results and a link to the pdf.

Do watch the discussion with Crouere and Faucheux which i believe you will find useful:

MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 16-18, 2015 900 SAMPLE

      OVERALL RESULTS WITH 300 PWE NIGHT

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    1. HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF

                     ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE OFFICES:

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  DEFINITELY VOTING               796   88     

                      2.  PROBABLY VOTING                 104   12     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    2. NIGHT. BY OBSERVATION

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      6.  NIGHT 6                         301   33     

                      7.  NIGHT 7                         299   33     

                      8.  NIGHT 8                         300   33     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    3. JOHN BEL EDWARDS

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  STRONGLY FAVORABLE              228   25     

                      2.  SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE              220   24     

                      3.  SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE            187   21     

                      4.  STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE            113   13     

                      5.  NO OPINION                      148   16     

                      6.  NOT AWARE                         4    0     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

                          FAVORABLE                       448   50  

                          UNFAVORABLE                     300   33  

                          NET FAVORABLE                   148   16%   

                          FAVOR : UNFAVOR               1.5:1      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT                                  11-19-2015    PAGE  OV-1


 

 

 

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8

      OVERALL RESULTS

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    4. DAVID VITTER

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  STRONGLY FAVORABLE              178   20     

                      2.  SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE              218   24     

                      3.  SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE            175   19     

                      4.  STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE            186   21     

                      5.  NO OPINION                      139   15     

                      6.  NOT AWARE                         4    0     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

                          FAVORABLE                       396   44%    

                          UNFAVORABLE                     361   40%    

                          NET FAVORABLE                    35    4%   

                          FAVOR : UNFAVOR               1.1:1      

 

 

                   NOTES:  VITTER CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH UNFAVORABLES OF 40% WITH ONLY 4% HIGHER

                           FAVORABLE.  EDWARDS HAS 50% FAVORABLE WITH 33% UNFAVORABLE FOR A NET

                           DIFFERENCE OF 16% COMPARED TO 4% FOR VITTER.  VITTER’S FAVORABLES ARE

                           IN A SLOW DECLINE AND EDWARDS SHOW IMPROVE OF AT LEAST 1% PER DAY IN THE

                           THREE DAYS.

 

      QUESTION    5.

  IF THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY,

                     WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: JOHN BEL EDWARDS,A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER,

                     A REPUBLICAN? IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED

                     ABOUT YOUR VOTE FOR GOVERNOR, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD:

                     JOHN BEL EDWARDS, A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER, A REPUBLICAN?

                       

                                         ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED

                                           20%AA    26%AA    30%AA

  

                      1.  VITTER            43%      40%       39%     33%     

                      2.  LEAN VITTER                                   9     

                      3.  LEAN EDWARDS                                 11     

                      4.  EDWARDS           49       52        54      36     

                     98.  NOT SURE           7%       8*        7*     11     

 

                                                

 

                          EDWARDS            49%      52%      54%     47%    

                          VITTER             43       40       39      42%    

                         

 

 

                  NOTES:  WHITES FOR THREE DAYS 900 SAMPLE 26% AA VITTER 52% EDWARDS 38%.  FOR

                          MONDAY 300 SAMPLE VITTER 51%, TUESDAY 51, AND WEDNESDY 52%.  EDWARDS

                          ALL WHITES MONDAY 40%, TUESDAY 37%, AND WEDNESDAY 39%.  NO MAJOR

                          MOVEMENTS AMONG WHITE EXCEPT VITTER GAINING AN AVERAGE OF ALMOST

                          ONE-HALF PERCENT AMONG WHITES PER NIGHT WITH ONLY TWO NIGHTS TO GO.

                          AT 26% AA FACTORING IN UNDECIDED WHITES RACE IS ABOUT EDWARDS 55% AND

VITTER 45%.  IF HIGHER THAN 26% AA TURNOUT THE DIFFERENCE WIDDENS IN                                                  EDWARDS’ FAVOR. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC SUPPORT AMONG WHITES.

                         ALTHOGH BOTH MAINTAIN STRONG WHITE SUPPORT WITH PARTY VOTERS, EDWARDS

                         LEADS VITTER 46% TO 36% AMONG INDEPENDENTS AND THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED

                         BY 1% AMONG WHITE 65 YEARS PLUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT                                  11-19-2015    PAGE  OV-2


 

 

 

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8

      OVERALL RESULTS

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    6. IN A RUN-OFF ELECTION FOR LT. GOVERNOR HELD TODAY,

                     WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: MELVIN “KIP” HOLDEN, A DEMOCRAT

                     OR WILLIAM “BILLY” NUNGESSER, A REPUBLICAN?

                     IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED ABOUT

                     YOUR VOTE FOR LT. GOVERNOR, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD:

                     MELVIN “KIP” HOLDEN, A DEMOCRAT OR WILLIAM “BILLY” NUNGESSER,

                     A REPUBLICAN?

