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Louisiana poll: Vitter edges Georges, Jindal's popularity, jobs and economy tops

georgesDemocrat John Georges released a poll, reportedly conducted by a statewide business group, today of 600 likely voters in Louisiana that indicates that were he a candidate for Governor, replacing current head of state, Bobby Jindal, he would be very competitive.

 

the survey also indicated that the race is wide open.
The poll, performed by Dr. Verne R. Kennedy of Market Research Insight from Alabama also evaluated the relative weight of issues important to the voters, head to head competition between Georges and prospective candidates  current U.S. Senator David Vitter, Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne, Louisiana Treasurer John Kennedy and Jefferson Parish Sheriff, Newell Normand.  All of those possible candidates are Republicans.

The MRI poll, repotedly condu conducted a poll of the current popularity of Jindal.

According to the poll, Georges, if no other candidate or Democrat were to run would be in a dead heat with Vitter, both with 20% if all above-named Republicans were to run.  Following Georges and Vitter would be Dardenne (14%), Kennedy (9%) and Norman (3%). 

However, Vitter would beat Georges in a one-on-one battle by 37% to 33%.

The poll also stated that Jindal's favorables were 53%.

The MRI survey indicated that 

Jobs, wages and the economy were weighted as the most important issue facing the voters (32%) followed by education and lack of funds for schools (25%).

The poll showed the race to be wide open with Jindal term limited, and many political pundits believe there will be more candidates entering the field and perhaps fewer of the above-named republicans.

Georges ran for governor in 2007 as an independent against Jindal and others and considered competing against Jindal in 2011.  He became a Democrat prior to his run for Mayor of New Orleans against Mitch Landrieu in the last city election.  

Here is the Verne Kennedy poll, conducted June 11-15:   

 

SURVEY NAME:       LOUISIANA STATEWIDE SURVEY

SAMPLE SIZE:          600 LIKELY VOTERS

FIELD DATES:          JUNE 11-15, 2012

JOB NUMBER:         12133                                                              TOPLINES WITH GRAPHS

Hello, my name is ______________________ with Market Research Insight, a nationally recognized public opinion polling firm.  We do not sell anything.  Tonight/Today, we are conducting a public opinion survey among Louisiana voters. 

Are you or anyone in this household employed in:

            The news media?                                                       (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)

            An advertising or public relations company?              (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)

Is or works directly for an elected public official?      (IF YES, POLITELY TERMINATE)

1.         In which Louisiana Parish do you live?  (PROBE)

DMA

New Orleans

33%

Baton Rouge

21%

Lafayette

14%

Shreveport

11%

Monroe

10%

Alexandria

5%

Lake Charles

5%

2.         Would you say things in Louisiana are moving on the right track and getting better, or off on the wrong track and getting worse?  (CONTINUE WITH...)  Do you feel strongly about that?

DIRECTION OF LOUISIANA

Strongly Wrong Track

17%

Wrong Track

10%

Staying About The Same/Uncertain

30%

Right Track

29%

Strongly Right Track

14%

Total Wrong Track

27%

Total Right Track

43%


3.         What do you consider the single major problem facing Louisiana now?  (PROBE)

MAJOR PROBLEM FACING LOUISIANA

Lack of Jobs, Low Wages, Poor Economy

32%

Education, Lack of Funds for Schools

25%

Crime, Drugs

11%

Lack of Leadership, Government Corruption, Politics

11%

Taxes, Budget, Spending

6%

Lack of Affordable Healthcare

3%

Poverty, Welfare Abuse, Social Services

2%

Traffic, Roads, Infrastructure

2%

Coastal Erosion, Environmental Issues

1%

Lack of Economic Development

1%

Oil Spill, Ban on Drilling, Clean Up

1%

No Problems

1%

Uncertain

1%

Other

4%

4.         As I read a list of names, please tell whether or not you are familiar with each name.  If you have never heard the name just say so.  (RANDOM ORDER) The first/next name is Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

JAY DARDENNE NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

16%

Favorable Recognition

32%

Neutral Recognition

38%

Unfavorable Recognition

14%

Total Awareness

84%

Hard Opinion Recognition

46%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

2.3:1


5.         The first/next name is John Georges, a Jefferson Parish businessman and former candidate for Governor.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

