Christopher Tidmore-New Orleans Elections

Thursday, 10 November 2016 15:22

Pinsonat: Campbell has very uphill battle against Kennedy in Louisiana US Senate race

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campbellThere is a U.S. Senate race here in Louisiana, but, does anybody care?  Anybody watching? 

On Tuesday election day, not only did Donald Trump edge out Hillary Clinton but, in Louisiana, Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, beat twenty-two other candidates to earn a place in the December runoff election.

Yet, as Louisiana pollster Bernie Pinsonat, explained in an interview with Bayoubuzz publisher Stephen Sabludowsky, it doesn't look like the election will be much of a contest.  For one, Louisiana is a very republican state, Donald Trump edged Hillary Clinton by 20 percent.  The only Democratic victory in recent years was the gubernatorial race of 2015 and Pinsonat said, the Republican incumbent, David Vitter was a terrible candidate for Louisiana governor, which greatly helped John Bel Edwards to defeat the US Senator. 

On Tuesday, Kennedy led the field with 25% and the two major Democratic party candidates Campbell (17 percent) and Caroline Fayard (12 percent) only fielded 29 percent off the vote. The rest of the vote went to republicans or lesser known democrat and independent candidates. Thus, roughly 70 percent of the vote went to Kennedy and to other non-Democratic Party candidates, which reduces the prospects of a Campbell upset. 

Perhaps, most striking is the fact that Kennedy won more white-democratic voter support than Fayard and Campbell combined.  

Pinsonat also pointed out that only Kennedy had a really solid turnout across the state.  At this point in time, he said the New York Times has his candidacy near 100 percent certainty of victory.

 

Pinsonat, whose recent US Senate race poll numbers were very accurate in terms of the final outcome, praised Kennedy's TV ads and criticized the other general election candidates  television commercials as being non-effective.  He pointed out that the treasurer was able to connect with voters, using the Donald Trump model, be simple and to project his political philosophy to national issues.  Neither Kennedy or Trump have any national policy records.  So far, the Louisiana voters have viewed Kennedy only as a statewide elected official. 


Also, Pinsonat said the congressional delegation members are not as  dominant as they once were in prior years, which he said might account for the difficulty for them to appeal to a broad statewide audience.  In the Tuesday contest, two Republican congressmen, Charles Boustany and John Fleming, were not able to take advantage of their federal service records.

Pinsonat concurred that the voters don't need tangible solutions when selecting a candidate but will vote on impression, image, something Trump was able to take full advantage in his presidential run.  

The pollster also posed the possibility that Campbell's primary supporter, Louisiana Governor Edwards might feel pressure and could suggest that the democratic candidate withdraw from the race.  From a personal political perspective, with Campbell being a longshot, the governor needs not pick ann unnecessary political battle considering other republicans ready to contest Edwards for the governor's mansion.

To add insult to injury, with Kennedy already ahead by eight percent of the vote, in a very strong conservative, pro-Donald Trump state, with the full body of voters supporting other Republicans for the US Senate position, Kennedy doubts the national party will send in much campaign cash to help Campbell.

Below is the relevant segment of the interview.

 

 

Last modified on Thursday, 10 November 2016 16:56
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