Monday, 22 August 2011 14:09
Georges Poll Shows Jindal Vulnerable, Is Marionneaux The One?
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MarrionneauxSenator Rob Marionneaux is hanging around as a possible candidate for Governor. Of late, he's continued to tout a mystery poll he has commissioned to test his strength:


 

Marionneaux , D-Livonia, said he is waiting for the results of a poll he commissioned before he decides. Marionneaux wouldn't say who is conducting the poll, but he said it was designed to "test Jindal's strength and or weaknesses and what is on the minds of voters across the state."Known for his support of a statewide indoor smoking ban and, more recently, repealing the state income tax, Marionneaux sounded like a candidate as he ticked off a list of issues where he thinks the incumbent is vulnerable: a state unemployment rate that has more than doubled since Jindal took office, the lack of cost-of-living adjustments for state pensioners, and Jindal's opposition to bills that sought more transparency in his office.

While Marionneaux considers his options, John Georges makes the results of the latest of his "power-that-be" polls, showing Jindal with healthy leads in the white community. Georges' poll, of 500 white voters only, tests whether Jindal continues to hold the requisite support in that community to be reelected. Of course, Jindal will receive scant support in the heavily Democratic African-American community. Georges' poll shows Jindal on the low cusp of an easy win:

Georges, who ran a distant third to Jindal in 2007, said he and other businessmen commissioned the Florida-based Market Research Insight poll to see how strong Jindal is as the governor faces re-election Oct. 22.

Voters were asked twice whether they would vote to re-elect Jindal. The percentage responding in favor of voting for Jindal dropped after a number of issues — such as the governor raising campaign funds outside Louisiana — were raised during the survey.

“He needs nearly 70 percent of the white vote to win,” Georges said. “He starts at 60 and falls to 50. That is significant.”

So far, no well-financed candidates have announced plans to challenge the Republican Jindal.

Georges' polls are frequent and well-financed. With little other public polling on the Governor's race, they stand alone as the data points of decision makers:

Georges said he and unnamed businessmen have been doing polls for more than 20 years because they want to know what really is going on.

Verne Kennedy, founder and president of Market Research Insight, based in Gulf Breeze, Fla., said the survey represents roughly 75 percent of voters in an election with strong turnout.

“With 62 percent ‘re-elect’ among whites that equals just under 50 percent of all voters even if Jindal got 10 percent of African-American vote. In my experience, well-known incumbents with under a 50 percent ‘re-elect’ score have about a 50 percent chance of re-election if opposed by one or more strong candidates with financial resources to run a major campaign,” Kennedy said Friday.

Whether Marionneaux can effectively communicate the attacks to bring Jindal into a run-off is yet to be seen. Also yet to be seen is if Marionneaux can come up with enough money to make a dent. Marionneaux is expected to release his polling next week. Qualifying is only 2 weeks away, beginning on September 6th. 

by Lamar Parmentel, Chief Curator of Daily Kingfish



 

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