Wednesday, 26 September 2018 13:45

Poll: Trump, Kavanaugh take hit but GOP still intact in US Senate

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As the hours close in upon the historic Judge Brett Kavanaugh hearing set for Thursday, with the Supreme Court hopeful faces eager US Senators, with eyes upon his accuser Christine Blasey Ford and with President Donald Trump continues to slam his opponents, other witnesses, other accusers and other attorneys, the quesion arises--in the political scheme of things, who's winning and who's losing?

Politico and the Morning Consult has released its new survey and it might be called a mixed bag. Taking a hit is Kavanaugh and Trump. But staying in the game is the US Senate. Even if somehow Kavanaugh were not to be confirmed or should resign, if the Republicans retain the US Senate, as expected, Donald Trump will get a second bite at the apple.

Here are the numbers: 

As anticipation builds for Christine Blasey Ford's testimony in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee tomorrowa new Morning Consult and Politico poll finds Republican women are beginning to lose faith in Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump.

REPORT | RESULTS

The survey was conducted Sept. 20-23, 2018 among 1,966 registered voters before the New Yorker published their piece revealing the second accuser.

Key highlights:

Opposition for Kavanaugh's nomination grows amid sexual assault allegations: This week, 37% of voters say the Senate should not vote to confirm Kavanaugh, compared to 34% who say he should be confirmed (29% DK/no opinion). Last week, 34% supported a Kavanaugh confirmation while 30% opposed (36% DK/no opinion).

  • An uptick in GOP opposition: This week, the share of Republicans who oppose his confirmation dropped 11 points, with 58% support and 14% oppose.
    • The shift was driven by an 18-point fall in support among Republican women, with 49 percent now in favor and 15 percent in opposition. Last week, 60% said confirm and 6% said don't confirm last week
  • 75% have heard 'a lot' or 'some' about Kavanaugh sexual assault claims
  • 37% say Senate Republicans are moving too fast on the Kavanaugh nomination, 20% say they are going at the right speed and 15% who say too slow
  • 63% of Democrats and 35% of independents say Senate Republicans are moving too quickly

Trump approval tumbles among GOP women amid Kavanaugh assault claims: Views of 72% of GOP voters now approve of the president and 23% disapprove, down 16 points since the poll last week

  • Among GOP women, the drop was 19 points since last week, with 68% approving and 26% disapproving

Voters predict GOP will retain the Senate, split on the House: 41% of voters believe the GOP will maintain control of the Senate, 32% say Democrats.

  • 65% of Republicans say the GOP will maintain control of the Senate, 58% of Democrats say otherwise
  • 38% of voters believe Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives, 36% say Republicans

The full results are also available at morningconsult.com

Any references to the survey must be credited and linked back to Morning Consult/POLITICO.

Questions or requests can be directed to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Methodology:
This poll was conducted from Sept. 20-23 2018, among a national sample of 1,966 registered voters. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

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