Billy Tauzin and Jim Brown LIVE

Wednesday, 25 November 2015 12:36
UNO's Chervenak says Edwards v. Vitter election further proof of live interviewers vs. automated polls

chervenak brown nov25We hear the complaint that political polls are not accurate and so why use them?  In the recent Louisiana governor’s race with David Vitter against Jon Bel Edwards, there were some polls that were very accurate and others who missed the mark significantly.

(Below is an incomplete list compiled by Huffington Post  The list did not include a tracking poll by Verne Kennedy of MRI, which the day prior to the elections, determined Edwards 55 to Vitter’s 45, one point off of the 56-44 spread.

Another tracking poll, the day prior to Election day, by Greg Rigamer found Edwards 50- Vitter 40 with the rest undecided.

There were some conservative or Republican polls that consistently found the candidates apart by single digits.

Here is the question by Jim Brown to UNO’s Ed Chervenak, discussing current polls accuracies.

Jim Brown: Well we talk to Ed and other pollsters about how accurate polls are and there have been some national articles about the fact that it's pretty hard to pinpoint numbers and the poll. So many people have cell phones, you can't get a hold of them, young people being disinterested, and how you balance out African-American voters, and it's just much much tougher today--I've got to tell you, I've been very impressed with Ed and with the other major polls that were independent polls that basically were calling this race pretty solidly--a big lead initially for John Bel Edwards, tightened up with the Syrian episode and landed about where I would've thought it should land, so Ed, I wish you'd  comment on that--can you get pretty accurate polling, we did in Louisiana, what about these naysayers who say these pollsters just get paid these big fees and are desperate.

Ed Chervenak: They're not paying me those big fees that's for sure. It is a difficult terrain for the public opinion industry and for political polling, especially--we have seen some disasters, I guess recently, that's a way we can call it, we saw in Great Britain, I think about other events in foreign countries, we saw it in Kentucky where the pollsters were way off and a lot of this has to do about the fact with that people's relationship with their phones have changed over time, that 50 years ago, everyone had an land line and that everyone answered the phone. Today, less than half of Americans have a landline and they don't answer the phone. There's all this technology, you have call waiting, you have answering machines that screen out pollsters and have basically reduced response rates. So it has become more difficult but one of the differences I saw in the accuracy of the polls was the more accurate polls were the ones who use the live interviewers rather than the automated calling.  I think using live interviews is the best way to go, it is expensive, but I think you get higher response rates and a more accurate sample by using live interviews.

huffpost 1


Media Sources


Login to post comments
  • Despite 5th plea, Schiff says House Intelligence Committee pursues Flynn's documents
  • Facebook Live: Discuss harm of Trump budget proposal on Louisiana coastal economy, restoration
  • Governor Edwards welcomes Pence with Medicaid, budget, Louisiana coast wishlist
  • World Premiere tonight in N.O. Bilderberg, the Movie

flynn2Despite General Michael Flynn’s announcement via his counsel that the General and former head of National Security, would take the 5th Amendment in Congressional proceedings, the Intelligence Committee will pursue information, regardless.

Read More

560 usgs land loss map 2The efforts to rebuild the Louisiana coast has suffered a major and immediate setback, assuming that Congress goes along with the most recent budget proposal from President Trump.

Read More

penceToday, Governor John Bel Edwards welcomed Vice President Mike Pence to Louisiana as he Veep is attending a event with top Louisianqa Republican officials. Along with the welcome, however, is a wishlist of requests including an item of recent vinctage involving the current Trump budget which tears a hole into the funding for the Louisiana coastal restoration. 

Read More

bilderbergIt is always an honor when a movie premiere is held in New Orleans and tonight is no exception. At 7:30 p.m. Bilderberg, the Movie will premiere at the historic Prytania Theatre, 5339 Prytania Street.

Read More


Sen. Appel talks budget, economy


Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1