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Thursday, 18 October 2012 01:26
Faucheux Polls: Obama approval 49%, Romney up by 2
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voteRon Faucheux, President of Clarus Inc. has released its daily “Lunchtime Politics” email showing that President Obama’s approval remains at 49% from Wednesday and is two points below Republican candidate Mitt Romney in the Presidential race.



In his email Faucheux noted that the 2 point lead “average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).

In an historical comparison, Faucheux noted that at this time in the elections of the past, Reagan approval was a lofty 58% and Jimmy Carter’s approval was a lowly 31%.

How close was these approval ranking?

Looking at only two, Reagan won the 1984 election with 58.8% to Walter Mondale's 40.6%.  Mondale received a mere 13 electoral college votes only capturing the state of Michigan and the District of Columbia.

 In 1980, Reagan took 57% of the vote with President Jimmy Carter only receiving 41% and third-party candidate John Anderson taking 6.6%.



(no change from yesterday; down 1 from a week ago)


Reagan at this point: 58%

Clinton at this point: 54%

Bush 43 at this point: 51%

Bush 41 at this point: 34%

Carter at this point: 31%


Romney over Obama +2

Note: This average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).


Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +1

Ohio: Obama over Romney (a) +1, (b) +3

Nevada: Obama over Romney +3

Florida: Obama over Romney +3

New Jersey (R poll): Obama over Romney +7


Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) over Tammy Baldwin (D) +1

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) +5 Nevada average: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Shelley Berkley (D) +7


The following party margins are based on recent polling averages: (DO = open Democratic seat, RO = open Republican seat, DI = Democratic incumbent, RI = Republican incumbent).

North Dakota (DO) EVEN

Montana (DI) D+1

Massachusetts (RI) D+2

Wisconsin (DO) D+2

Indiana (RO) R+2

Virginia (DO) D+2

Connecticut (DO) D+2

Arizona (RO) D+3

Pennsylvania (DI) D+5

Florida (DI) D+5

Ohio (DI) D+6

Missouri (DI) D+6

Nevada (RI) R+7

New Mexico (DO) D+11

Michigan (DI) D+12

Hawaii (DO) D+16

U.S. HOUSE****

Florida-22: Lois Frankel (D) over Adam Hasner (R) +3

New Mexico-1: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Janice Arnold-Jones (R)


New Mexico-2: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) over Evelyn Madrid Erhard (D) +24

New Mexico-3: Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Jeff Byrd (R) +24


Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported

nationwide polls.

Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from

Gallup surveys. 

* Average based on three most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP.

** PRESIDENTIAL: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: (a) Rasmussen, (b)

SurveyUSA; NV: Rasmussen; FL: JZ Analytics/Newsmax; NJ: Neighborhood

Research (R).

*** SENATE: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: SurveyUSA: NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA,


**** U.S. HOUSE: FL: PPP(D); NM-1,2,3: Albuquerque Journal


Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses,

associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.">This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or go to

our website at www.ClarusRG.com. Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

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