When I first discovered that a conservative Baton Rouge polling firm, Magellan, announced its poll on Monday, I started to look around the internet to see commentary about the poll.
I saw that one ultra-conservative publication immediately lambasted a recent SMOR poll claiming that it was untrustworthy and obviously putting more stock in the Magellan poll which results would make republicans and conservatives much more comfortable.
"Untrustworthy" and "skewed" is kind of a mantra among some voters and some media now-a-days to condemn polls they don’t like and extoll those they do.
This online publication essentailly stated that the SMOR polls should not be trusted because this one showed Mary Landrieu to be the most popular statewide elected official, that the voters are upset with the way the Jindal administration is handling some budget cuts and that Obama was in mid-single figures away from Romney, to be reasons not to trust SMOR.
After reviewing the more recent poll which I then received from Magellan, I started to see an obvious difference in the two polls.
I wrote about that difference Monday afternoon submitting my beliefs that the polls were measuring two different pools of voters and had two different objectives: Bernie Pinsonat’s SMOR poll was measuring all voters and the Magellan was measuring likely voters. Also, the Pinsonat poll was an issue-oriented poll that included potential races in the future but again, it measured all voters.
Today, the Advertiser published an article that put much more meat on the polls bones:
The Magellan Strategies poll released Monday shows Romney leading President Obama by more than 22 points – 58.8 percent Romney, 36.2 percent Obama and 4.9 percent undecided.
Diez said this poll tracks closely to the 2008 presidential election results in Louisiana which showed Sen. John McCain carrying the state with 58.6 percent to Obama’s 39.9 percent.
In that election, McCain got 1.147 million votes in Louisiana to Obama’s 780,981.
Magellan’s results conflict with a Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 11-20, which showed 45 percent of voters saying they would vote for Romney, 39 percent for Obama and 17 percent undecided.
Pinsonat said those results indicate “the 2012 election may not be as lopsided as 2008.”
Diez, a former staff member for U.S. Sen. David Vitter and chair of Vitter’s Committee to Elect a Republican Majority, said “90 percent of the difference” of the polls’ results comes from the sampling of voters.
Pinsonat “interviewed 31 percent African-Americans,” he said. That sampling would give Obama a more favorable rating than the 25 percent African-American sampling in the Magellan poll.
Almost 31 percent of the state’s registered voters are African-American but, as with white registered voters, many don’t vote. Louisiana has one of the highest percentage of registered voters in the nation, said Secretary of State Tom Schedler, but one of the lower percentages of voter turnout.
The Southern Media poll questioned all voters. The Magellan poll questioned “likely” voters.
The image factor figures into differences between the Magellan and Southern Media polls.
Pinsonat states that his poll deals more with public opinion than politics on a number of issues, like the job performance of Gov. Bobby Jindal how the public feels about the Jindal administration cuts to health care, educationhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/icon1.png" > reforms, high salaries for state employees and eliminating tax exemptions. On the state and national scenes, respondents were asked to rate job performance, not whether they would re-elect.
“Nationwide, his (Obama’s) image is better than his job.
So, instead of suggesting that Pinsonat’s poll favored democrats and therefore could not be trustworthy neglects to look at the obvious—the facts.
Also, one little bit of information should also be discussed--the person funding the poll was conservative businessman, Lane Grigsby, a person some call Mr. Republican.
So, is the SMOR poll untrustworthy? Let me put it this way--do you think that Grigsby would commission another SMOR poll (as he has done in the past) which findings would send shivers down the spines of republicans and therefore be cited as biased against his own party?
Don’t think so. Instead, I believe Grigsby is paying for a poll and he wants to take the voters temperature of the public whether it reflects a fever or not.
Jindal and GOP Governors
Yesterday, we discovered that Governor Bobby Jindal will be heading the GOP Governors Association for 2013 followed by New Jersey’s Chris Christie’s term for 2014.
Jindal should be congratulated for that achievement. Jindal has hit the national stage with great gusto and will make a formidable presence for the party.
Whether the Louisiana voters are pleased about that announcement, however, is another matter.
Pinsonat’s poll indicated that Louisiana voters are not happy about his outside politicking.
However, the announcement might end the speculation as to the future whereabouts of Governor Jindal after the Presidential election. Some observers have postured that Jindal would be-heading off to richer pastures, perhaps a national cabinet spot under a Romney administration.
While, that appears to still be possible, it seems this selection means just the opposite—that for better or for worse, Louisiana will see Governor Jindal at the state capitol and at the mansion (and on national TV) at least through the end of 2013 and maybe right in time for a race for U.S. Senate against Mary Landrieu.
I guess we will just have to wait and see a little longer as to the future of Bobby Jindal.
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