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New SMOR Poll: Jindal up 4, Landrieu down 2, Vitter leads Governor race
Written by  // Thursday, 21 November 2013 15:07 //

Jindal-differenceBernie Pinsonat, of Southern Media and Opinion Research has just announced a November statewide poll which presents some interesting but challenging results.

 

Governor Jindal's favorables have risen to 42% from the recent SMOR poll of 38%.   Most of the increase has come from the Florida Parishes.

U.S. Senator, Mary Landrieu, who is runing for re-election has dropped ten points since the spring poll from 56% to 46%.  However, she still leads the pack for U.S. Senate.

in the Louisiana Governor's Race, Republicans lead overwhelmingly with Senator David Vitter on top of the pack with 30% followed by John Kennedy (19%), Jay Dardenne 18%.  Jon Bel Edwards, the only Democrat is at a lowly 8%.

Here is the press release from SMOR

 

SMOR Louisiana Press Release

November 2013

based on a survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters conducted November 6-12, 2013
© Southern Media & Opinion Research, Inc.

Contact. Bernie Pinsonat, 225-405-6797, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Governor Bobby Jindal

Jindal's job performance ratings

Governor Jindal's job performance ratings continue to languish (42% positive to 55% negative) although there was a four point increase in his favorable ratings from the spring 2013 poll (38% positive to 60% negative). Jindal's slight rise in positive ratings is mainly due to him having an increase in positive ratings among the Florida/River parishes' area voters which includes Baton Rouge's capital region and among white, male Democrats and Independents. Governor Jindal remains popular among two-thirds of all Republicans.

Jindal's rise in job performance among Florida/River parishes' voters may be due to the "train wreck that didn't happen" on the highly publicized conversion of state-run charity hospitals. Rather than being the disaster some Baton Rouge area Democratic legislators predicted, the conversion ultimately led to some of those critics actually praising the outcome which in their views led to better health care for their constituents.

Jindal's popularity outlook

Last spring Governor Jindal's job performance ratings plunged to an all-time low of 38% because of severe budget cuts to the Charity Hospital System and similar cuts to health care services and higher education. Current state revenue projections point to a budget surplus rather than additional budget cuts in 2014. If Governor Jindal has enough dollars to begin reinvesting in health care and higher education, his job performance ratings could return to the fifties.

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu

Landrieu's lob performance

Senator Landrieu's job performance rating has deteriorated since this spring. Compared to the spring 2013 poll (56% positive to 41% negative), voters' opinion toward her have polarized with her positive ratings dropping ten points and her negative ratings rising ten points (46% positive to 51% negative).

Her "excellent" ratings went up four percentage points (from 12% to 16%) which mainly came from black Democrats and female Independents. Her "good" ratings dropped by 14 points (from 44% to 30%). Her negative job ratings went up ten points with most of that being an increase in "poor" ratings (up seven points).


Democrats. These percentages point out why Louisiana has no Democratic state office holders. Senator Landrieu faces a tidal wave of unfavorable demographic voting trends.

2015 Governor's Race

One thing is certain, Republicans dominate the field for Governor to replace term-limited Bobby Jindal. In the five candidate trial heat, John Bel Edwards, the sole Democrat, only draws 8% of the vote. U.S. Senator David Vitter leads the field with 30% of the vote with fellow Republicans State Treasurer John Kennedy (19%) and Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne (18%) running neck-n-neck for second. Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, the least known potential candidate, garners 2%. Twenty-three percent were undecided or wouldn't say.

Should U.S. Senator David Vitter pursue the post, his popularity with Republican voters gives him the advantage over his Republican rivals. Senator Vitter is very popular (about 80% favorable) with Republicans, both men and women. Half of all Republican votes go to Senator Vitter; this is a big advantage in a crowded field.

