Christopher Tidmore-New Orleans Elections

Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:32

Battle of Louisiana U.S. Senate polls: Kennedy, Campbell lead

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kennedy officeby Lou Gehrig Burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net 

 Campbell leads Senate race

    A new poll on the U.S. Senate race conducted by JMC Analytics has Democrat Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell leading the pack and headed for the runoff.
    That’s the conclusion reached by John Couvillion of JMC Analytics in analyzing the poll, which was conducted for the campaign of Republican U.S. Rep. John Fleming.


    Campbell tops the field with 23.5% of the vote, giving him a big lead over his Democratic rival,  Caroline Fayard, who came in with 9.4%.  
    Here are the results of the latest poll:
    PSC Foster Campbell (D) – 23.5%.
    State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) – 15.5%.
    U.S. Rep. John Fleming (R) – 14.5%.
    U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany (R) – 14.4%.
    Attorney Caroline Fayard (D) – 9.4%.
    David Duke – 2.6%.
    Retired Col. Rob Maness (R) – 2.4%.
    The battle to see who will face off with Campbell in the runoff is between three Republicans – Kennedy, Fleming, and Boustany.  Their numbers are a virtual tie for the number two spot.
    When undecided voters were asked who they were leaning to and factored into the results, here is the outcome:
    Campbell – 24.6%.
    Fleming – 16.3%.
    Kennedy – 15.9%.
    Boustany – 15.8%.
    Fayard – 10.3%.
    Duke – 2.8%.
    Maness – 2.6%.
    So the race for a runoff spot between the three Republicans  remains  very  close,  and  anyone  of  the  three could win the runoff spot.

Meanwhile...another poll and Duke
    Meanwhile, another poll on the U.S. Senate race came up with some different findings.  It was an independent poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Jacksonville, Florida, for Raycom Media.
    Here are the results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 24.2%.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 18.9%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 12%.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 11.4%.
    John Fleming (R) – 10.2%.
    David Duke (R) – 5.1%.
    Rob Maness (R) – 3.4%.
    Raycom will use the results to determine who will participate in its televised debate on November 2 to be held at Dillard University.  Locally, it will be televised on KSLA-TV.
    Candidates must reach a 5% threshold to make the cut.  That means this televised debate will include the former Klansman David Duke since he received 5.1%  in the survey.
    But will Duke participate?  It is ironic that the debate is being held at the historically black university.  He said he is concerned about security, noting that Dillard has been supportive of Black Lives Matter, which he has been critical of.
    If he does attend, and so far he has said he will, it will likely be a media circus and draw more national attention to the Senate race.
    
Averaging the polls
    To get a more accurate picture of the Louisiana Senate race, we looked at the four most recent polls and averaged them out.
    The polls included two from JMC Analytics, one from Southern Media and Opinion Research, and one from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.    
    Here are the results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 16.9%.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 16.7%.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 14%.
    John Fleming (R) – 11.8%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 11.2%.
    David Duke (R) – 3.5%.
    Rob Maness (R) 3.3%.
    Other Candidates/Undecided – 22.6%.
    The averaging gives a picture of a possible runoff between Kennedy and Campbell.  But three other candidates are within striking distance – Boustany, Fleming and Fayard.

 

Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter.

www.faxnetupdate.com/
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