Below are copies of these dueling polls-emails:
Bayoubuzz will have a full view and analysis later:
The signs are all there: the Louisiana Senate race has entered a new, much more highly competitive phase. Only a week ago, the nonpartisan Cook Report, one of the most respected election handicappers in the country, upgraded Charlie and moved our race into a more competitive category.
This week, our campaign released a new internal poll showing a statistical dead heat between Charlie and David Vitter. The poll, conducted with 800 likely general election voters by Anzalone-Liszt Research from July 13 - 18, 2010, shows Charlie at 43% and Vitter at 44%.
David Vitter's already tenuous re-election prospects have taken a serious hit since ABC News reported that one of Vitter's top aides, Brent Furer, pled guilty to assaulting a woman with a knife, but was kept on Vitter's staff and assigned to women's issues for two years after the assault -- even though Vitter knew the details surrounding the crime.
The poll also shows that, for the first time, half the electorate prefers "someone new" to another Vitter term (41% re-elect Vitter / 50% someone new).
Louisianians are moving to Charlie because his message of bringing a more bipartisan, more common sense approach to the Senate that puts Louisiana first is resonating with voters. They want someone in the Senate who tackles the big problems that we're facing -- not someone who disrespects women and is consumed by politics.
The race is on.
Memo: Anzalone-Liszt Poll: July 13 - 18, 2010
The race for Louisiana's US Senate seat has undergone a fundamental shift in the past few weeks -- and, of all 2010 Senate races, Charlie Melancon is clearly the Democratic challenger best positioned to beat a Republican incumbent.
Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) has moved into a dead heat with Sen. David Vitter (R), according to a new poll conducted for his campaign… The Melancon poll shows Vitter's job disapproval creeping up from 36 to 44 percent since May 2009, while his job approval has remained steady in the low-to-mid 50s. Melancon nearly matches Vitter's approval (50 percent) while carrying a lower disapproval score of 30 percent.
Vitter's mishandling of the [a recent scandal] and the emergence of a strong Republican primary challenger are new, dramatic hurdles to Vitter's already imperiled re-election prospects. Charlie Melancon's active role during the oil spill has provided him with a platform to demonstrate his strong leadership on behalf of Louisiana voters on a statewide platform.
Gambit: Clancy Dubois: November 2nd Wild Cards
The elections for U.S. Senate and a local congressional seat promise to be wide-open, no-holds-barred affairs
In fact, the re-election bids of two closely watched Louisiana Republicans -- U.S. Sen. David Vitter and Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao -- could go down to the wire Nov. 2. Or sooner, in Vitter's case. More than history suggests that Vitter and Cao could be in for cliffhangers. Each incumbent also faces a unique set of circumstances complicating his prospects. Vitter is racked by scandals…
This week I was proud to join thousands of Louisianians at a rally in Lafayette to send a Message to President Obama that his offshore drilling moratorium must end. For the sake of the thousands of Louisiana families who rely on jobs from this industry, for our national energy security, President Obama must lift this moratorium. And I reiterated this point on Fox News Sunday and in an op-ed that ran this week.
We also took a strong stand against illegal immigration this week. Senator Jim DeMint and I introduced legislation to prevent the federal government from pursuing its lawsuit against the state of Arizona. The majority of Americans agree that the federal government should be focused on improving border security and enforcement, not blocking Arizona’s law, which simply tries to address the federal government’s failings in meeting those needs. You can see an interview I did on this very issue here.
A new poll this week showed our hard work on these issues is resonating with voters and we hold a 20 point lead over Charlie Melancon.
Even with a deficit like that, Charlie Melancon still doesn’t understand that Louisianians don’t want the kind of liberal Obama agenda that he supports. In fact, he’s turning to extreme liberal bases for support and traveling to Canada to meet with trial lawyers looking to profit off of the oil spill and looking to Hillary Clinton’s friends to recruit supporters.
From National Republican Senatorial Committee:
Here are the vitals: Sen. Vitter has a 48-31 lead over Rep. Melancon. Among those most likely to vote (77% of respondents), Sen. Vitter’s lead widens to 53-33...Our numbers are in line with all the public polling on this race, while theirs are way off:
- Rasmussen – 06/24/2010 – Vitter 53%, Melancon 35%
- Public Policy Polling – 06/13/2010 – Vitter 46%, Melancon 37%
- Southern Media & Opinion Research – 04/23/2010 – Vitter 49%, Melancon 31%
- Rasmussen – 04/07/2010 – Vitter 52%, Melancon 36%
- Rasmussen – 03/10/2010 – Vitter 57%, Melancon 34%
- Rasmussen – 02/10/2010 – Vitter 57%, Melancon 33%
- Rasmussen – 01/14/2010 – Vitter 53%, Melancon 35%