The Republican field is lining up with former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) in the lead. Michele Bachman is in second place with the other candidates far behind. The race in Iowa is even closer between Romney and Bachman. Many activists have been waiting for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to announce, but that has not happened and time is running out on her. Many of her potential supporters will move to Bachman and are not likely to move back to Palin if she jumps in. But, if some do move back to Palin, then Bachman and Palin will both find their campaigns in ruin. Together they split the vote of the Tea Party followers with neither candidate receiving enough votes to win the nomination. So to succeed only one can run and that now appears to be Michele Bachman.
The Republican field of “A List” candidates is taking shape. The list is composed of Mitt Romney and Michele Bachman. Other candidates are on the “B List,” such as Herman Cain, while others are not even in the hunt, former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) and former Senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa). For these candidates the climb to the top will be treacherous and steep and early success in Iowa is a must.
Unlike four years ago when former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR) came from nowhere to win the Iowa caucus, the field this year does not appear to be shaping up in the same way where someone can come from way back in the pack and become a true contender. Climbing past the front runners will be a tough go this time around, and from today’s perspective seems insurmountable.
The last remaining piece to this puzzle is Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry. Gov. Perry has yet to announce and my not do so for some time. He has the attributes to be a top tier contender, but his risk is that if he waits too long voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and S. Carolina, the early caucus and primary states, will have already picked a candidate leaving Perry on the outside looking in. Regardless, though, if Gov. Perry does run he automatically becomes a member of the “A List” and the campaign begins anew.
As the campaign progresses remember that most contested Presidential campaigns are decided by just 10 to 15 states, for example states that George Bush carried in 2000 and 2004 but Senator John McCain (R-AZ) did not carry in 2008. Certain states like New York and California will vote Democrat no matter who the nominees are in 2012. Texas and the south will vote Republican, while Florida, a state Republicans must win, will be a toss-up or swing state. It will be voters in those states in November 2012, especially independent voters, moderate democrats, and some moderate to liberal republicans, who will elect the next president.
It is still early in the campaign. The Iowa caucus does not take place until January of next year and a lot can happen between now and then. If Romney falters and Perry does not gain traction, then that would leave someone else to move up to challenge Bachman. Maybe. And who would that be? At this point only speculation could tell, and that speculation would not be reliable.
Finally, I have heard members of the media elite say that Michele Bachman has a better chance to get the Republican nomination than she does to win the presidency. I suspect that much of this talk is because she is a woman who “cannot get elected.” In 2008 Hillary Clinton did not take Barack Obama seriously, and he became the first African American to be elected president. Today Americans are more frustrated with Washington than ever before. Michele Bachman could just be the breath of fresh air that the American people are looking for. She can beat President Obama, and to discount her candidacy would be a big mistake, a mistake she hopes her Republican challengers and President Obama make.
About Lawrence Chehardy
For thirty-four years Lawrence Chehardy served as Assessor of Jefferson Parish and throughout his career has been a champion the maintenance of the Homestead Exemption. During his years as Assessor Lawrence Chehardy served as President, Vice-president, and Treasure of the Louisiana Assessors’ Association. He also served on numerous boards and committees of the association.
Chehardy has extensive knowledge of politics, political campaigning, and the political process. When it comes to political strategy and creating the campaign’s message, Lawrence is one of the best. Lawrence Chehardy has been instrumental in the election of numerous candidates through endorsements as well as campaign strategy. In many cases his endorsement turned the election in favor of those candidates.
In addition to his political commentary and public speaking engagements, Lawrence Chehardy is a founding member of the Chehardy, Sherman, Ellis, Murray, Recile, Griffith, Stakelum & Hayes Law Firm and serves as its managing partner.
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