Sunday, 15 October 2017 20:13

Louisiana vote turnout, despite New Orleans Mayor's race, NOLA elections, a record low? Featured

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boothRemember the old joke that the Louisiana Republican Party was so small, it could hold its meetings in a phone booth?

Lots have changed since then. The Party has become dominant in the very conservative state.

Well, shockingly and unfortunately, let's update the funny. Based upon yesterday's turnout, pull out the phone booth. It's needed.

Despite a horrible turnout, there were some winners.

At the top of the ticket, Democrat Attorney Derrick Edwards and Republican former State Representative John Schroder prevailed in the Louisiana State treasurer's race.  The New Orleans Mayor's race also produced a runoff, between two black women,  LaToya Cantrell and Desiree Charbonnet. 

 However, all around, the voter lack of interest interest resulted in some stunning numbers. According to pollster and political analyst John Couvillon, the turnout was--get this--13.5%.  Couvillon, President of JMC Analytics and Polling wrote in his post-election newsletter that this was "one of the worst, if not the worst turnout ever"

Vote Derrick Edwards

John Schroder for State Treasurer

Had there not been a New Orleans Mayor's race and City Council race yesterday, imagine what the turnout might have been as the highly contested race for an empty seat was a strong drawing card for voters.  Theoretically, that is. Only 29% percent of the New Orleans voters cast their ballot.

Here is Couvillon's analysis: 

Moderate black turnout: Blacks were estimated to be 26% of the early vote (they represent 31% of the electorate), and JMC Analytics and Polling estimates that the statewide electorate (with both Election Day and early voting included) electorate was 70-28% white/black. Again, this was due to the over-sized influence of Orleans Parish, which cast 19% of the statewide total vote (typically, their statewide influence is about 8%);


Blacks remain heavily Democratic: Derrick Edwards was the lone Democratic candidate on the ballot, but he did not receive much (if any) organizational support from the Democrats, and he had very little money to spend. Furthermore, the Neil Riser campaign (unusual for a statewide Republican) invested heavily in getting a respectable black vote in New Orleans, but in the end, traditional party preferences reasserted themselves: JMC estimates that the black vote went 76% for Edwards, 9% for Angele Davis, 7% for Riser, 5% for Schroder, and 4% for the other candidates. The numbers weren’t much different in New Orleans (where Riser invested heavily), 75% for Edwards, 8% apiece for Angele Davis and Neil Riser, and 4% apiece for Schroder and the other candidates;


The “market value” of the Democratic party label: Not only did Derrick Edwards receive an overwhelming (76% statewide, 75% in Orleans Parish) black vote, but he received a respectable percentage of the white vote as well considering his limited resources/statewide exposure: 15% of the statewide vote, a 32% plurality in Orleans Parish, and 16% in East Baton Rouge Parish. In other words, the placement of a single Democrat on the statewide ballot pretty much guarantees that candidate 30% of the statewide vote.

The runoff is scheduled for Saturday  November 18. The Mayor's runoff and State Treasury runoff are on the ballot. 

With fewer races on the docket compared to Saturday general election, you can bet the phone booth will be waiting and ready.

Read 632 times Last modified on Monday, 16 October 2017 13:39
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