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Tuesday, 23 October 2012 06:51
Election horse race: Romney up by 1 over Obama, Ohio, Iowa even
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horse-raceIt's a horserace.

According to Ron Faucheux of Clarus, in an average of polls, Nick Romney is still ahead of President Barack Obama in the popular vote by 1 point meaning no change since Monday.

Faucheux, however, does show a virtual tie in two major battleground states Iowa and Ohio and some differences between poll results from Monday.

Today, Clarus’s findings for the battleground states are below:

Tuesday October 23: President by State

Ohio: Obama and Romney EVEN

Iowa: Obama and Romney EVEN

Pennsylvania: Obama over Romney +3

Colorado: Romney over Obama +4

New Hampshire: Obama over Romney +9

Washington: Obama over Romney +13

Connecticut: Obama over Romney +13

North Dakota (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +20


Compared To:


Monday October 22: PRESIDENT: BY STATE


Florida (average of 5 polls): Romney over Obama +2 Ohio (average of 4 polls): Obama over Romney +2


Iowa: Romney over Obama +1


New Hampshire (D poll): Romney over Obama +1


Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +2


Virginia: Romney over Obama +3


Pennsylvania: Obama over Romney +5


Missouri (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +9 New Jersey (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +15


Maryland: Obama over Romney +24






(no change from yesterday; no change from a week ago)


Romney over Obama +1

Note: The polls used in todays average are scattered, ranging from Romney +6 to Obama +4. Interviewing for polls included were conducted prior to last night's third presidential debate.


CNN poll of registered voters: "Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate --?"

Obama 48%

Romney 40%

CBS poll of uncommitted voters: "Which candidate do you think did the best job - or won - tonight's debate?"

Obama 53%

Romney 23%


Ohio: Obama and Romney EVEN

Iowa: Obama and Romney EVEN

Pennsylvania: Obama over Romney +3

Colorado: Romney over Obama +4

New Hampshire: Obama over Romney +9

Washington: Obama over Romney +13

Connecticut: Obama over Romney +13

North Dakota (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +20


Indiana (D poll): Joe Donnelly (D) over Richard Mourdock (R) +2 Connecticut average: Chris Murphy (D) over Linda McMahon (R) +3

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) +7

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Tom Smith (R) +8

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 53%, Dan Bongino (R) 22%, Rob Sobhani

(I) 14%


Minnesota-6: Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) over Jim Graves (D) +6

Illinois+2: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) 56%, Brian Woodworth (R),

Marcus Lucas (I) 15%


Washington: Jay Inslee (D) and Rob McKenna (R) EVEN


ANALYSIS: Both candidates achieved important objectives. Obama was crisp, specific and had command of the subject matter. His aggressiveness, though, may have rubbed some people the wrong way.

Romney presented himself as a safe alternative who is no war monger.

Romney, however, seemed much less comfortable with foreign policy issues than he did with economic issues. Overall, Obama had the advantage.


Meeting strategic goals A-

Maintaining the offensive C

Effective message delivery A-

Physical presence/demeanor A

Clarity of arguments A-

Exceeding expectations B

Overall B+


Meeting strategic goals A

Maintaining the offensive A

Effective message delivery A

Physical presence/demeanor B+

Clarity of arguments A-

Exceeding expectations A-

Overall A/A-


Who defeated George McGovern in the 1980 Senate election?

(see answer below)


Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported nationwide polls.

* Average based on nine most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wash Post, CBS, Ipsos/Reuters, UPI/CVoter, ARG.


*** PRESIDENTIAL: OH: Suffolk; IA: Rasmussen; PA: Gravis; CO:

Rasmussen; NH: UNH; WA: Strategies 360(D); CT: SurveyUSA; ND:

Rasmussen, Forum/Essman.

**** SENATE: IN: Global Strategies Group (D); CT: Rasmussen, SurveyUSA; OH: Suffolk; PA: Morning Call; MD: Washington Post.

# U.S. HOUSE:MN: Star Tribune; IL: WeAskAmerica.

## GOVERNOR: WA: Strategies360(D).


Republican James Abdnor, a four-term incumbent congressman, defeated George McGovern for re-election in 1980, 58-39 percent.


Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses, associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.">This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or go to our website at www.ClarusRG.com.

Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.


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