                                        ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED

                                         20%AA     26%AA    30%AA   

                      

                                                                  

                      1.  HOLDEN            38%      42%       44%      28%     

                      2.  LEAN HOLDEN                                    7     

                      3.  LEAN NUNGESSER                                10     

                      4.  NUNGESSER         51       49        47       43     

                     98.  NOT SURE          11*       9*        8*      13     

                    

                                                  

                          NUNGESSER         51%      49%       47%      53%    

                          HOLDEN            38       42        44       34    

                         

                  NOTES:  HOLDEN DID INCREASE HIS WHITE VOTE 6% FOR THE 300 SAMPLE

                  WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE THINGS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME AND A 300

                  SAMPLE HAS ALMOST A 6% ERROR FACTOR. 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    7. IN A RUN-OFF ELECTION FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL HELD TODAY,

                     WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: BUDDY CALDWELL, A REPUBLICAN OR

                     JEFF LANDRY, A REPUBLICAN? IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN

                     THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED ABOUT YOUR VOTE FOR ATTORNEY

                     GENERAL, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD: BUDDY CALDWELL, A REPUBLICAN

                     OR JEFF LANDRY, A REPUBLICAN?

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  CALDWELL                        228   26     

                      2.  LEAN CALDWELL                    94   11     

                      3.  LEAN LANDRY                      98   11     

                      4.  LANDRY                          305   35     

                     98.  NOT SURE                        156   18     

                    

 

                                                

 

                          LANDRY                          403   46%    

                          CALDWELL                        322   37%    

                         

 

                     NOTES:  LANDRY CONTINUES TO LEAD AMONG WHITES BUT LANDRY LOST

                             5% WEDNESDAY BUT AGAIN WITH A 300 SAMPLE.  CALDWELL LEADS LANDRY

                             ALMOST TWO TO ONE WITH BLACKS.  THE ONLY THING THAT COULD REVERSE               

                             AT THIS TIME IS CALDWELL GETTING ALMOST 80% OF A LARGE BLACK

                             PARTICIPATION OF ABOUT 30%. THAT COMBINED WITH 37% OF WHITES WOULD

                             GIVE CALDWELL OVER 50% IF COMBINED WITH 37% PLUS OF WHITES.  CALDWEL IS

                             CURRENTLY 34% AMONG WHITES WITH 15% UNDECIDED WHICH WOULD EASILY

                             PUSH HIM ABOVE 37%.

    

 

 

 

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8

      OVERALL RESULTS

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    8. REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE, DO YOU THINK

                     OF YOURSELF AS A REPUBLICAN, A DEMOCRAT, OR AN INDEPENDENT?

                     (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK…)  DO YOU LEAN MORE TOWARD THINKING OF

                     YOURSELF AS A REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRAT?

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  DEMOCRAT                        257   29     

                      2.  INDEPENDENT DEMOCRAT             79    9     

                      3.  COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT          172   19     

                      4.  INDEPENDENT REPUBLICAN           90   10     

                      5.  REPUBLICAN                      302   34     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

                          REPUBLICAN                      392   44%    

                          DEMOCRAT                        336   37%    

                          NET REPUBLICAN                   56    7%   

                          REP : DEM                     1.2:1      

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION    9. DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF A BORN-AGAIN OR

                     EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN? (IF YES, ASK…)

                     IN A TYPICAL MONTH, HOW MANY TIMES DO

                     YOU GO TO CHURCH?

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  NOT EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN C    286   33     

                      2.  EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN <4 TIM    330   38     

                      3.  EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN/>4 TIM    246   28     

                     98.  NOT SURE                         13    1     

                     99.  REFUSED                          25          

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   10. AGE

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  18-34                            72    8     

                      2.  35-44                           106   12     

                      3.  45-54                           206   23     

                      4.  55-64                           192   21     

                      5.  65+                             324   36     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

     MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT                                  11-19-2015    PAGE  OV-4


 

 

 

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8

      OVERALL RESULTS

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   11. ETHNICITY

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  AFRICAN-AMERICAN                205   23     

                      2.  ETHNIC MAJORITY (WHITE)         672   75     

                      3.  HISPANIC                         23    3     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   12. AFFILIATION

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  DEMOCRAT                        455   51     

                      2.  REPUBLICAN                      325   36     

                      3.  UNAFFILIATED                    120   13     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   13. GENDER

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  MALE                            428   48     

                      2.  FEMALE                          472   52     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   14. DMA

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  ALEXANDRIA                       58    6     

                      2.  BATON ROUGE                     201   22     

                      3.  LAFAYETTE                       145   16     

                      4.  LAKE CHARLES                     43    5     

                      5.  MONROE-EL DORADO                 97   11     

                      6.  NEW ORLEANS                     260   29     

                      7.  SHREVEPORT                       96   11     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

 

 

 

     MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT                                  11-19-2015    PAGE  OV-5


 

 

 

 

 

      LOUISIANA RUN-OFF

      SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT

      NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8

      OVERALL RESULTS

 

 

 

 

      QUESTION   15. CELL PHONES

                      

                                                            #    %  

                      1.  YES                             181   20     

                      2.  NO                              719   80     

 

                                                 TOTAL    900 

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