All show Governor Bobby Jindal dropping dramatically in favorability in Louisiana while national media pundits and national republicans maintain him as a very desirable commodity, "hot" enough to be a first-tier Presidential candidate and a preferred speaker on the GOP tours.
However, the most recent poll, the PPP poll, show him at a precarious 33% positive vs. 58% negative scores placing him in the ridicule ledger.
Assuming the accuracy of the latter poll, Governor Jindal has plenty fence mending to do as he enters his second "lame-duck" year with a budget, education and medicaid crises pending, come legislative session.
This column has forever urged Governor Jindal to focus upon the state and not on the national ambitions which he so fervently denies. Matters such as an ever-growing 5,000 foot sinkhole in Bayou Corne (which the Governor must pretend does not exist since he has never made an site appearance despite clamors from displaced residents and others) has got to be taking a toll on his poll numbers and his credibility. While he has been anartful complainer when it comes time for matters such as blaming the federal government and BP or castigating Obama for "lackadasical performances" or reading from notes during national media press conferences, the deeper and wider the sinkhole becomes, the longer he stays away, the more the public begins to wonder--my God, why has he absent for so long? Today, he is sharing Valentines Day spotlight with the longest-married couple in Louisiana. Last week, he was sharing podium with the Governor of Virginia, earning chits.
All of these appearances are wonderful photo-ops, but it matters very little to the everyday Louisiana voters who are wondering how the state will make up a three million dollar deficit based upon sketchy budgetary plans designed for the upcoming legisaltive session. Those images are meaningless to those wondering if their families will receive necessary healthcare or education or jobs opportunities.
In a recent written statement post-Obama State of the Union speech, which surely was circulated to the local and national media, Jindal wrote, "With four more years in office, he needs to step up to the plate and do the job he was elected to do.”
Based upon the polls, Governor Jindal might want to take his own advice.
I know there are some who feel the polls are skewed, not accurate or biased. I know that Governor Jindal will say he does not govern based upon polls. I know that the national media and mainstream republicans will continue to hoist the image of Bobby Jindal high on the popularity pole while citizens down here see the governor poll figures crash.
I also know there is a legislative session around the corner. One astute watcher told me yesterday that it will be one of the hottest since I started to publish Bayoubuzz. If so, that might not be the best of worlds for our governor.
To his credit, Governor Jindal wants to reform the way we collect revenues. To his detriment, Bobby Jindal's numbers, whether real or perceived, are miserable to not very good.
It is true that Governor Jindal has all the skills and talents that he possessed when he wooed the public in 2003 in a losing effort where he soared over the likes of well-known candidates only to lose against the former Lt. Governor, Kathleen Blanco in the gubernatorial election. He has only amassed greater power and experience since beating three relatively unknown candidates in the 2007 governor's race.
However, now he is the fight of his short political life. Based upon the PPP poll, according to one national publication, in his own state, he is one of the most unpopular governors in the nation after being one of the most beloved. Therein lies the problem. Every time he sets foot on the national stage, whether as Chairman of the Republican Governors Association or as a media talking head or as a fundraiser-in-chief for some fellow national republican figure, he runs the risk of seeing his numbers drop even more. The issue is now not whether he is spending sufficient time at home. The question, now is whether he is putting his personal national agenda ahead of the needs of the voters who have elected him Governor's mansion.
The Louisiana GOP party also is in a quandary. Thus far, they have been the biggest megaphone for him since he made the 2003 runoffs. Yet, the conservative legislators are in a revolt. Many of the party faithful are simply angry. The local good-government folks down here in south Louisiana are becoming scared. for one, they wonder how the state's hospitality industry will continue to thrive if his plan to raise the sales tax becomes a reality.
With poll numbers, whether in the low fifties to the high-thirties behind the governor and with the local political landscape become darker, Jindal's political teflon has thinned. Friendly legislators will not continue to be his back if constituents back home are in their front.
It is time, in fact, way past time for Governor Jindal to come home and face the music instead of playing Nero's national fiddle. Louisiana continues to fall and burn as is his own popularity.
Here is the recently published PPP poll narative and results:
The decline in Jindal's popularity cuts across party lines. Where he was at 81/13 with Republicans in August 2010, now it's 59/35. Where he was at 67/22 with independents back then, now he's at 41/54. And what was a higher than normal amount of crossover support from Democrats at 33/58 is now 15/78. There was a time when Jindal probably would have been seen as a slam dunk candidate for Republicans against Mary Landrieu in 2014. But now he actually trails Landrieu 49/41 in a hypothetical match up.
When PPP last polled Louisiana in 2010, Bobby Jindal was one of the most popular Governors in the country. 58% of voters approved of the job he was doing to just 34% who disapproved. Over the last two and a half years though there's been a massive downward shift in Jindal's popularity, and he is now one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Just 37% of voters now think he's doing a good job to 57% who are unhappy with him.
The decline in Jindal's popularity cuts across party lines. Where he was at 81/13 with Republicans in August 2010, now it's 59/35. Where he was at 67/22 with independents back then, now he's at 41/54. And what was a higher than normal amount of crossover support from Democrats at 33/58 is now 15/78. There was a time when Jindal probably would have been seen as a slam dunk candidate for Republicans against Mary Landrieu in 2014. But now he actually trails Landrieu 49/41 in a hypothetical match up.
Trailing Landrieu hardly puts Jindal alone among Louisiana Republicans. She leads all seven we tested against her, by margins ranging from 3 to 12 points. Landrieu has a narrowly positive approval rating with 47% of voters giving her good marks to 45% who disapprove. That's up from 41/53 in August of 2010...her numbers are seeing some recovery from their post Obamacare decline.
The Republican who comes closest to Landrieu is Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne, who trails just 46/43. Dardenne has a 41/23 favorability rating statewide and is seen positively by both Democrats (43/22) and Republicans (42/25). We also tested a number of current or former Republicans members of Congress against Landrieu. Charlie Boustany comes the closest with a 6 point deficit at 48/42. He's followed by Jeff Landry who trails 48/39, Steve Scalise who trails 48/38 and Bill Cassidy who trails 50/40, and John Fleming who trails 50/38.
“Most of the Republicans have low name recognition so it will get closer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Mary Landrieu’s near 50% and in a much stronger position for reelection probably than most people would have expected.”
PPP surveyed 603 Louisiana voters from February 8th to 12th. The margin of error is +/- 4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_213.pdf