Levee Board Lawsuit

In spite of Governor Jindal's opposition, a majority of Louisiana voters say the levee board should continue with the many-billions-of-dollars, wetland damages lawsuit against 97 oil companies. Half (50%) are of the opinion the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority Levee Board should continue with that lawsuit; 36% say the levee board should drop the lawsuit; and the remaining 14% either don't know or won't say.

Demographically, white voters are about evenly split on whether to continue (42%) or drop (44%) the lawsuit. Fifty-nine percent of white, male Democrats say the levee board should continue with the lawsuit while a comparable proportion of male Republicans (60%) say the board should drop the lawsuit. Black voters are overwhelmingly of the opinion that the levee board should continue (70%) with the lawsuit rather than dropping it (18%).


Landrieu lost ground among male and female, white Democrats. Her positive job ratings dropped 17 points among white, male Democrats and 19 points among white, female Democrats. With the exception of one of those points which went to "don't know", all went to the negatives.

Although we can't be certain of what caused the shift, the controversial federal government's health care website fiasco which further drew attention to the Affordable Care Act likely contributed to Landrieu's lower positive job performance ratings. Contributing to Landrieu's declining popularity was the revelation that millions of health care insurance policies were canceled in spite of President Obama's personal guarantee that everyone could keep their individual insurance policies.

Landrieu's reelection

Senator Mary Landrieu is definitely facing an uphill battle for reelection. She draws 41% of the vote in a three-way trial heat with Republican challengers Congressman Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness who collectively draw 44% (34% Cassidy and 10% Maness) of the vote; the remaining 15% are undecided or wouldn't say.

Reelection issue

The Affordable Care Act is now very unpopular in Louisiana and Senator Landrieu's steadfast support for it is her biggest hurdle to get reelected. Only 34% of the voters responded they were "for" the Affordable Care Act which is also referred to as Obamacare while 59% responded they were "against" it. Of those voters who initially said they would vote for Senator Landrieu, 6% percent later said they would be less likely to vote for her because she voted for the Affordable Care Act and another 20% said they didn't know if they would vote for her or not. Perhaps even worse for the incumbent Senator is that 70% of those who were undecided or who wouldn't say for whom they would vote in the three-way trial heat indicated they would be less likely to vote for her due to her support of Obamacare.

Seniority

If Senator Landrieu faced reelection in the next few months, her outlook for reelection would be highly unlikely. When voters were asked which was more important, keeping her in office

due to her seniority or electing someone new, 56% wanted someone new and 37% percent wanted to keep her in office. Her accumulated seniority is unimportant to most voters and reminding voters she is a three-term incumbent senator will not improve her outlook for reelection.

Voter demographics

If controversial issues weren't enough, Senator Landrieu also faces the problem of the changing voter registration landscape in Louisiana. When first elected in 1996, 40% of Louisiana's voters were white Democrats. Today, white Democrats account for only 22% of Louisiana's electorate.

Not only are the voter registration proportions trending against Democratic candidates, but there is also the misalignment of party loyalty. About half (48%) of Louisiana voters tend to agree with Republicans no matter how they are registered to vote. Only 36% tend to agree with


SMOR Louisiana Poll
November 2013

ABOUT THE POLL

This statewide poll was solely developed and conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research, Inc., and funded by private subscribers.

Interviews for this statewide poll were completed by telephone with 600 Louisiana voters from Wednesday, November 6, through Tuesday, November 12, 2013.

The overall margin of error for the statewide statistics obtained from the survey data is not greater than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. In other words, there is a 95% certainty that the statistics presented from the results obtained on this survey of 600 voters statewide will not be more than 4.0 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained if all of the voters in the state would have been interviewed.

The sample error may be larger for subgroup responses based on attitudinal, demographic and geographic variables such as area, age, etc. There are other sources of potential error which cannot be calculated including question wording and order of question presentation.

An interval sample design was used to select telephone numbers from a sample frame of telephone numbers for Louisiana voter households. Both landline and cellular telephone numbers were included in the sample frame.

