Friday, 04 September 2015 11:47
Triumph's poll, with cross tabs, for Louisiana governor's, Lt. Governor and Insurance Commissioner race
 

angelleYesterday, afternoon, I received an email from a source, informing me of a new poll, showing basically no change in the Louisiana Governor's race with  Democrat Jon Bel Edwards holding a slight lead over Republican David Vitter .  This poll was conducted by Triumph Campaigns and it included the following email to poll subscribers.

 

After receiving the poll, I looked to see if it included cross-tabs, so, readers can determine more poll details including the poll's credibility.  I bring this up because, as in most elections, we have one group supporting a certain candidate claiming its poll is independent and another group saying, no, their poll is really the independent one, therefore the most accurate.  

As I did weeks ago when i last received the poll from Triumph, I asked Mr. Brasell to please forward the cross tabs to me so i could put up the poll.  

Later, I saw that other publications reported on the same poll with their commentaries but without including any cross tabs.

I received the poll this morning and thus, we are asking you to review the poll results (powerpoint presentation) with the cross tabs.

At this time, I am not commenting upon the poll, the consistency, the reliability of it nor comparing it to any other.

I understand that other polls will come out today and hopefully, when they do, they will include, not only the powerpoint presentation, but cross tabs, so we can compare the various polls' accuracies.

We shall see.   Here is the Triumph Poll including the CROSS TABS:

TO: SUBSCRIBERS
FROM: JUSTIN BRASELL / TRIUMPH CAMPAIGNS, LLC
DATE: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2015
RE: LOUISIANA POLITICAL SURVEY RESULTS

Governor’s Race:

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but overall, the ballot for Governor has not changed much. If the election for Governor were held today, it would be a Vitter (30.6%)/Edwards (31.4%) run‐off. Dardenne (13.2%) and Angelle (14.2%) are running a distant 3rd and 4th. Only 10.6% remain undecided.

However, it does appear the both frontrunners are beginning to solidify key blocks. Edwards is beginning to galvanize the African‐American vote. The previous August survey had him polling 64% among African‐American voters. The current survey has him polling 74%.

Vitter maintains a distant and consistent lead among white voters. He leads all challengers by at least 23 points among whites. Among Republican voters, Vitter is showing a 4-point jump over the previous survey, from 51% to 55%.

Down Ballot Races:

The race for Lt. Governor is shaping up to be a 3-way race between Kip Holden, John Young and Billy Nungesser. Holden leads with 31%, followed by Young (25%) and Nungesser (24%).

Holden is strong among African‐Americans (72%). Young trails Nungesser in Lafayette, Lake Charles and Alexandria, but makes up the difference with a 12 point lead in the New Orleans media market.

The race for Commissioner of Insurance has Jim Donelon holding at the 50% mark, with the Democrat, Charlotte McGehee, polling 31%. Donelon’s only announced GOP challenger is polling at 9%.

Thank you.

Please let me know if you have any suggestions for our next survey or if you have any questions. The presentation is attached.


TO: SUBSCRIBERS
FROM: JUSTIN BRASELL / TRIUMPH CAMPAIGNS, LLC
DATE: THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2015
RE: LOUISIANA POLITICAL SURVEY RESULTS

Governor’s Race:

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but overall, the ballot for Governor has not changed much. If the election for Governor were held today, it would be a Vitter (30.6%)/Edwards (31.4%) run‐off. Dardenne (13.2%) and Angelle (14.2%) are running a distant 3rd and 4th. Only 10.6% remain undecided.

However, it does appear the both frontrunners are beginning to solidify key blocks. Edwards is beginning to galvanize the African‐American vote. The previous August survey had him polling 64% among African‐American voters. The current survey has him polling 74%.

Vitter maintains a distant and consistent lead among white voters. He leads all challengers by at least 23 points among whites. Among Republican voters, Vitter is showing a 4-point jump over the previous survey, from 51% to 55%.

Down Ballot Races:

The race for Lt. Governor is shaping up to be a 3-way race between Kip Holden, John Young and Billy Nungesser. Holden leads with 31%, followed by Young (25%) and Nungesser (24%).

Holden is strong among African‐Americans (72%). Young trails Nungesser in Lafayette, Lake Charles and Alexandria, but makes up the difference with a 12 point lead in the New Orleans media market.

The race for Commissioner of Insurance has Jim Donelon holding at the 50% mark, with the Democrat, Charlotte McGehee, polling 31%. Donelon’s only announced GOP challenger is polling at 9%.

Thank you.

Please let me know if you have any suggestions for our next survey or if you have any questions. The presentation is attached.

 

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