Monday, 03 October 2011 13:13
Louisiana Elections Poll: Dardenne v. Nungesser, Tucker v. Schedler Virtual Ties
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LouisianaIn a recent “ The Hayride/JMCEL’s “Pulse of Louisiana” Poll”, undecided’s lead in the major races for Louisiana Lt. Governor and Secretary of State in the October 22 statewide election with Jay Dardenne, Billy Nungesser, Jim Tucker and Tom Scheduler all coming in for a close second place in their respective races.  All are Republicans. 

 

In the election which is likely to be a very low turnout because Governor Bobby Jindal does not have strong competition running against him, the two races appear to be in a virtual dead-heat with less than three weeks remaining in the contests.

According to JMCEL, “The survey was conducted September 29-October 1. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 3.2%.”

Here are the current results with incumbent Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne over Nungesser 26-24% (49% undecided), Dardenne over Nungesser 30-30% (40% undecided – leaners included) and Tucker over Schedler 20-19% (61% undecided).

Below are written comments made by the pollster which appear on the poll results:

 In a two Republican race, the black vote typically is up for grabs, and this election is no exception. Though

Nungesser has a 2 point lead with this demographic, 66% are undecided;

 While Dardenne has a 23-21% lead with Democrats (28-22% among white Democrats) and a respectable lead among Republicans, Independents prefer Nungesser by 10 points (White Independents prefer Nungesser 34-19%);

 A lower turnout benefits Dardenne more, since he has more name recognition with "high information" voters as a result of his 5 year incumbency;

 When you look at the poll results from a regional perspective, you can see definite candidate preferences. To no one’s surprise, the Baton Rouge area was and is Jay Dardenne's base, and he has a strong lead there. In fact, the percentage of undecideds is lowest in this part of the state;

 While Nungesser has a decent lead in the Bayou/Acadiana region (the Kershaw endorsement and publicity from the oil spill probably benefit Nungesser), over half of the voters are undecided;

 Metro New Orleans is split between the two candidates, because Dardenne’s regional strength there is offset by the roots the Nungesser family has there;

 The area of the state least likely to be aligned with either candidate is North/Central Louisiana. While

Dardenne has a 3 point lead there, nearly 2/3 of the voters are undecided.

Comments:

 If undecideds are asked to state who they are leaning towards, Dardenne’s performance spikes (from 29-21%  to 38-25%) with those in the “other” racial category;

 If you analyze the leaners through a partisan prism, Dardenne maintains his 6 point lead with Republicans, but Nungesser’s 30-20% lead with Independents increases to 38-23% (41-21% with white Independents);

 Similarly, Nungesser’s lead with those moderately likely to vote (the ones we refer to as “likely”) increases from 30-18% to 37-22%;

 From a geographic standpoint, undecided voters split nearly evenly between the candidates when asked who they are leaning towards, with one exception: Nungesser’s 30-27% lead in Metro New Orleans expands to 36-29%.

Secretary of State Election

Schedler has a slight lead with republican, white, and likely voters.  Tucker has a slight lead with black, democrats and chronic voters.

Schedler leads Tucker in the New Orleans area while Tucker has a lead in the bayou/acadiana and central Louisiana regions.

Tucker and Schedler are tied  in the Baton Rouge region.

However, 61 % are undecided. 

Comments:

 This is a race where virtually every group is over 50% undecided, so there is still a lot of potential for movement before Election Day. It is worth noticing that Metro New Orleans is the only region of the state where Schedler currently has a lead;

 The Baton Rouge area is the one part of the state where a Dardenne endorsement of Schedler (who once worked for Dardenne at the Secretary of State’s office) could help, since voters are evenly split between the candidates in that area.

Read poll results

stephen Sabludowskyby Stephen Sabludowsky, Publisher of Bayoubuzz.com

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