Wednesday, 02 November 2016 17:01
Chris Wilson: Trump's Poll crescendo around Comey announcement; Still Clinton's to lose
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wilson trump part1The last time Chris Wilson and I discussed elections during a Bayoubuzz video interview, was shortly after the Democratic convention.  At that time, the walls were caving in on the Republican Party and on Donald Trump.  Now, six days before the elections, Trump is suddenly on a major upswing, some Democratic-strong states' walls are collapsing and the news simply gets worst every day for Hillary Clinton as Wikileaks, the FBI Director James Comey email case reopened and Obamacare put a major laceration on the nation's healthcare.  Trump could hit the 270 electoral college votes.  What a turnaround!!

Wilson is the former Director of Research, Analytics and Digital Strategy for the 2016 Ted Cruz Presidential Campaign.  He is the CEO of Wilson Perkins and Allen, a prestigious Research and Data Science firm.  The Cruz campaign was the most data analytics-driven of all republican political campaigns in American history.   

While the candidates speak spin, Wilson speaks data.  Thus, I wanted to get an update on the numbers on the Presidential race and the Congressional battles.

Here is a rough summary of the highlights of our discussion

After the Billy Bush tape was released, the world change for Republicans.   Trump cratered.  White Republican women with a college degree hit a 20 to 40-point movement against Donald Trump.   You saw the decline with Trump but with Kelly Ayotte,  Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson or Marco Rubio had to climb their way back.

It’s been a long process in about 2-3 weeks.  The recovery crescendo came around the time of the Comey announcement about Hillary Clinton.

The election is somewhat of a jump ball although Silvers gives it now about a 70 percent chance Hillary wins because of early voting and the map design.

Trump would have done more early on. For instance, in Nevada, Trump needs to win on election day by about 20 points because of the Democratic early vote advantage.

Romney won on election day by 15%, but, he had a good get-out-the vote operation.

Watch more...Click on the video below.  Tomorrow, Part 2

 

 

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