JOHN GEORGES NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

50%

Favorable Recognition

16%

Neutral Recognition

26%

Unfavorable Recognition

8%

Total Awareness

50%

Hard Opinion Recognition

24%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

2.0:1

6.         The first/next name is Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

BOBBY JINDAL NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

0%

Favorable Recognition

50%

Neutral Recognition

15%

Unfavorable Recognition

35%

Total Awareness

100%

Hard Opinion Recognition

85%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

1.4:1


7.         The first/next name is State Treasurer John Kennedy.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

JOHN KENNEDY NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

29%

Favorable Recognition

30%

Neutral Recognition

34%

Unfavorable Recognition

8%

Total Awareness

71%

Hard Opinion Recognition

38%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

3.8:1

8.         The first/next name is Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

NEWELL NORMAND NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

59%

Favorable Recognition

20%

Neutral Recognition

15%

Unfavorable Recognition

6%

Total Awareness

41%

Hard Opinion Recognition

26%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

3.3:1


9.         The first/next name is United States Senator David Vitter.  (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK…)  Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?

DAVID VITTER NAME RECOGNITION

No Recognition

4%

Favorable Recognition

42%

Neutral Recognition

28%

Unfavorable Recognition

27%

Total Awareness

96%

Hard Opinion Recognition

69%

Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

1.6:1

The following graphs summarize name recognition results.  The first graph provides total recognition and the second graph looks at favorable and unfavorable opinion.  The third graph shows the favorable to unfavorable opinion ratio. 

 

 

 

(See graphs on following pages)


10.       Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job Bobby Jindal is doing as Governor? (CONTINUE WITH…) Would that be very (SATISFIED/DISSATISFIED) or somewhat (SATISFIED/DISSATISFIED)?

SATISFACTION WITH JOB BOBBY JINDAL IS DOING AS GOVERNOR

Very Dissatisfied

28%

Somewhat Dissatisfied

11%

Undecided

9%

Somewhat Satisfied

31%

Very Satisfied

22%

Total Dissatisfied

39%

Total Satisfied

53%

11.       Before too long, Louisiana voters will begin thinking about electing a new Governor.  If that election were held today, which of the following would you favor for Governor between (RANDOM ORDER WITH POLITICAL PARTY) Republicans Jay Dardenne, John Kennedy, Newell Normand, David Vitter, and John Georges, a Democrat? 

TRIAL HEAT

John Georges (D)

20%

David Vitter (R)

20%

Jay Dardenne (R)

14%

John Kennedy (R)

9%

Newell Normand (R)

3%

Undecided

33%

12.       As I mention several other possibilities in an election for Governor, please tell me which one you favor between (ROTATE ORDER) David Vitter, a Republican and John Georges, a Democrat? 

TRIAL HEAT

David Vitter (R)

37%

John Georges (D)

33%

Undecided

30%


13.       Between (ROTATE ORDER) Newell Normand, a Republican and John Georges, a Democrat? 

TRIAL HEAT

John Georges (D)

31%

Newell Normand (R)

23%

Undecided

46%

14.       John Georges is a Louisiana businessman who built a billion dollar grocery business called Imperial Trading and created thousands of jobs. He served on the State Board of Regents, the governing board of higher Education, under Edwin Edwards and Governor Mike Foster for seven years.  He ran for Governor in 2007 against Bobby Jindal and put up millions of dollars of his own money.  In the campaign, he pledged not to take money from anybody with a state contract.  He pledged to eliminate income taxes from anyone over 65 years old and produced the Georges’ Plan for Louisiana.  He pledges to not take a salary until the unemployment rate is cut in half and people are back at work.  Once again, he pledges to put up his own money.  John Georges is the founder of Louisiana Lemonade Day.  He is someone who has donated millions of dollars to charities including schools, universities, and churches.  

            Now that you have learned more about John Georges, does he sound like someone you would definitely consider, probably consider, probably not consider, or definitely not consider as Governor?  (IF ASKED WHAT PARTY, SAY…)  He is a Democrat.

JOHN GEORGES BIOGRAPHY

Definitely Consider

27%

Probably Consider

46%

Probably Not Consider

6%

Definitely Not Consider

7%

Makes No Difference/Uncertain

14%

Total Consider

73%

Total Not Consider

13%


15.       Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand is a Republican, an attorney, and someone who would have the support of the Chairman of the Republican Party and the Louisiana Sheriffs Association if he runs for Governor. Newell Norman is very popular in Jefferson Parish and won re-election for Sheriff overwhelmingly.  As Sheriff, he has lowered the crime rate so well his Department has become a model for the state.  Does Newell Normand sound like someone you would definitely consider, probably consider, probably not consider, or definitely not consider as Governor?

