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Breaking SMOR poll: Landrieu hits new low, 39%

Written by  // Thursday, 08 May 2014 13:56 //

landrieu-tea-partyBernie Pinsonat and SMOR has just released its annual spring Louisiana Poll which focused upon the increasingly-important Louisiana US Senate race—the election in which incumbent Senator Mary L. Landrieu faces a number of republican candidates.

 

According to the SMOR poll, based on a survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters conducted April 28-30, 2014, . Senator Mary Landrieu continues to drop, with her positive rating now hitting an all-time low of 39% and her negative numbers skyrocketing to 58%.

The results also reflect a gap between “likely voters and “voters”. According to Pinsonat, SMOR used “likely voter” criteria because it was focusing upon an actual upcoming election, rather than a poll showing general popularity. Likely voters, are considered habitual voters, thus, are likely to vote this fall.

Below is the poll results including a historical graph of polls since 2008.

Senator Landrieu’s job performance rating continues to deteriorate. Her positive ratings have dropped to an all-time low of 39% in this current poll. Her negative ratings have increased by 30 percentage points in a little over a year and a half (from 28% in September 2012 to 58% in this current poll).

In the September 2012 poll, there was a 24 percentage point gap between Landrieu’s negative ratings and those for the President. At present, Senator Landrieu’s negative ratings (58%) are only 6 points behind those of President Obama (64%).

While the intensity of likely Louisiana voters giving Senator Landrieu a rating of “excellent” has varied little since September 2012 (12% in 2012 and 15% in the current poll), the intensity of those voters rating her job performance as “poor” has tripled (from 13% in 2012 to 39% in the current poll).

Landrieu continues to maintain high positives (79%) among African-American voters, but she continues to lose ground among white Democrats (male and female) and among female

Republicans. From the Spring 2013 poll to the Fall 2013 poll, Landrieu’s positives among white

Democrats dropped 18 points (17 among males and 19 among females). Since last fall, her positive ratings have dropped another 9 points among white male Democrats and 6 points among white female Democrats. Over the past year, Landrieu’s positive ratings among Republicans dropped by 17 points (from 30% to 13%). Her level of positive ratings from Republican females went from 38% to 17%.

The gender gap which benefitted Landrieu in the past is getting increasingly narrower.

U.S. Senate Race

Senator Mary Landrieu draws 36% (down from 41% last fall) of the vote in a four-way trial heat with Republican challengers Bill Cassidy, Paul Hollis and Rob Maness who collectively draw 46% (35% Cassidy, 4% Hollis and 7% Maness) of the vote; of the remaining, 17% are undecided and 1% refused to say.

Landrieu draws most all (79%) the African-American vote with another 10% of African-American voters being undecided.

However, Landrieu only draws 20% of the white vote; with her highest being 43% (down 3 points from last fall) among white, female Democrats. The three Republican challengers draw 36% of the white, female Democrats with the remainder of that group being undecided or not saying.

Landrieu only garners 4% of the Republican vote. The “gender gap” among Republican male and Republican female voters is only one percentage point.

Congressman Bill Cassidy is heavily favored among Republican voters. In the four person trial heat, Cassidy draws 59% of the Republican vote. Among Republicans, undecided comes in second at 18%, Maness third at 12%, Hollis fourth at 6%, and Landrieu last with 4% (1% refused to say).

Reelection issue—“Obamacare”

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) remains very unpopular in Louisiana and Senator Landrieu’s steadfast support for it poses a huge hurdle to her reelection effort. Only 31% of the voters responded they were “for” the Affordable Care Act which is also referred to as Obamacare while 63% responded they were “against” it. Eighty-one percent of white voters said they are against the ACA; 78% of African-American voters were for it.

Among voters who responded they were undecided in the U.S. Senate race, 79% said they were against the Affordable Care Act; 11% said they were for it.

Reelection issue—Seniority

After being informed that Landrieu had been a U. S. Senator since 1996 and was recently appointed to Chair the U.S. Senate Energy Committee, 59% of the voters thought electing someone new was more important than keeping her in office. Landrieu’s seniority does little to sway voter choice for the U.S. Senate. Of the voters who responded they were undecided in the U.S. Senate trial heat question, 72% were of the opinion that electing someone new was more important than keeping her in office.

