After Lane Grigsby, a conservative Republican released his poll, conducted by a Republican firm with ties to David Vitter, Jim Brown and Stephen Sabludowsky analyzed the results.
Below is the transcription of the Google Hangout discussion and the video:
Sabludowsky: There are a lot of Democrat Senators who are in a big hole right for a lot of different reasons. That certainly can turn around. Let's move on to the Governor's race. What happens with that in terms of the poll's numbers?
Brown: I thought it was very interesting. A Governor's race is around the corner. David Vitter, no matter what baggage he might have, still holds up pretty well. In the Governor's race today, if you look at the candidates who have expressed an interest, David Vitter has 27.6%, and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne has 13.1 %. However, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has 26.4%; almost dead even with Vitter. He's a Democrat and has some strong support; he was newly re-elected as Mayor of New Orleans. I was at a funeral this week of former legislator Hank Lauricella. Mayor Landrieu was there and stayed around for a long time. He was there to pay his respects to Lauricella, but he lingered around a long time and visited a lot of the Jefferson parish people. Maybe he has some thoughts about the future in terms of the Governor's race. In the poll, they also threw in John Kennedy, the popular State Treasurer who is very anxious to run, but he received only 8.5%. John Bel Edwards, who has announced that he's running, received 4.6%. Around 20% were undecided. It looks like the only major Republican challenger right now is Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, unless Kennedy spends a ton of money. If Mayor Landrieu doesn't run because he thinks he has a good job as Mayor of New Orleans, it gives Jay Dardenne a lot of growing room. Many moderate Republicans don't like Vitter's conservatism and the way in which he plays hardball politics. There's room for Dardenne, and there's room for Landrieu. It's still fluid. What is interesting is that Vitter's approval rating is high - 60%. Yet that only turns around for him in a Governor's race in which he only has 27% support. His popularity is not so strong that people will tell him "Come back home and run for Governor!" If he wants to be Governor, he has to fight. His high approval numbers for the Senate don't transform themselves into strong support in the Governor's race.
Sabludowsky: That election is a year and a half away. Right now, we seem to be looking at a popularity contest between the candidates that are well-known; Landrieu, Vitter, Dardenne, and Kennedy. That's what the numbers reflect at this point in time. We don't know what's going to happen with John Bel Edwards or somebody Republican who comes into play. I'm not convinced that Mitch Landrieu will run. There's no indication from him that he will. During the Mayor's election, he said that he was not going to run. On the other hand, he did say that he was not going to run for Mayor when he was Lt. Gov., and he did jump into that election at the last minute. One really does not know. But I'm not convinced that he'll run. I think it will depend on what happens to Mary Landrieu.
Brown: I agree. That gives Dardenne a lot of growing room. Dardenne is a good candidate; he's been around a lot, and he gives good speeches. He has tremendous growing room as this whole thing shakes out.