Monday, 03 September 2012 07:01
New Orleans Saints can’t fumble the opportunities and win Super Bowl
Written by 

spag-vitt2-newI have always liked statistics as a component of sports, as opposed to statistics as a subject in school. Case in point, in order to achieve my masters degree many years ago, I completed ten courses. I had nine A's and one C. The stinker course? Statistics. Of course, that was the day before pocket calculators when high computing was a gizmo called a slide rule, which looked like a ruler carried on your belt like a cane knife. All the architectural majors carried them, and not one of them could have figured out an earned run average to save his life.

 

 

So decades later, it is appropriate revenge that sports has evolved into a culture of stat-heads. Bill James was the primary culprit, at least for baseball, as he used statistics and arcane terms such as regression theory and coefficients to determine the intrinsic value of a Texas leaguer over a frozen rope. So it was with some trepidation that I attempted to discover a statistical method that would support my theory that an improved Saints defense under Steve Spagnuolo would guarantee another Super Bowl championship.

That would make sense since the Saints offense under Drew Brees has been the most proficient in recent NFL history. The Saints offense has ranked No. 1 in the league four of the past six years, so it makes sense to a simple mind that the league's best offense merely needs a good defense that would not fritter away all those points. So, as Casey Stengel would have recommended, let's look it up. How did the defenses of the most recent Super Bowl champions rank? I looked at the six Super Bowl champions since Katrina (hey, everything else we talk about is framed "Before Katrina" or "After Katrina").

At first glance, the defensive rankings proved nothing. Supporting the theory were the Steelers, ranked No. 1 after the 2008 season; the Packers, ranked No. 5 after the 2010 season; and the Giants, ranked No. 7 after the 2007 season. But the other three winners had defenses ranked well down the list. The Giants last year ranked No. 27 in the league, the Saints in 2009 ranked No. 25, and the Colts of 2006 ranked No. 21. And that is when the lightning bolt struck home!

Defensive rankings are misleading because they are determined strictly by total yards given up. If one team takes a big lead, they might call off the dogs and give up some late gratuitous bend-but-don't-break yardage. The key to any defense is how disruptive are they? Sure enough, five of the past six champions ranked fifth or higher in turnover ratio. Although the Saints' defense in 2009 ranked only 25th, they were disruptive picking off balls and forcing fumbles. And we have seen some of the same during the pre-season. More interceptions and more fumbles created.

So our season prediction is simply this: If the Saints' defense ranks among the top five in turnover ratio and its offense continues to perk along, the Saints will win the Super Bowl. Since all predictions are worth what you paid for them, I must interject the logic of a headline I once read while I was a newspaper man in Baltimore. The prescient headline writer wrote: "Colts must score points to win." Even Bill James couldn't argue with that!

 by Jim W. Miller

Jim Miller's new book, "Where the Water Kept Rising," is now available in local bookstores and at his website: www.JWMillerSports.com

 

{jvotesystem poll=|25|} 

 

Will Saints be in the Super Bowl?

  
 More New Orleans Saints news    
Join the Saints GroupNew Orleans This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

              

 

 

 

  Want more Louisiana news?               

 

 

 

Louisiana News

Louisiana Politics

Louisiana Business

Louisiana Government

             
 Baton Rouge News

Lafayette News

Shreveport  News

New Orleans News

   
Signup for Our Newsletter

qr

Scan the QR Code above using your smartphone to signup for our newsletter.

Login to post comments
  • Cat Fights on the Hot Cement Confederate New Orleans statues
  • Ex-Saints, Bears, Bills, NFL Exec, Jim W. Miller discusses NFL Draft tomorrow
  • Trump's new plan; Curtains on tax returns release; 40% say Trump-Russia; Probing Obama admin
  • Watch Louisiana Governor Edwards talk about CAT Tax failure

catRarely, have I seen few issues that have generated as much raw heat, tension, and passion than the Confederate monuments controversy. 

Just as existed during the real civil war, where brothers battled brothers, social media is the battleground, particularly Facebook, pitting friend against friend.

On one side of the tense divide, there are those who are protecting the New Orleans civil war era monuments.  Burnt in effigy, forever, is the symbol of Mayor Mitch Landrieu for up-ending what the monument protectors consider to be the loving civil society of New Orleans.

Lately, events have turned somewhat militaristic.

Some protectors of the Confederate monuments have been staying vigilant, in person and online, even surveilling during the wee hours of the morning, waiting for the next Mayor Landrieu attack. On Sunday morning, with protections of snipers, masked workers and a dumbstruck audience, the worst of all of the monuments was cut and carried., the Liberty Monument. 

Read More

miller nfl live2 5It’s D-Day or Draft Day tomorrow in the NFL.

More specifically, Thursday represents the first day of the NFL draft 2017.

Read More

 

trump curtainsThe major President Trump news of the day focuses upon taxes, not only the tax cuts he is proposing but his own taxes, which he obviously, refuses to unveil.

 

Read More

edwards play money 1

At a press conference today, Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said the CAT Tax did not pass the House Ways and Means Committee.  The Governor, in addressing the media said that "the fate of that bill was decided long before we unveiled it".

Read More

latter-blum2

Sen. Appel talks budget, economy

TRUMP TALK

Dead Pelican

Optimized-DeadPelican2 1 1