Thursday, 06 November 2014 11:44
Cassidy beat Landrieu-Obama ticket, now US Senate Race, part 2
 

cassidy-smllThe Louisiana US Senate race crawls or roars on, depending upon one's perspective.

After a shocking national romp for the republicans, Louisiana, remains, the only US Senate contest in on the mid-term map.  On Wednesday morning, the day after the bloodbath, Lawrence Chehardy, Jim Brown and Stephen Sabludowsky discussed the election issues.  In part one, the Google Hangout focused upon the reasons Landrieu did so poorly and what it might portend for the upcoming December runoff. 

 

In closing out that hangout, Brown said: 

what will the Democrats do?  She's not relevant to control the U.S. Senate so they probably spent most of their money, will they go out and raise millions more to try to save her when the vote is not that relevant to begin with.  So a lot of uncertainty that will shake out more in the weeks to come but when it's all said and done the odds are very much against her being reelected.

We pick up from that point:

SABLUDOWSKY: Have to agree and that's pretty much what I was thinking to and I was wondering whether or not she was going to get over 40%, 41%.  Bayou Buzz had a poll actually and we hit almost on the number, it was 43-40  Landrieu headed Cassidy so I think we were very very close compared to so many of the other polls.  But   I think that both you. definitely hit the nail on the head and that is how does she motivate, how does she motivate people to get out or are national Democrats going to be able to raise the money for her?  At this point in time the Republicans, if they include Louisiana, can have 55 states assuming that Alaska and Virginia go the Republican way-- so is there a big difference between 54 and 55? Or 45 and 46? So what's the real value proposition  for say Republicans in Louisiana to beat Mary Landrieu and alsowhat's the big motivation for Democrats to keep Mary Landrieu? Lawrence?

CHEHARDY: Well the motivation for Republicans is simply this- that  the more Republican votes they have in the Senate mean they need fewer Democratic votes to break a filibuster and of course vice versa, on the side of the democrats,  the more Democrats they have makes they make it much easier for them to give a filibuster, have a filibuster over and issue or piece of legislation that they don't want to pass.  So there is some motivation there to elect one of our own depending upon what side you're on.  What is going to be interesting is not just what the outside groups are going to do with regard to this will race, but you look at the message of both candidates: Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness both went after two Barack Obama that was the central theme in their campaigns, campaign against Barack Obama. Sen. Landrieu's campaign theme was to try to show the good that she has done for Louisiana.  When you look at the vote last night, what sold?   What sold was  an anti-Barack Obama message.  So I think the buttom line of all this is that the voters are very unhappy with the status quo.  They don't like what is going on in Washington. That is why the Republicans did so well nationwide. I believe that is one of the reasons why Republicans did so well in Louisiana last night and why I believe that Senator Landrieu is going to have to come up with a different message to convince voters to come to her.  Because I do believe that the anti-Washington anti-Obama feeling is still there and it's going to be there throughout this runoff.

SABLUDOWSKY: Jim?

BROWN The thing I would add on that to is that if the race had have been little more in Landrieu's favor,  if she had been 47 to 42 in the lead, there would have been more motivation for two hang in there. What you're going to find is--when we analyze this whole thing, Bill Cassidy is not going to win this elections, Mary Landrieu is going to lose this election.  I was on the phone, you know,  I am from  North Louisiana on the phone with some friends of our local races, judgeships, Dist. Atty. races throughout the state and we got talking about the U.S. Senate race and they were saying  and these are key elected officials, judges, district attorneys, mayors, and they have said that they have not personally seen Mary Landrieu in years, in years they are saying and the retail politics, in the column I wrote last week on Bayou Buzz, Steve, when I talked about the importance of doing it just not doing it all through TV, She did this massive TV buy, Landrieu she spent right at 20 main dollars in her race--Cassidy did the same thing but he had the anti-Barack Obama going with him and so Mary really needed the retail politics, didn't see a lot of sheriffs for example, assessors, the local courthouse crowd endorsing Mary this time, well didn't really  go in ask anybody to organize it and as a consequence she lost that three or four points.

PART 3, TOMORROW

 


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