Bayoubuzz

Written by {ga=staffwriters} Wednesday, 01 September 2010 15:31

How the mighty have fallen! For much of the state’s history, the Democratic Party has controlled state politics. Today, the party is on the road toward minority status.    

The major figures in Louisiana political history have all been Democrats.. The Long brothers were Democrats and ruled with an iron fist in Baton Rouge. In Washington, the state was represented by powerful Democrats like Russell Long, Allen Ellender, F. Edward Hebert and Hale Boggs.

As the Democratic Party moved toward the left on the national level, the voters of Louisiana gradually turned away from these historical ties. In the last presidential election, John McCain won almost 60 percent of the state’s votes, despite losing nationally by a large margin. Louisiana was one of McCain’s best states and it’s easy to understand why. The displacement of thousands of traditionally Democratic voters after Hurricane Katrina only solidified Louisiana’s status as a red state.  

Currently Louisiana’s congressional delegation has seven Republicans and only two Democrats: U.S. Congressman Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville) and U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA). In Baton Rouge, there are seven statewide elected officials and all of them are Republicans except for Attorney General Buddy Caldwell and interim Lt. Governor Scott Angelle. In the upcoming race for Lt. Governor, the four leading candidates are Republicans.  

In the Louisiana Legislature, Democrats still maintain a small margin, but Republicans are making gains with each election and have an opportunity to attain a majority in the next statewide election in 2011. This would mark their first legislative majority since Reconstruction.   

Voter registration is still weighted toward the Democratic Party, but that is changing as more voters become Republicans or Independents. Currently, 51 percent of state voters are registered Democrats, but Republicans now comprise 26 percent and Independents and third party registrants total 23 percent. The voter registration advantage for Democrats in Louisiana has been shrinking for decades. For example, in September of 2000, 61 percent of statewide voters were registered Democrats, while only 22 percent of voters were Republicans and 17 percent were Independents or third party candidates.. In a mere ten years, the advantage for Democrats over Republicans in Louisiana has shrunk from 39 percent to only 25 percent.  

Except for African Americans, new voters tend to register Republican or Independent. As older white Democratic voters die, they are being replaced by voters not as loyal to the party of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. In addition, many of the older voters who are registered Democrats tend to be politically conservative and vote Republican in most state and federal elections. Independents also lean more toward the Republican Party, according to recent poll data.   


All of these trends are leading toward a very uncomfortable electoral season for the Democratic Party in Louisiana. While the party still retains the loyalty of African American voters, white voters are leaving the Democrats in huge numbers.



In this upcoming election, look for all GOP candidates to link their Democrat opponents with the unpopular policies of President Obama. It has certainly worked for David Vitter who is the big favorite against Charlie Melancon in this fall’s U.S. Senate election.

Vitter’s advantage was on display in Saturday’s election. In the predominantly Democratic 2nd congressional district, turnout was an anemic seven percent of eligible voters. Throughout the state, 207,289 votes were cast and almost 50 percent were Republicans, even though only 26 percent of registered voters in Louisiana are members of the GOP.  

In Louisiana and across the nation, Democrats have been unable to match the excitement level of Republican voters. Traditionally, the party in control of the White House and Congress will lose seats in mid-term election, but the turnover this year may be greater than normal. In the latest nationwide Gallup poll, Republicans lead Democrats by a 51 to 41 percent margin in the generic congressional ballot. According to the Gallup polling organization, the 10 percentage point lead is the GOP’s largest in the “history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.”

In a conservative state like Louisiana, the challenge for Democrats is even greater. On Saturday, in the Senate primaries, more people voted for David Vitter than Charlie Melancon, even though Democrats allowed Independents to vote in their primary and approximately 75 percent of voters were eligible to participate.  

In the fall elections, Democratic candidates will need to maintain the intensity and loyalty of African American voters, while trying to distance themselves as much as possible from President Obama. This political hat trick will be a difficult one to accomplish, which is why most pollsters believe this election season will be a good one for the Republican Party in the red state of Louisiana.

http://www.facebook.com/jeff.crouere

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Jeff Crouere is a native of New Orleans, LA and he is the host of a Louisiana based program, “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m.weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. For more information, visit his web site at www.ringsidepolitics.com. E-mail him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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OH DON'T WORRY...

