Faucheux also provides a historical comparison among Obama and prior Presidents running for re-election, namely, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George Bush (father and son) and Jimmy Carter.
Here is today’s report with only four full days left until Election Day:
republican, Demo U.S. Senate lead Romney in swing states, even popular,
YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE
OBAMA APPROVAL: CLARUS AVERAGE 50%
(no change from yesterday; no change from a week ago)
Reagan at this point: 58%
Clinton at this point: 54%
Bush 43 at this point: 48%
Bush 41 at this point: 43%
Carter at this point: 31%
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONWIDE: CLARUS AVERAGE*
Romney and Obama EVEN
Note: This average is based on five polls, one have Romney ahead (Rasmussen +2), one has Obama ahead (Reuters +1), and three have the race even (Fox, ABC/Wash. Post, UPI/CVoter). We only included polls today that had interviewing periods that extended to Oct. 30/31.
PRESIDENT: BY STATE**
Colorado (average of 2 polls): Obama and Romney EVEN North Carolina: Obama and Romney EVEN Wisconsin (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +1
Virginia: Obama over Romney +2
Florida (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +2 New Hampshire: Obama over Romney +2 Michigan (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +4 Iowa (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +4
Nevada: Obama over Romney +4
Minnesota: Obama over Romney +7
Missouri: Romney over Obama +12
Illinois: Obama over Romney +16
Virginia (average of 2 polls): Tim Kaine (D) over George Allen (R) +1 Wisconsin (average of 2 polls): Tammy Baldwin (D) over Tommy Thompson
Ohio (average of 3 polls): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel
Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) over Todd Akin (R) +4 Florida (average of 3 polls): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack
Michigan (average of 2 polls): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over Pete Hoekstra (R) +17 Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) over Barry Hinckley (R) +22
Rhode Island-1: Rep. David Cicilline (D) over Brendan Doherty (R) +1 Rhode Island-2: Rep. Jim Langevin (D) over Michael Riley (R) +17
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) over Ovide Lamontagne (R) +5 North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) over Walter Dalton (D) +11
Asked of likely voters: "How would you rate (INSERT NAME) overall response to the Hurricane that hit the east coast this week, excellent, good, not so good or poor?"
POSITIVE 78% (rounded)
Not so good 4%
Not so good 8%
Not so good 13%
AROSS THE POND: U.K. VOTERS ON U.S. ELECTION ##
Asked of voters in Great Britain: "If you were given a vote in the U.S. Presidential Election on 6th November, would you most likely vote for Republican candidate Mitt Romney or Democrat candidate Barack Obama?"
Don't know 17%
Wouldn't vote 11%
Presidential job rating average based on the three most recently reported nationwide polls.
Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from Gallup surveys.
* Average based on five most recently released nationwide polls:
Rasmussen, ABC/Wash., Reuters FOX News, UCI/CVoter.
** PRESIDENTIAL: CO: WeAskAmerica, Rasmussen; NC: PPP(D); WI:
Rasmussen, NBC/WSJ/Marist; VA: NYT/WSJ/Marist; FL: WeAskAmerica, Gravis Marketing; FL: NBC/WSJ/Marist; MI: Detroit News, EPIC-MRA; IA:
WeAskAmerica, NBC/WSJ/Marist; NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA; MN: KSTP/SurveyUSA;
MO: WeAskAmerica; IL: WeAskAmerica.
*** SENATE: VA: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, Gravis Marketing; WI: Marquette Univ., NBC/WSJ/Marist; OH: Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cin., Rasmussen, SurveyUSA; MO: WeAskAmerica; FL: Gravis Marketing, PPP(D), SurveyUSA;
MI: Detroit News, EPIC-MRA; RI: WPRI/Flemming.
**** U.S. HOUSE: RI: WPRI/Fleming.
# GOVERNOR: NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist; NC: PPP(D).
## ABC News/Washington Post### ComRes for Bell Pottinger
Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.
Copyright 2012 © Ronald A. Faucheux
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