Monday, 01 November 2010 13:24
US, Louisiana Elections Picks: GOP Gets House, Vitter, Dardenne, Richmond To Win
Written by  stephen-sabludowsky

steve_sabludowsky01As publisher of Bayoubuzz, I do not endorse candidates for elective office, but I have not been and am not loath to predict the winners and losers in Elections 2010.  So, hold on to your money until you read my Election morning line.  Don’t forget, this is the inside scoop from a real insider who tells me these picks can’t lose:

 

 

 

US House: A gimme. The GOP takes over Congress which is a referendum on President Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress.  Democrats have called their opponents, the Republicans the “Party of No” during the past two years.  With the GOP taking over the House, the demos can now say the Republicans are now the “Party of Know”.   With a takeover of the House, the GOP will be vested with taking back responsibilities for the nation’s problems.  To some extent, depending how it goes in the race for the US Senate, the Republicans will be negotiating with the Tea Party, the Democrats and the White House for their identities.   Unquestionably, Obama and the Democratic Congress moved to the left and that left the middle class and independents in a position where they became more fearful over the unknown.  Now the GOP must “man up” and show they can begin to govern especially if they want to take over the helm in two years.

 

US Senate: The Democrats will keep the “August Body”.  The Republicans will lose seats in the race for the US Senate due to the selection of Tea Party candidates but they will likewise pick up some seats because of energies of that movement and because of their almost unified anti-Obama agenda.

 

Louisiana US Senate: Senator David Vitter’s 2010 re-election will go down as one of the most remarkable political comebacks in US political history.

 

Twelve years ago, during the depths of the Monica Lewinsky drama, House of Representative, Speaker-elect and Louisiana Congressman Bob Livingston resigned after his personal embarrassment.  In 2007, shortly after Vitter’s admission of a “terrible sin”, the biggest named-Louisiana republican who came to his support was Livingston followed by almost all of the Louisiana republican leadership.

 

Over the past years since the scandal revelation, Vitter maneuvered through legal minefields and completely ignored the media except in very controlled environments.

 

Once Obama and the Democrats took over, Vitter began to fast-forward his return.

In fact, since the beginning of 2008, I do not recall a single piece of campaign literature that did not include the Obama’s, Nancy Pelosi’s or Harry Reid’s names.

 

In recent years (especially after Katrina), even in the best of times for Democrats nationally, Louisiana has been red. While other states chose Obama by wide margins, Louisiana gave him only 40% of the vote.

 

This number more than any other,  underscores the immense difficulty Charlie Melancon and virtually all Democrats have in the state.   Now that Obama and the Democrats are viewed unfavorably nationally, the odds that a Democrat can win statewide against a well-known, well-funded Republican becomes that much more limited.

 

With the US economy being on its knees during the Bush-Democratic Party sharing of political power, Vitter and the GOP started to taint Melancon and the Democrats as being the sole responsible party for the country’s economic problems.

 

The top of Vitter’s campaign web site says it all—“ Melancon's Spending Spree $9,476,000,000,000 Senator David Vitter's Fiscal Responsibility $0”

 

Does Melancon have a chance on Tuesday?  The latest poll has him twelve points behind Vitter.   We all know that polls are useless on Election Day, and Melancon must receive the full benefit of voter turnout.

 

If Melancon were able to muster up only a fraction of the emotions evidenced in the Superdome on Sunday night, he might be able to pull it off.   Unfortunately for him, David Duke and Barack Obama are not on the ballot and the sense of urgency is for now is in elections past.

 

Melancon has said that if the traditional Democratic forces turn out, he could win.  His challenge over the next 24 hours would be to rally those forces—a feat unknown in Louisiana since the a majority cast its ballot and voted “ For the Crook”, Edwin Edwards as it was important.

 

Lt. Governor

Democrat Carolyn Fayard has done a remarkable job in making herself known and getting out the voters.  Unfortunately for her and the Democrats,  Jay Dardenne has the advantage of being a Republican at a time when that party is beginning to rule the state’s politics.

 

While Fayard slam-dunked her Democratic opposition in the primary, Republicans out-voted Democrats in that election by a nearly two to one margin.

 

Now with the US Senate election being on the agenda, it is more probable that the Republicans and their supporters will out vote the Democrats leaving Fayard with the likely choice to run for Jay Dardenne’s Secretary of State’s seat in that upcoming election.

 

US Congress:

The only seat that the Democrats will take in Louisiana will be the 2nd Congressional District in New Orleans and Jefferson Parish.

 

Louisiana Representative  Cedric Richmond will defeat Congressman Joseph Cao in a relatively close match.

 

Cao might have been Obama’s favorite Republican but Richmond is a Democrat and the House votes on vital issues these past two years have been “oh-so-close”.

 

Cao will get the same medicine as many Democrats this year who will fall mainly due to the fact that they have a “D” next to their names at the polls.

 

While Cao supporters have attempted to associate Richmond with William “Bill” Jefferson and have clamored that Richmond is and will be a future embarrassment to Louisiana,  the 2nd Congressional District will do the same as voters in Louisiana and in the US are doing.  They will be ignoring the character issues and will pull the lever for Richmond because they “like the way he votes”.

 

Shortly after tomorrow’s elections there will be a ground-swell  of cries from the Republicans and the Democrats claiming we have reached the point of bi-partisanship and that it is time to put the differences aside and to cross the aisle together as Americans and solve the big issues that separate us all.

 

Baloney. Behind the scenes, both parties will be strategizing for Election 2012 and the bickering will come within the confines of each political party.  Cooperation between the Democrats and the Republicans will be a “wish and a myth” as Presidential candidates will likely stake out to the far right and the far left so they can win their party’s primaries.

 

So, get out your cash and head to your favorite bookie.

by Stephen Sabludowsky, Publisher of Bayoubuzz.com

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