... there will be a message sent on November 2nd. It will be LOUD and CLEAR.

Kerry Fox , September 10, 2010

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...

Democrats, Independents and even moderate Republicans should vote on November 2d and send a message to the Republican Party to reject extremism.

Demo Dave , September 08, 2010

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Much ado about nothing.

The GOP is going nowhere this election. If I were a faithful Democratic party supporter I wouldn't worry about it. I'd just stay home or do something "fun" instead of going to the polls.

Kerry Fox , September 07, 2010

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Not So Fast

Jeff hit the nail right on the head when he mentioned the displacement of thousands of traditionally Democratic voters after Katrina. The GOP and the Bush White House embarked on a cynical campaign to take advantage of the storm for partisan political purposes. Racism has been a major factor in the GOP's growth in Louisiana since the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That year Barry Goldwater carried Louisiana in his landslide defeat for the Presidency. In 2008, a lot of Landrieu voters voted for McCain. It will be interesting to see if they vote for Melancon as well. There are an awful lot of undecided female voters in the recent polls on the Senate race and Charlie Melancon has a better chance of winning their votes. The GOP candidates for Lt. Governor have a higher name recognition factor than the Democrats running, but as the campaign unfolds, the Democrats' numbers will start climbing.

David Quidd , September 04, 2010

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hmmmmm...

I completely agree with the CRA as being THE cause of the financial meltdown. I disagree with your overall analysis however. Liberal policy that allows welfare mothers to have child after child is a major drain on our economy. However, conservative ideas such as "the war on drugs" needlessly costs us untold billions a year, and the conservative idea of us being the world's policeman also is a needless drain on our nation. I - with the exception of abortion - am in complete agreement with Ron Paul's agrenda of "limited government" and "follow the Constitution"; I also share his beilefs of ending the failed war on drugs, greatly reducing our military presence in the world (we do have aircraft carriers and intercontental balistic missiles - it's not as thoough we really need "boots on the ground" to .. um .. "make our presence felt" do we?). I am very glad to see that Obama, Reid and Pelosi has energized the right - more happy to see their far left policies cause independents to move to the GOP's side (in this election at least), but I am concerned that we may empower the spendthrift Democrats YET AGAIN by alienating centrist voters on such issues as gay marriage or abortion. BTW, "fiscal responsibility" (or if you prefer "fiscal conservatism") doesn't have SQUAT to do with "social issues" - rather it amounts to concepts such as "limited government' - "balanced budgets" - etc. It has nothing to do with gay marriage or abortion - not a damn thing.

Kerry Fox , September 03, 2010

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Political contradiction

It is the liberal social policies and programs that have caused the majority of the profligate spending. Just one of them the Community Reinvestment Act in tandem with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came uncomfortably close to bringing this country to its knees financially. But there will not be a let up in spending any time soon. Liberal social policy is at variance with fiscal conservatism.

jackamo , September 02, 2010

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yes .. but

The country is moving in a socially liberal but fiscally conservative direction. Just as the Dems may lose power due to far left spending policies, the GOP can hurt themselves with too far right social policies. Just as the Dems have learned to keep quite about divisive issues such as gun control, so too the GOP would be wise to speak only of wasteful government spending and not alienate centrists with far right social platform stances. It may be somewhat dishonest to do so, but that still does not make it an unsound political strategy.

Kerry Fox , September 02, 2010

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Consultant

Very accurate analysis here. The Democrats are experiencing the same problem the Republicans had in the early 90's as the religious right fought for control. The Democrats are being drawn far left and that is causing the center lefties to shift to Independent or no party affiliation. It is also moving a portion of the former dems into the Republican party as they really can no longer identify with the core philosophy of the democrat left leadership. My prediction; Republicans will take the house and tie in the Senate.

Adrian Bruneau , September 02, 2010

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