SMOR Louisiana Poll

May 2014

ABOUT THE POLL

This statewide poll was solely developed and conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research, Inc., and funded by private subscribers.

Interviews for this statewide poll were completed by telephone with 600 likely Louisiana voters from Monday, April 28, through Wednesday, April 30, 2014.

The overall margin of error for the statewide statistics obtained from the survey data is not greater than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. In other words, there is a 95% certainty that the statistics presented from the results obtained on this survey of 600 likely voters statewide will not be more than 4.0 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained if all of the likely voters in the state would have been interviewed.

The sample error may be larger for subgroup responses based on attitudinal, demographic and geographic variables such as area, age, etc. There are other sources of potential error which cannot be calculated including question wording and order of question presentation.

An interval sample design was used to select telephone numbers from a sample frame of telephone numbers for likely Louisiana voter households. Both landline and cellular telephone numbers were included in the sample frame.

Respondents were assigned to one of four geographic areas based on their parish of residence. The four geographic areas along with the parishes comprising those areas are:

New Orleans metropolitan area, (includes Jefferson, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St.Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany and Washington parishes); Florida-River Parishes, (includes Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville,Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, Tangipahoa, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana parishes); Acadiana-southwest, (includes Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lafourche, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes); North Louisiana, (includes Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne, Concordia, DeSoto, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle, Lincoln, Madison, Morehouse, Natchitoches, Ouachita, Rapides, Red River, Richland, Sabine, Tensas, Union, Vernon, Webster, West Carroll and Winn parishes).

A statistical weighting procedure was employed to normalize the sample to the likely voter population based on voter age category.

SMOR Louisiana Poll, May 2014

Frequency Responses—based on a survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters, conducted April 28 - 30, 2014

● Please tell me if you think the following officials are doing an excellent, good, not so good or poor job?

NOT (NOT FAMIL
EXCELLENT GOOD SO GOOD POOR /DNK/WS)
● President Barack Obama ......................... 16.1.............. 18.5........... 13.9.............. 49.6............. 1.9
● U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu ................... 15.0.............. 24.0........... 19.6.............. 38.7............. 2.7

● An election for U.S. Senate will be later this year. As I mention several people who have said they will run for the Senate, please tell me if your impression of that person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable:

VERY SOME SOME VERY (NOT FAMIL
(Randomize) FAVOR FAVOR UNFAVOR UNFAVOR /DNK/WS)
● Bill Cassidy, a Republican from
Baton Rouge who is a medical doctor
and U.S. Congressman ............................... 20.2........ 32.9........... 14.8.............. 16.7.............. 15.4
● Paul Hollis, a Republican
from Mandeville who is a state
representative and businessman ................... 5.0........ 29.7........... 13.9................ 9.3.............. 42.1
● Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from
New Orleans who is the incumbent
U.S. Senator ............................................... 28.2........ 12.7........... 14.0.............. 44.2................ 0.9
● Rob Maness, a Republican from
Madisonville who is a retired
Air Force officer and currently
works in the utility industry ....................... 10.5........ 29.0........... 11.7................ 8.5.............. 40.4

● If the election for U.S. Senate were held today between Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republicans Bill Cassidy, Paul Hollis and Rob Maness, for whom would you vote?

● Are you for or against the Affordable Care Act which is also referred to as Obamacare?

● Mary Landrieu has been a U.S. Senator since1996. She was recently appointed to Chair the U.S. Senate Energy Committee. Which do you think is more important; keeping her in office due to her seniority or electing someone new?


BILL CASSIDY....................... 35.4
PAUL HOLLIS .......................... 3.9
MARY LANDRIEU ................ 36.0
ROB MANESS .......................... 7.1
(UNDEC/DNK) ....................... 16.6
(REFUSED/WS) ........................ 1.1
FOR .......................................... 31.2
AGAINST ................................ 62.5
(DNK/WS) ................................. 6.4
KEEP HER IN OFFICE........... 37.4
ELECT SOMEONE NEW ....... 58.5
(DNK/WS) ................................. 4.0

landrieu-slide-smor-poll

 

SMOR poll: Stoking the liabilities of Landrieu's stroke

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