Wednesday, 22 October 2014 16:24
Maness's spoiler in US Senate race and the David Duke-Johnston-Bagert election
 

manessWith now less than two weeks left to the Louisiana US Senate race, one of the real questions churned about is the impact of the Tea Party candidate, Rob Maness .

 

According to Real Clear Politics poll, Landrieu is ahead with 38 percent, Cassidy with 36 percent and Maness with 9 in the most recent WAFB/Fox8/Raycom poll.

In the Rasmussen poll, one week ago, Landrieu led 41%, Cassidy 38% and Maness 14%.

Various polls have had Maness in high-single to mid-double-digit territory.

The most recent polls from Real Clear Politics shows :

Polling Data

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Cassidy (R)

Landrieu (D)

Spread

RCP Average

9/20 - 10/19

--

--

48.0

43.2

Cassidy +4.8

WAFB/FOX8/Raycom

10/14 - 10/19

605 RV

4.0

43

40

Cassidy +3

Rasmussen Reports

10/13 - 10/14

965 LV

3.0

52

43

Cassidy +9

CBS News/NYT/YouGov

9/20 - 10/1

2187 LV

2.0

47

41

Cassidy +6

PPP (D)

9/25 - 9/28

1141 LV

2.9

48

45

Cassidy +3

CNN/Opinion Research

9/22 - 9/25

610 LV

4.0

50

47

Cassidy +3

At this point, Maness’s presence in the race will impact the election by forcing a runoff with the two main candidates being Cassidy and Landrieu.  Cassidy has led Landrieu in all runoff scenarios.

So, what type of pressure, if any, will be applied by the Republicans to squeeze Maness to pull out of the election?  Should he, if he were to get an "offer he cannot refuse or an undisclosed incenntive package?

Maness insists he is not going anywhere and that he will be in the race through Election Day and will be in the runoff.  In fact, he is planning a major media buy and has a web competition as to which ad to run.

Months ago, I predicted that he would be pulling out some time before the election and that David Vitter would be involved in the process, as he likely was involved when Paul Hollis jumped ship. I felt he would ask himself, "why am I really in the race now?  What is the real benefit to me and to the people I represent to just be the spoiler?"  "What might be the real downside if I were to stay in the field?"

Nonetheless, he says he is in the race and he appears to be genuine and we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

Still the scenario reminds me of the 1990 US Senate Race between J. Bennett Johnston, Klanner and "Nazi-lover" David Duke and Ben Bagert.  Duke and Louisiana Sen. Bagert were republicans.

Bagert pulled a shocker at the very end of the campaign and pulled out.

Duke screamed “back-room” deal which fit well into his political mantra of being an outsider being attacked by mainstream America, not just mainstream Louisiana.

At the time Bagert quit, Johnston polled around 50 percent, Duke about 30 percent, and Mr. Bagert making up much of the difference.

Only days after the announcement, Johnston won 753,198 votes (54 percent) to Duke's 607,091 (43 percent).  Votes cast for Bagert were not counted because of his withdrawal.

A long-term runoff battle was averted in an emotional election which splintered the electorate.

Duke went on to run for governor the next year and was defeated by Governor Edwin Edwards.

Will we see history repeat itself with a last minute withdrawal and if so, whom would benefit if Maness called it quits?

Just wondering? 


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