This new poll (with crosstabs) shows Republican US Senator David Vitter and Democrat Jon Bel Edwards neck and neck in the race for Louisiana Governor spot. The poll, released by Triumph Campaigns conducted on behalf of several subscribers, is at odds with another poll released earlier this month. That poll, conducted by Verne Kennedy of MRI, also on behalf of various politically-active subscribers, stated that Scott Angelle had over-taken Vitter, a claim, vehemently opposed by the Vitter campaign.
I discussed these various comparative polls here. The MRI poll was the most complete poll at the time of the writing, but, the other polls all had David Vitter well ahead of Angelle.
Today, after I first received the survey via email from presumably one of the subscribers, the poll did not include the crosstabs. Upon my request, Triumph Campaign’s Justin Brasell forwarded them to me. Also, via an email response to my question, Brasell stated this was an “automated telephone survey to landlines only”.
The survey begins with the following intro:
At the request of several subscribers, and in the context of the recently released MRI survey showing a dramatic shift in the race for Governor, this week’s survey focused exclusively on the race for Governor. Outside of the traditional screener and the basic demographics questions, the only question asked was the Governor’s ballot. A shorter survey allowed for a larger sample size. This survey contains 2,185 interviews and has a margin of error of 2.1%. SUMMARY: Very little has changed. If the election was held today, it would be a Vitter (31%)/Edwards (30%) run-off. Angelle (14%) and Dardenne (13%) are running a distant 3rd and 4th. Only 11% remain undecided.
Among other findings, the poll states:
“As we have seen consistently, Vitter is polling in the low 40’s among white voters and leads all other candidates by 20 points. As expected, Edwards is polling way out front among African-American voters.”
Vitter enjoys a potentially insurmountable lead among Republican voters. Likewise, Edwards is way out front among Democrat voters.
Vitter has a significant lead in 4 of the 7 Louisiana media markets. Angelle is beginning to galvanize his Lafayette base, while Dardenne maintains a slight lead in the Baton Rouge market.”
So, which poll, if any should we believe as being the most accurate?
Perhaps none, right now
In an interview with Dr. Michael Henderson, (Watch Part I), due to the public’s lack of interest at this point, the voters’ lack of familiarity with the candidates except for Vitter, the perception that the candidates’ political philosophies are rather close to one another and due to other factors, right now, there are too many uncertainties at this point to put much stock into any one poll. With only one candidate (Angelle) advertising on television so far, there has not been much electronic outreach to the voters. Vitter just launched his first TV ad yesterday. As the TV and other ads fire up, along with the negative spots, the public will tune in, become more knowledgeable and more likely more actively involved.
Henderson also noted that Vitter has an advantage at this time since he is much more financed than the other candidates and that candidates need funds in order to compete.
Few voters are paying attention to Louisiana’s race for governor. Less than one in three (29%) say they are following news about the election, and large majorities remain too unfamiliar with three of the major candidates to even offer an opinion about them. Unsurprisingly, then, the share of favorable and unfavorable opinions about Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, state Rep. John Bel Edwards, and U.S. Sen. David Vitter remain at essentially the same levels as in our March survey.
Additional findings about what Louisiana voters think about this year’s election include:
- With his greater name recognition, Vitter continues to lead in both the percent of voters with a favorable opinion of him (45%) and the percent with an unfavorable opinion (30%).
- Struggling with name recognition, the remaining candidates follow. Dardenne: 29% favorable and 8% unfavorable; Angelle: 18% favorable and 5% unfavorable; and Edwards: 13% favorable and 8% unfavorable.
- Dardenne leads in net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) at +21, followed by Vitter (+15), Angelle (+13), and Edwards (+5).
- Even as opinions of the candidates have shown little change, there has been a steep rise in the share of Louisiana residents who think the state is heading in the wrong direction. This share rose from 45% in January to 59% in July. It reaches 62% among registered voters. So far, no candidate has built an advantage among these disgruntled voters.
- About half of voters (52%) identify as conservative, including a third of Democrats. At this stage of the campaign, voters do not see wide ideological differences across the four major candidates. On a seven point scale where one means “very liberal” and seven means “very conservative,” voters on average place all four of these candidates close to a four (“moderate”) or five (“somewhat conservative”).
- Few voters are paying attention to Louisiana’s race for governor. Less than one in three (29%) say they are following news about the election, and large majorities remain too unfamiliar with three of the major candidates to even offer an opinion about them. Unsurprisingly, then, the share of favorable and unfavorable opinions about Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, state Rep. John Bel Edwards, and U.S. Sen. David Vitter remain at essentially the same levels as in our March survey.
- Additional findings about what Louisiana voters think about this year’s election include: the four major candidates. On a seven point scale where one means “very liberal” and seven means “very conservative,” voters on average place all four of these candidates close to a four (“moderate”) or five (“somewhat conservative”).
I feel confident the debate over the polls will continue as the debates over whom might be the best person to lead Louisiana for the next 4 to 8 years, also continue.
Friday, 21 August 2015 12:03
The Louisiana governor’s race Louisiana is inching closer. Polls generally have indicated that Republican US Senator David Vitter is in a tight race with Democrat Rep. Jon Bel Edwards, although there is one poll that notes a strong uptick by Republican Scott Angelle, Louisiana Public Service Commissioner. Republican Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne is also running for the top seat and is in the low teens and a virtual tie with Angelle in most polls.