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Thursday, 01 November 2012 07:48
Polls: Obama, Demo US Senate runs lead in swing states, Romney ties popular vote
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Optimized-obama-romney-splitIn today’s “Your Daily Polling Update” offered by Ron Faucheux of Clarus, President Barack Obama is leading GOP challenger Mitt Romney in the swing states and the Democratic U.S. Senate candidates top their GOP contenders in the battle ground count.   However, in the popular vote, Romney is tied with the President.

 

 

Faucheux also provides a historical comparison among Obama and prior Presidents running for re-election, namely, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George Bush (father and son) and Jimmy Carter. 

Here is today’s report with only four full days left until Election Day:  

republican, Demo U.S. Senate  lead Romney in swing states, even popular,   

YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE

OBAMA APPROVAL: CLARUS AVERAGE 50%

(no change from yesterday; no change from a week ago)

HISTORIC COMPARISONS

Reagan at this point: 58%

Clinton at this point: 54%

Bush 43 at this point: 48%

Bush 41 at this point: 43%

Carter at this point: 31%

PRESIDENTIAL NATIONWIDE: CLARUS AVERAGE*

Romney and Obama EVEN

Note: This average is based on five polls, one have Romney ahead (Rasmussen +2), one has Obama ahead (Reuters +1), and three have the race even (Fox, ABC/Wash. Post, UPI/CVoter). We only included polls today that had interviewing periods that extended to Oct. 30/31.

PRESIDENT: BY STATE**

Colorado (average of 2 polls): Obama and Romney EVEN North Carolina: Obama and Romney EVEN Wisconsin (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +1

Virginia: Obama over Romney +2

Florida (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +2 New Hampshire: Obama over Romney +2 Michigan (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +4 Iowa (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +4

Nevada: Obama over Romney +4

Minnesota: Obama over Romney +7

Missouri: Romney over Obama +12

Illinois: Obama over Romney +16

U.S. SENATE***

Virginia (average of 2 polls): Tim Kaine (D) over George Allen (R) +1 Wisconsin (average of 2 polls): Tammy Baldwin (D) over Tommy Thompson

(R) +2

Ohio (average of 3 polls): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel

(R) +4

Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) over Todd Akin (R) +4 Florida (average of 3 polls): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack

(R) +6

Michigan (average of 2 polls): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over Pete Hoekstra (R) +17 Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) over Barry Hinckley (R) +22

U.S. HOUSE****

Rhode Island-1: Rep. David Cicilline (D) over Brendan Doherty (R) +1 Rhode Island-2: Rep. Jim Langevin (D) over Michael Riley (R) +17

GOVERNOR#

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) over Ovide Lamontagne (R) +5 North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) over Walter Dalton (D) +11

STORM RESPONSE##

Asked of likely voters: "How would you rate (INSERT NAME) overall response to the Hurricane that hit the east coast this week, excellent, good, not so good or poor?"

Obama:

Excellent 35%

Good 42%

POSITIVE 78% (rounded)

Not so good 4%

Poor 4%

NEGATIVE 8%

Federal government:

Excellent 25%

Good 48%

POSITIVE 73%

Not so good 8%

Poor 1%

NEGATIVE 9%

Romney:

Excellent 14%

Good 30%

POSITIVE 44%

Not so good 13%

Poor 8%

NEGATIVE 21%

AROSS THE POND: U.K. VOTERS ON U.S. ELECTION ##

Asked of voters in Great Britain: "If you were given a vote in the U.S. Presidential Election on 6th November, would you most likely vote for Republican candidate Mitt Romney or Democrat candidate Barack Obama?"

Obama 60%

Romney 10%

Other 1%

Don't know 17%

Wouldn't vote 11%

SOURCES:

Presidential job rating average based on the three most recently reported nationwide polls.

Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from Gallup surveys. 

* Average based on five most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, ABC/Wash., Reuters FOX News, UCI/CVoter.

** PRESIDENTIAL: CO: WeAskAmerica, Rasmussen; NC: PPP(D); WI:

Rasmussen, NBC/WSJ/Marist; VA:  NYT/WSJ/Marist; FL: WeAskAmerica, Gravis Marketing; FL: NBC/WSJ/Marist; MI: Detroit News, EPIC-MRA; IA:

WeAskAmerica, NBC/WSJ/Marist; NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA; MN: KSTP/SurveyUSA;

MO: WeAskAmerica; IL: WeAskAmerica.

*** SENATE: VA: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, Gravis Marketing; WI: Marquette Univ., NBC/WSJ/Marist; OH: Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cin., Rasmussen, SurveyUSA; MO: WeAskAmerica; FL: Gravis Marketing, PPP(D), SurveyUSA;

MI: Detroit News, EPIC-MRA; RI: WPRI/Flemming.

**** U.S. HOUSE: RI: WPRI/Fleming.

# GOVERNOR: NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist; NC: PPP(D).

## ABC News/Washington Post

### ComRes for Bell Pottinger

_____

Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses, associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or go to our website at www.ClarusRG.com.

Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2012 © Ronald A. Faucheux

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