Who is winning the Louisiana US Senate momentum game?
The GOP, especially the National Republican Senatorial Committee, says that their number one republican Congressman Bill Cassidy has the edge.
Obviously, the Democratic Party and its various offshoots are pushing Democratic U.S. Senator Landrieu as having the big “Mo”.
The only other candidate in the race, Tea Party favorite, Rob Maness, says the wind is behind his back.
Without doubt, throughout the U.S., the Republicans have taken it on the chin with the shutdown and debt ceiling drama. Throughout this country, no matter how well-intentioned they might be, and no matter how right they think they are, based upon numerous polls, as of now, the Tea Party is seriously hurting the GOP brand. What should occur in a month, six months or next year during the cauldron of election season, obviously, we do not know. But, the one thing you can bet on--time creates change. What is today, is not tomorrow.
Except perhaps in Louisiana.
The once-dark blue state now has been safely engulfed in Republican Red.
The Tea Party has not tarnished the Louisiana GOP brand. If anything, arguably, the GOP might be scarring the Tea Party’s face, instead.
All GOP Congressmen and Senator David Vitter were in favor of the Tea Party-led shutdown and against raising the debt ceiling, except for Congressman Charles Boustany. Cassidy was part of the majority Louisiana Congressional vote.
There are polls that claim that Landrieu has moved ahead and the Democrats are pushing the recent adjustments by respected politico--Larry J. Sabato’s who now reports the race has gone from a “Toss Up” to “Likely Democratic.”
However, the political winds are churning all around.
According to John Maginnis, Republican State Rep. Paul Hollis is making noise about jumping into the race. Over the past few weeks, a north Louisiana state rep, Alan Seabaugh of Shreveport, has been also giving the race a look.
Perhaps it is time for State Chairman to pull in the reigns to assure solidarity, but, doing so, would not likely stop Maness. Plus, Villere, who is a uber-high ranking national party official which party appears to be supporting Cassidy, also ran for Lt. Governor against other republicans recently. Thus, it just might be hard to crack the whip—assuming he has that stroke, anyway.
Then, whatever gains might be had by Landrieu over the past few weeks during the GOP meltdown could be obliterated should Team Obama not be able to fix the sick Healthcare.gov website. David Vitter had no problem running against Charlie Melancon’s running mate, the President, in the last U.S. Senate skirmish, in part due to the stimulus and of course, there was Obamacare scare. Then, Obamacare was still a mirage of sorts. Now, it is a reality.
So, if Senator Landrieu, who has been a pivotal player in the healthcare reform game, stays with the Obama Team with a failing site, she will take the hit. There are reports that she is beginning the feel the political heat and wants some adjustments. Should she stridently change her longtime tune and want delay in the healthcare roll-out, she will appear to look both political and perhaps wrong on the underlying issue of the Democratic party-style healthcare reform.
Should the website begin to get the fix rather than the nix (which appears to be the “if it doesn’t fit you must acquit” slogan going around the Democratic parlors of Washington D.C.,) then she might have less mud thrown her way by Obamacare opponents. However, while there have been some improvements to the site, there are still some real questions as to whether the site has been poorly designed or badly implemented—which could undermine whatever hope Obamacare patrons still hold.
On the other front, it surely does not help Cassidy if other Republicans decide to test the water. Although from most accounts, he has not caught on yet, despite the somewhat respectable campaign funds he has been able to attract. The problem for him on that front is that Landrieu is doing much better in generating cush. How the Obamacare rollout impacts the money flow might depend upon the digital ones and zeros.
While the party surrogates (see below) will spin the political bottle as much and as often as possible, the truth is, the confluence of Obamacare, fundraising, more GOP candidates entering the slugfest, promises a rather confusing but exciting campaign down to the wire.
After all, Mary Landrieu is the candidate. And, this is Louisiana.
The Spin is In:
In the latest turn of events surrounding the massive “glitch” that is Obamacare, Mary Landrieu is now calling for the crux of the failed policy to be delayed.
“Given the existing problems with the website, I urge you to consider extending open enrollment beyond the current end date of March 31, 2014,” Landrieu said.
A Politico article published this week pointed out that, “The Obama administration’s day ended much as it began, with Democrats frustrated over Obamacare’s rollout.”
“You know it’s bad when liberal Democrats like Mary Landrieu are calling to delay Obamacare,” said LAGOP Executive Director Jason Doré. “Sadly what they don’t realize is that a mere delay cannot fix this failure. Obamacare needs to be completely repealed and replaced. Instead of fighting for a real fix, Mary Landrieu is playing politics with Louisiana residents’ healthcare.”
Healthcare.gov, which cost more to develop than Facebook or the first generation iPhone, has been the largest failure of the Obama presidency. It also happens to be the policy that Mary Landrieu has bet her political future on.
