In his email Faucheux noted that the 2 point lead “average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).
In an historical comparison, Faucheux noted that at this time in the elections of the past, Reagan approval was a lofty 58% and Jimmy Carter’s approval was a lowly 31%.
How close was these approval ranking?
Looking at only two, Reagan won the 1984 election with 58.8% to Walter Mondale's 40.6%. Mondale received a mere 13 electoral college votes only capturing the state of Michigan and the District of Columbia.
In 1980, Reagan took 57% of the vote with President Jimmy Carter only receiving 41% and third-party candidate John Anderson taking 6.6%.
YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE
OBAMA APPROVAL: CLARUS AVERAGE 49%
(no change from yesterday; down 1 from a week ago)
Reagan at this point: 58%
Clinton at this point: 54%
Bush 43 at this point: 51%
Bush 41 at this point: 34%
Carter at this point: 31%
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONWIDE: CLARUS AVERAGE*
Romney over Obama +2
Note: This average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).
PRESIDENT: BY STATE**
Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +1
Ohio: Obama over Romney (a) +1, (b) +3
Nevada: Obama over Romney +3
Florida: Obama over Romney +3
New Jersey (R poll): Obama over Romney +7
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) over Tammy Baldwin (D) +1
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) +5 Nevada average: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Shelley Berkley (D) +7
U.S. SENATE: POLLING STATUS REPORT
The following party margins are based on recent polling averages: (DO = open Democratic seat, RO = open Republican seat, DI = Democratic incumbent, RI = Republican incumbent).
North Dakota (DO) EVEN
Montana (DI) D+1
Massachusetts (RI) D+2
Wisconsin (DO) D+2
Indiana (RO) R+2
Virginia (DO) D+2
Connecticut (DO) D+2
Arizona (RO) D+3
Pennsylvania (DI) D+5
Florida (DI) D+5
Ohio (DI) D+6
Missouri (DI) D+6
Nevada (RI) R+7
New Mexico (DO) D+11
Michigan (DI) D+12
Hawaii (DO) D+16
Florida-22: Lois Frankel (D) over Adam Hasner (R) +3
New Mexico-1: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Janice Arnold-Jones (R)
New Mexico-2: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) over Evelyn Madrid Erhard (D) +24
New Mexico-3: Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Jeff Byrd (R) +24
Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported
Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from
* Average based on three most recently released nationwide polls:
Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP.
** PRESIDENTIAL: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: (a) Rasmussen, (b)
SurveyUSA; NV: Rasmussen; FL: JZ Analytics/Newsmax; NJ: Neighborhood
*** SENATE: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: SurveyUSA: NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA,
**** U.S. HOUSE: FL: PPP(D); NM-1,2,3: Albuquerque Journal
Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses,
our website at www.ClarusRG.com. Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.