Respondents were assigned to one of four geographic areas based on their parish of residence. The four geographic areas along with the parishes comprising those areas are:

New Orleans metropolitan area, (includes Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany and Washington parishes); Florida-River Parishes, (includes Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, Tangipahoa, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana parishes); Acadiana-southwest, (includes Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard,

Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lafourche, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes); North Louisiana, (includes Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne, Concordia, DeSoto, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle, Lincoln, Madison, Morehouse, Natchitoches, Ouachita, Rapides, Red River, Richland, Sabine, Tensas, Union, Vernon, Webster, West Carroll and Winn parishes).

A statistical weighting procedure was employed to normalize the sample to the voter population based on voter sex, race and political party affiliation.

The percentages shown in the tables are weighted. Counts within tables are unweighted counts. The count of cases used in computation of subset statistics (using the format n=xxx) presented under the relevant crosstabulation tables are unweighted counts of cases used to generate the statistics in those tables.


SMOR LOUISIANA POLL, NOVEMBER 2013

Frequency Responses-based on a survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters,
conducted November 6 - 12, 2013
© Southern Media & Opinion Research, Inc.

Elected Officials Job Performance

$1·            Please tell me if you think the following elected officials are doing an excellent, good, not so good or poor job?

 

EXCELLENT

GOOD

NOT
SO GOOD

POOR

(NOT FAMIL
/DNK/WS)

$1·         President Barack Obama...................

14.7.......

23.6

15.9......

43.9

2.0

$1·         Governor Bobby Jindal....................

11.8.......

29.9

 ... 23.4.....

31.6

3.3

$1·         U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu..............

16.1.......

30.2

18.1......

32.4

3.1

$1·         U.S. Senator David Vitter.................

12.4.......

45.9

14.6......

20.6

6.6

$1·         Congressman Bill Cassidy......

4.6.........

32.5

10.9......

7.8

44.3

$1·         Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne.

6.9.........

53.9

11.9......

6.3

21.0

$1·         State Treasurer John Kennedy..........

11.8.......

50.2

9.1......

6.6

22.3

U.S. Senate Election and Related Issues

An election for U.S. Senate will be held next year. As
said they will run for the Senate, please tell me if yo
favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable

VERY
FAVOR

I mention several people who have ur impression of that person is very or very unfavorable:

SOME          SOME       VERY (NOT FAMIL

FAVOR                  UNFAVOR UNFAVOR /DNK/WS)

$1·       Bill Cassidy, a Republican from Baton Rouge who is a medical doctor

   
 

and U.S. Congressman............................................................ 16.0

 .. 34.4.......... 13.4.......... 12.9......

23.3

 

$1·      Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from New

   
 

Orleans who is the incumbent U.S.

   
 

Senator.......................................................... 32.1....

17.0.......... 14.3.................. 34.5......

2.2

 

$1·         Rob Maness, a Republican from Madisonville
who is a retired Air Force officer and has

   
 

been endorsed by a Tea Party group........... 12.6

 .. 25.0............ 9.6.......... 19.5......

33.3

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today

MARY LANDRIEU..................

41.0

 

between Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republicans

BILL CASSIDY...............

318

 

Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness, for whom would you

ROB MANESS................

9.8

 

vote?

(UNDEC/DNK/WS)..............

15.5

Are you for or against the Affordable Care Act

FOR..................................

33.6

 

which is also referred to as Obamacare?

AGAINST........................

59.0

   

(DNK/WS)......................

7.4

Senator Mary Landrieu voted for President Obama's

MORE LIKELY.............

32.3

 

Affordable Care Act. Does knowing that make you

LESS LIKELY.................

53.8

 

more likely or less likely to vote to reelect her?

(DNK/WS)......................

13.9

Pinsonat-poll

 

 

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For more info to see the entire press release

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Bernie burns sizeWatch Bernie Pinsonat discuss current poll numbers, the US Senate race, Congressional races, upcoming Louisiana legislative session, Governor John Bel Edwards' popularity, favorables of other elected officials, future political races such as Treasurer, Attorney General and more topics. 

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