(Photo: LaToya Cantrell)
According to one poll, on behalf of one of the leading candidates in the race, Desiree Charbonnet has a five point lead over New Orleans City Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell with Michael Bagneris ten points behind. That poll was commissioned by the Charbonnet campaign and conducted by Greg Rigamer.
The other poll, this one “independent” but commissioned by business persons and The Advocate owner John Georges presents a totally different picture. This one, performed by Verne Kennedy (MRI) of Market Research Insights, has Cantrell with a slight one-point lead over Michael Bagneris, 27 to 26 percent with Charbonnet closely trailing at 25 percent.
In essence, as reported by The Advocate, this poll show those three candidates in a statistical dead heat.
The MRI polling data over the summer has shown a trend upward for Bagneris.
In the Aug.7-8 survey, the undecided vote led with 26% followed by Judge Desiree Charbonnet with 25 percent, Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell at 23 percent and former Judge Michael Bagneris with 19 percent. Troy Henry, who has run for New Orleans Mayor twice before had risen to 7 percent.
In a July MRI poll, Charbonnet and Cantrell led with 33 and 32 percent, respectively.
Somewhat surprisingly, the recent MRI poll, shows that Henry, despite recent TV advertising, has dropped to 4 percent. Also, the undecided vote which led in the August MRI poll has has now dropped to 18 percent.
One of the observations made by MRI’s Kennedy might be foretelling how the race could ultimately conclude. Kennedy said that it appears that Charbonnet and Bagneris’s support appears to be coming from the same pot of voters.
Cantrell with best multi-race support-- New Orleans Mayor's Race, Council, other election: UNO post-vote stats--from Dr. Ed Chervenak,
Pollster Couvillon--Louisiana voter turnout, despite New Orleans Mayor's race, could be a record low--vote derrick edwards, john schroder for Treasurer.
Thus, if either Charbonnet or Bagneris were to end up in a runoff with Cantrell, one might assume the combination of their two tallies could be sufficient to help one of those two candidates (Bagneris or Charbonnet) obtain a majority.
Of course, assumptions like this could be dangerous to make. In the recent gubernatorial race, former Senator David Vitter was expected to win as he was the leading Republican defeating two other members of his own party in the general election. However, due to attacks made by Vitter against his two Republican opponents, Jay Dardenne crossed over to support the ultimate winner Democrat John Bel Edwards and the other major Republican candidate, Scott Angelle, failed to endorse his party entry, Vitter.
While all four of the leading candidates in the Mayor's race are Democrats, the Louisiana Governor's race is a text-book case as to what might happen when general election political attacks by one candidate ends up hurting in the runoff.
Which candidate, Cantrell, Bagneris, Charbonnet, Henry has best chance to prevail in New Orleans Mayor race? Tell us below
To date, the New Orleans Mayor's race has not generated much mud, however, last week, one Super PAC began to level charges against Charbonnet. It is uncertain whether that Super PAC is alligned with any one of the candidates.