Last week, on the Senate floor while speaking about Obamacare, Landrieu said, “If they do not like it, they can unelect us. Believe me, they will have a great chance because I am up for reelection right now.”
Recent polling shows an overwhelming amount of Louisiana residents oppose Obamacare.
(from the Louisiana Republican Party)
LA Politics - Another Republican Legislator Thinking About Senate Run
By John Maginnis
Although Congressman Bill Cassidy hung tough with GOP conservatives during the government shutdown, the carping from the right over his Senate candidacy continues, as another legislator says he is considering running.
Rep. Paul Hollis of Covington recently issued a statement citing the concern by him and fellow legislators for the “stability and direction of our country right now,” and concluding, “It is with that in mind that several of us have contemplated the idea of running for the Senate in 2014.” He did not return a call for comment.
Rep. Alan Seabaugh of Shreveport has said he would decide on running by early next year.
Talking about running is cheap, of course, and thinking about it is cheaper. Cassidy supporters point to the candidate’s $3.4 million in the bank and his extensive organization building to say that he is the one serious challenger to Sen. Mary Landrieu. The only other declared Republican candidate is Rob Maness, who has reported raising $100,000 in six months.
Meanwhile, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a website affiliated with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has adjusted the Senate race from a “Toss Up” to “Likely Democratic.” The two biggest factors in the upgrade are Cassidy’s fundraising and Landrieu’s knack for pulling off tight elections, according to the site.
(From the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee)
Bill Cassidy In Trouble: #LASEN Moves Toward Landrieu Amid Cassidy's Government Shutdown & Anemic Fundraising
Cassidy Pegged A "Loser" For Horrendous Q3 Fundraising As Conservatives Look For An Alternative & Yet Another GOPer Mulls Entering Race To Challenge Cassidy
Polling Shows Cassidy-Led Shutdown Absolutely Devastating For His 2014 Chances
New Orleans, Louisiana – In case it wasn't clear that Bill Cassidy's listless campaign for Senate is in serious trouble, analyst LarrySabato has now moved the Louisiana Senate race from "Toss-up" to "Leaning Democratic."
Explaining the landscape shift in the marquee Senate race, Sabato writes:
"Not only has the national Republican brand suffered, but Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), [Mary Landrieu's] likely opponent, has not impressed with his fundraising. While Landrieu raised close to $1.4 million in the last quarter, Cassidy only could manage to pull in $700,000. She now has significantly more cash-on-hand than Cassidy ($5.8 million to $3.4 million). Cassidy also voted against the debt ceiling compromise…"
Sabato's analysis echoes what Louisianians across the political spectrum are starting to see – Bill Cassidy is a weak and seriously flawed candidate whose campaign is on the ropes.
Bill Cassidy banked less than $200k this past fundraising quarter, a horrendous haul that resulted in him being named a fundraiser "loser" by the Washington Post and National Journal. Cassidy's anemic fundraising led Louisiana's leading conservative blog to state that Cassidy's campaign "has lost steam" and is "stuck in neutral," and "Cassidy may not be the party's best shot at defeating Landrieu." In contrast to Cassidy's "fundraising woes," Mary Landrieu's $5.8 million cash on hand is more than any Democratic Senator or candidate in a competitive race has banked ahead of 2014.
Cassidy is already facing a challenge on the Republican side from Rob Maness, he may soon face another from Shreveport State Rep. Alan Seabaugh and Covington State Rep. Paul Hollis is now considering entering the race to challenge Cassidy. Maness has coined the term "Cassidycare" to describe legislation Cassidy tried to pass in 2007 that was nearly identical to Obamacare (which Cassidy shut down the government in order to delay – talk about a textbook definition of hypocrisy). Meanwhile Seabaugh has said without equivocation that Cassidy can't beat Mary Landrieu.
As Cassidy tries – and fails – to shore up his support among Republicans who rightfully don't trust him given his record of hypocrisyon health care reform and inexplicable campaign donations to Mary Landrieu and other Democrats, his shameful government shutdown and vote to send the U.S. economy into default might very well sink his dwindling chances if he is still the leading Republican candidate next year.
A poll last week showed Louisianians overwhelmingly opposed Bill Cassidy's government shutdown by a monstrous 60 to 30 percent margin. Mary Landrieu led Bill Cassidy by 7 percentage points, and when voters were informed about Cassidy's decision to shut down the government, he trailed by double digits. Worse for Cassidy, Louisianians were polled before his latest vote to continue the government shutdown and send the U.S. economy into default, indicating Cassidy's support has eroded even further since then.
The bottom line is this: Bill Cassidy is in serious trouble, and has no one to blame for his consistent campaign missteps except himself.
