Averaging the polls
These three polls are independent polls, which means that no political campaigns were involved. The results are not that far apart in all three.
Let’s average out the three polls among the leading candidates:
John Kennedy (R) – 20.3%.
Charles Boustany (R) – 15%.
Foster Campbell (D) – 15%.
Caroline Fayard (D) – 11.3%.
John Fleming (R) – 9%.
In looking at the average, it appears that Kennedy will definitely be in the runoff. The race is between Boustany and Campbell for the other runoff spot.
Interestingly, if Fayard was not in the race, Campbell would have about 26% of the vote and would be leading the pack.
Should Campbell make the runoff, the polls show that he has an uphill battle to win the seat.
The presidential race
The three polls also surveyed the president’s race in Louisiana. Not surprisingly, Republican Donald Trump is poised the capture the state’s eight electoral voters.
SMOR found Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton 50-25%, a 15-point margin. UNO had Trump ahead of Clinton 49-35%, a 14-point margin.
But MRI came up with a different result. It showed the gap between Trump and Clinton has closed, giving Trump only a 43-36% lead. In a September poll, MRI had Trump ahead, 52-35%.
The SMOR poll asked respondents to rate five elected officials on job performance. Here are the results:
State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) – 65%.
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) – 60%.
Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) – 50%.
U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) – 45%.
President Barack Obama (D) – 43%.
The UNO poll also asked respondents for a job performance rating on Gov. Edwards. It came in at 56%.