Thursday, 10 November 2016 14:11

Pinsonat explains how pollsters, media got Donald Trump victory so wrong

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pinsonat poll prezIs the polling industry dead, now that Brexit and the Trump victory proved that the surveys were simply not consistent with the final results? Who's to be blamed for being so off the mark? The pollsters? The media?

In an online video discussion with Louisiana pollster Bernie Pinsonat, President of Southern Media & Opinion Research, Pinsonat explained why he believes there was such a variance between the projections and the final vote.

He blames some pollsters, the media, and the inartful science.

Pinsonat believes that the pollsters and the media do not adequately explain the margin of error. For instance, a 4.5% margin of error presents a +/-9% error range. Also, Pinsonat believes that the media does not emphasize the fact that the polls are no more than a snapshot in time for each poll taken.

Pinsonat, who has been in the business for many years said that some "pollsters act like gospel" as if they will predict the results and that some "should be ashamed of themselves", claiming that pollsters should provide all documentation and details such as who paid for the polls, which often is not done in more local races.

Pinsonat agrees that in the presidential race, the pollsters missed calculating for the intensity of the voters and they nor the general public cannot predict turnout.

In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton depended on upon much more African American vote, which simply did not materialize in certain key states.

Last modified on Thursday, 10 November 2016 16:56
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