NEWELL NORMAND BIOGRAPHY

Definitely Consider

11%

Probably Consider

41%

Probably Not Consider

12%

Definitely Not Consider

19%

Makes No Difference/Uncertain

17%

Total Consider

52%

Total Not Consider

31%

16.       If Governor Bobby Jindal endorsed a candidate for Governor, would that make it more likely that you would vote for that candidate or vote against that candidate?  (CONTINUE WITH…) Do you feel strongly about that?

VOTE FOR CANDIDATE ENDORSED BY

GOVERNOR BOBBY JINDAL

Strongly Vote For

14%

Vote For

15%

Makes No Difference/Uncertain

40%

Vote Against

6%

Strongly Vote Against

25%

Total Vote For

29%

Total Vote Against

31%


17.       After taking part in surveys like this, some people say they have changed their opinion on some questions.  Regardless of your answer earlier, which candidate would you favor for Governor between (RANDOM ORDER WITH POLITICAL PARTY) Republicans Jay Dardenne, John Kennedy, Newell Normand, David Vitter, and John Georges, a Democrat? 

.

POST SURVEY TRIAL HEAT

John Georges (D)

 27%

David Vitter (R)

19%

Jay Dardenne (R)

11%

John Kennedy (R)

6%

Newell Normand (R)

5%

Undecided

 32%

Thank you, that completes the opinion section of the survey.  Now, a few questions for demographic purposes and we’ll be finished.

18.       Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?  (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK…) Do you lean more toward thinking of yourself as a Republican or a Democrat?

POLITICAL SELF IDENTIFICATION

Democrat

34%

Independent Democrat

7%

Completely Independent

12%

Independent Republican

9%

Republican

37%

Total Democrat

41%

Total Republican

46%


19.       Louisiana elects Democrats and Republicans for statewide offices.  Regardless of your political party identification, would you say for the next Governor you would vote for (ROTATE ORDER) only a Democrat, only a Republican or it depends on who is running?

PARTY FOR NEXT GOVERNOR YOU WOULD VOTE FOR

Only Vote For A Democrat

19%

Only Vote For A Republican

12%

It Depends On Who Is Running

66%

Uncertain

3%

20.       Regardless of how you think of yourself politically, how do you think you will vote in most future elections:  (ROTATE ORDER) only for Democrats, mainly for Democrats, more Democrats than Republicans, about equally Democrats and Republicans, more Republicans than Democrats, mainly for Republicans, only for Republicans?

VOTING INTENTIONS FOR FUTURE ELECTIONS

Only For Democrats

14%

Mainly For Democrats

9%

More Democrats Than Republicans

8%

About Equally Democrats And Republicans/Uncertain

32%

More Republicans Than Democrats

12%

Mainly For Republicans

19%

Only For Republicans

6%

Total Democrats

31%

Total Republicans

37%

21.       What is your age?

VOTER AGE

18-34 Years

18%

35-44 Years

18%

45-54 Years

23%

55-64 Years

21%

65 & Over

20%


22.       What is the occupation of the head of this household?  (IF RETIRED OR DISABLED, ASK…)  What did he or she do before that?

HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OCCUPATION

Professional

9%

Sales, Technical, Clerical

53%

Labor

34%

Other

4%

23.       Do you consider yourself a Born-Again or Evangelical Christian?  (IF YES, ASK…) In a typical month, how many times do you go to church?

EVANGELICAL CHURCH ATTENDANCE

Not Evangelical

54%

Less Than 4 Monthly

14%

Four Times or More

32%

24.       And, your gender is male or female?  (CONTINUE WITH...)  Are you employed outside the home?

GENDER AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS

Employed Male

35%

Not Employed Male

12%

Employed Female

28%

Not Employed Female

25%

25.       In addition to being American, what do you consider to be your main ethnic background?

ETHNIC BACKGROUND

African-American

28%

Ethnic Majority

70%

Hispanic

2%

Other

1%

This concludes our survey.  Thank you for your time


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