Tuesday, 20 November 2012 12:53
Can GOP win another presidential election after Romney's loss to Obama

Romney-GOP-collageCan the GOP win another Presidential election after its candidate Mitt Romney lost against President Obama?

While that was not the question raised by a recent poll and a discussion of that poll by a well-respected pollster, the issue can reasonably be raised by those reviewing the numbers.   

 Based upon a recent poll performed by Resurgent Republic, President Obama won the election for a variety of reason against challenger Romney but perhaps the most important reason was due to the change of the electorate.

This is a demography that is not changing for the benefit of the Republican Party should conditions remain the same.

Pollster Whit Ayres outlined the recent election results findings at the BiPartisan Policy Summit held in New Orleans last week.

Here are some of the bullet points made by Ayres during the first part of his presentation:

(Watch the first part of Whit Ayres's BiPartisan Policy Summit presentation video below at bottom of page)

The white vote, which supported Romney in all classifications (male, female, young) has diminished  significantly over the years.  In 1976, 80 percent of the vote was white;  this election 72 percent white; every month 50,000 thousand Hispanics become eligible to vote and will continue to do so for next twenty years.

Romney was hurt by a slowly improving economy, unfortunate comments from GOP candidates and the recent hurricane had a “modestly positive effect” for Obama at the late stage of the election.   Obama won the late voters which is normally won by the challenger in a race for Presidential re-election.  

Obama had a far superior ground game which helped them to get to the polls early and on Election Day.

Romney’s winning the GOP and the independent vote could not overcome the six-point democratic demographic advantage.  Independents voted for Romney 50 to 45 percent.

Romney won whites by twenty points, Obama won blacks by 87 percent, Hispanics 44 percent, Asians 43 percent and others by 20 percent.

Job approval…best predictor, 51-47 and Obama received 51 percent.  However, the GOP gave Obama an overwhelmingly disapproval vote.

The country is still a center-right country with the GOP and independents feeling the government is doing too much but with democrats favoring fairness.  There was a double digit margin of opportunity over fairness.

Paul Ryan and the GOP won the Medicare argument. 


(Part I of a multi-part series)

(Watch the first part of Whit Ayres's BiPartisan Policy Summit presentation video below at bottom of page)

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