Tuesday, 21 July 2015 13:20
Odd, but might a Vitter, Dardenne or Angelle victory simply be in the numbers?
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odd-numbersIt might be odd, but could the next Louisiana gubernatorial election win be in the numbers?

Perrhaps. 

 As pointed out in the article,  “Why Democratic Governors and Republican Mayors Have Become Rare”, “Midterm electorates tend to be smaller, whiter, older and more Republican; presidential electorates tend to be larger, more demographically diverse, and more Democratic.”

Currently, the only Democratic candidate running for Governor is Jon Bel Edwards, who is running against three republicans.

Poll results indicate that republican David Vitter and Edwards will be in the runoff.  Also runnning are Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne, both republicans.

In Louisiana, the theory might hold some water--att least--over the past two decades. 

Louisiana’s gubernatorial elections is always run during an odd-number-year.  Kathleen Blanco won in 2003, Bobby Jindal in 2007, 2011.  This year, the Louisiana governor race precedes next year’s presidential contest.  The presidential elections, also occuring every four years, is set for the even years.

In Louisiana, Mike Foster was elected in 1995 and then again in 1999.  Late in the 1995 campaign, the former democrat suddenly converted to become a republican and made the runoffs along with Cleo Fields, a democrat.   Foster ended up beating Fields.   

The only democratic governor during this twenty-year period has been Blanco.   

 

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