"Louisianians across the political spectrum are starting to see that Bill Cassidy is a weak and seriously flawed candidate whose campaign is on the ropes, and whose record of shutting down the government and voting for default in order to delay the same health care reforms he tried to pass in 2007 proves that he simply can't be trusted to fight for Louisiana families," said Campaign for Louisiana Communications Director Andrew Zucker.
Five Times, Cassidy Voted For Extreme House Republican Plans That Would Shut Down Government. [Vote #478, 9/20/13; CNN, 9/20/13; CNN, 9/29/13; Vote #498, 9/29/13; Vote 502, 9/30/13; Vote 504, 9/30/13; Vote 505, 10/1/13]
Cassidy Signed A Letter Asking GOP House Leadership Not To Support Any Spending Bill Unless The Affordable Care Act Is Defunded. “U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy joined more than one-third of U.S. House Republicans in urging the leadership to threaten to force a government shutdown unless Obamacare is defunded… The letter that Cassidy signed onto includes 80 of the House’s 233 Republicans and asks the GOP House leadership not to support any spending bill — including a needed continuing resolution to avoid a partial government shutdown after Sept. 30 — unless the Affordable Care Act health care law is defunded.” [The Advocate,8/25/13]
Cassidy and House Republicans Voted Sixteen Times Against Efforts to Re-Open the Government. Daines and House Republicans voted sixteen times against efforts to vote on a clean government funding resolution by allowing consideration of the Senate-passed continuing resolution. [H Res 370, Vote #509, 10/02/13; HJ Res 70, Vote #512, 10/02/13; HR 3230, Vote #515, 10/03/13; HJ Res 72, Vote #517, 10/03/13; H Res 371, Vote #519, 10/04/13; HJ Res 85, Vote #521, 10/04/13; HJ Res 75, Vote #523, 10/04/13; H J Res 77, Vote #527, 10/7/13; HJ Res 84, Vote #529, 10/08/13; H Res 373, Vote #531, 10/08/13; HR 3273, Vote #533, 10/08/13; HJ Res 90, Vote #536, 10/09/13; HJ Res 79, Vote #539, 10/10/13; HJ Res 76, Vote #541, 10/11/13; HJ Res 80, Vote #547, 10/14/13; HJ Res 80, Vote #549, 10/14/13]
Paid for by the Democratic State Central Committee of LA, www.lademo.org, and not authorized by any federal candidate or candidate’s committee.
Good morning folks,
Just three weeks ago, Politico reported:
Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Begich of Alaska have consistently voted with their party to reject repeated GOP attempts to chip away at the health care law — reflecting a remarkable level of Democratic unity on the issue. Not a single Democrat crossed party lines Monday
in a Senate vote to reject House-passed provisions that would have, among other things, delayed Obamacare for one year.
Now, just weeks after ObamaCare's long awaited launch, Democrats like Mary Landrieu are running like hell and are on the verge of making the biggest and most politically motivated flip-flop in recent history. Why? Because their political strategists are begging them to, as CNN’s Dana Bash reported. She's also watched neighboring Mark Pryor's numbers tank.
Now that Mary Landrieu’s own political career is on the line, she is rushing to cover herself. So far Landrieu has supported extending enrollment, but she has been much more vague about what she thinks should be done about the tax penalty. Many in the Gang of 500 expect that the Administration will have little choice but to delay the individual mandate. In fact, Democrats ranging from moderate Joe Manchin to liberal Richard Blumenthal are already suggesting a formal delay of the individual mandate. With that in mind, consider that such a position would be perhaps the biggest mass flip/flop in political history. It would put vulnerable Democrats, like Mary Landrieu to the LEFT of the President on ObamaCare – which, considering its unpopularity, is quite something.
• September 30th, Mary Landrieu Said She Was “Absolutely Not” Open To Delaying The Individual Mandate. “When asked whether she is open to delaying the individual mandate or other measures to a continuing resolution, Landrieu responded: ‘absolutely not.’ ‘I'm not for delaying the mandate, I would vote again for the Affordable Care Act,’ Landrieu said. ‘I am for the Affordable Care Act. Period. End.’” (Seung Min Kim, “Red-State Senate Dems Stick It Out,” Politico, 9/30/13)
Perhaps you might want to try to get some clarity from Mary Landrieu before she changes her mind. In the meantime, we expect a lot of finger pointing. Vulnerable Democrats like Mary Landrieu come up with a thousand excuses, ranging from blaming Republicans to blaming some poor IT person to blaming Secretary Sebelius. The truth, however, is that each of these Democrats – including Mary Landrieu - has no one to blame but themselves for the ongoing ObamaCare disaster.
National Republican Senatorial Committee