Tropical Blog: NHC gives wave 50 percent chance of development by weekend; uncertainty remains

  // Thursday, 21 August 2014 08:36 //

One model Tuesday had a wave in the Atlantic strengthening into a hurricane and heading straight for New Orleans in 10 days. If that turns out to be correct, that may be the best tropical forecast in the history of computer models.

This morning, the NHC has not changed their thinking. A 30 percent chance for development in the next two days and 50 percent chance by the weekend.

Even if something forms, we are too far out to give any accurate forecast. As a matter of fact, various models have a system moving anywhere from the US East coast to the Texas/Mexico line, with some not developing anything!

The point is, it is far too soon to speculate where a storm is going when there is still no storm. At the moment, we will continue to monitor the wave about 2,600 miles from New Orleans.

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Metairie, Louisiana

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