Thursday, 19 October 2017 10:04

Louisiana Treasurer Race: New Orleans the key, but Edwards chances slim

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Ask any politico: Elections are a game of numbers. It is a question of where a candidate will place assets to achieve the winning numbers.

 numbers-guy, John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling said in his post-election day interview with Bayoubuzz earlier this week, New Orleans area played a major role in Saturday’s turnout and vote--for both runoff candidates, Republican John Schroder and Derrick Edwards.  Based upon a variety of different factors, it will continue to do so.  However, a city and region that has a large African American community, it likely  an African American candidate for State Treasurer, Edwards, won't be in that winner circle numbers in the runoffs.  While he might get a strong backing coming from the city, Edwards, a Democrat, did not and likely will not receive the official Democratic endorsement.

In part three in a Facebook Live Video interview held earlier this week, Couvillon discussed the media markets, the dominance of that market played in this past weekend’s vote for both candidates and the obstacles that Edwards faces on election day November 18.

Below is part 3 of a conversation I had with John Couvillon.  You can watch the segment on video.

COUVILLON: You know that kind of out-of-the-box thinking is the thing that I've always admired in campaigns, kind of like the time back in the 2013 lieutenant governor's race there was a Saints game on Thursday night, Billy Nungesser was the only person who was running ads on a Thursday night game.  But if you think about it it's an act of genius--because in addition to all the people the New Orleans metropolitan area who would be watching, you have Saints fans throughout the state as well and they would be tuned into the game and if you're the only person running ads to me that's a stroke of genius as opposed to doing the cookie cutter idea of running ads during the ten o'clock news of this or more likely the six o'clock news.

So from my perspective I can tell you I saw a Neil Riser ad, it was an August, I believe that was one of those hurricanes back then, on the Weather Channel.  Angele Davis did not really start going heavy with her ads until very late.  My understanding was she was doing buys elsewhere in the state because of course they're cheaper media markets. New Orleans is a very expensive media market to play in and if you want to do it you need to have a lot of money to drop into that region. 

And you know this is also it's kind of fascinating, Steve, when you're talking about the dominance of New Orleans in this election, typically the New Orleans media market which is everything from Bogalusa to Houma and everything in between--in other words the 504 and 985 area codes, typically represents 34 to 35 percent of the statewide vote.  This time it was 45.  So in this instance, and of course the the vast majority that 45 are a significant portion rather was the approximately 20% that came from Orleans Parish alone, so if you were serious state wide candidate, that 35 or in this case forty five percent of the vote is too big for you to ignore. 

And I think that that's something that the Schroder campaign realized, because one of the things I was seeing, not only in my specific polling but in looking at the election night results was that John Schroeder had consistently done better in a lot of my target parishes with the early vote.  I started seeing the numbers reverse as the precinct voter vote was coming in.  And nearly every parish with a few major exceptions--Jefferson,  Terrebonne, Lafourche St. Tammany those are some pretty big parishes and so the point being was the Schroder campaign,  because of their dominance, had the freedom to be able to do what it took to win which meant dominating the New Orleans media market as you're as you're mentioning to me, as well as the numerous ads I saw elsewhere.

So I think that that was you know wise use of media is certainly something that played a part in this, especially if you have the additional challenge of limited resources where you can't afford to be on TV for two months or let alone one. 

SABLUDOWSKY: Does Edwards have any chance at all?

Very slim.  Because what I see happening is--you're talking about one Democratic candidate getting 30% of the vote.  And the vote that went to Davis and to Riser is pretty Republican, pretty much of a Republican vote.   And you have an additional factor to which I think it's it doesn't really affect the ultimate outcome but it is something that has to be considered when talking about how the vote split will go in November and that is-- you have a similar configuration that you did on October 14th is that you're going to have a New Orleans mayor's race on the ballot.  So Orleans Parish will again have an outsized influence.  And there really weren't there really wasn't a lot of interest in the rest of the state to begin with, so if you are someone who actually showed up to vote in October it's almost certain that you're going to vote in November, so I would expect similar turn outs is what I'm getting at--which would mean that the approximately 65 to 70 percent that chose a Republican candidate, they're largely going to line up behind Schroeder-- is what my expectation is.

SABLUDOWSKY: On a really good day, Democrats would probably in a statewide race-- they'd be lucky to even come close.  If the Democratic Party isn't really going to assist the candidate then what chance does that Democrat have?

And in fact that's an interesting dynamic that you just mentioned that you know thanks for bringing it up--Derrick Edwards got the vote he did without an iota of help from the Democratic Party.  And he had so little resources to compete, he was not timely filing his ethics reports.  And so you're talking about someone who had very little money to play with, yet he got thirty percent of the vote.  Now there's an analysis, or excuse me, an analogy rather that you could use to predict Derrick Edwards as November's showing and that is if you were to look at the Kip hold an example in the 2015 lieutenant governor's race--where Kip was the only Democrat on the ballot and he got about thirty percent of vote--there were a couple crucial differences between that race in this race.  Number one because Kip Holden was the mayor president of East Baton Rouge Parish for three terms, East Baton Rouge Parish is the epicenter of the Baton Rouge media market which covers twenty percent of the state and so of course he got a lot of favorable coverage and did very well in the Baton Rouge media market in that runoff.  In other words he got votes that a Democrat would not normally get. I would also argue that in 2015, even with Kip Holden getting forty five percent--part of that was attributed to a strong Baton Rouge vote, part of it too was I think that when you had John Bel Edwards winning by a landslide, to some extent there was a coattail effect that went on which was even though Kip could not afford to be on TV, you had people who they went to the polls they vote Democratic at the top of the ballot, and then they probably voted Democratic just as well in the lieutenant governor's race .  So in other words, absent those two factors I think Kip Holden would probably have gotten about 35% of the statewide vote. I think that's about what Derrick Edwards is going to get this time.

Below is part 3 of a conversation I had with John Couvillon.  You can watch the segment on video.

You know that kind of out-of-the-box thinking is the thing that I've always admired in campaigns, kind of like the time back in the 2013 lieutenant governor's race there was a Saints game on Thursday night, Billy Nungesser was the only person who was running ads on a Thursday night game.  But if you think about it it's an act of genius--because in addition to all the people the New Orleans metropolitan area who would be watching, you have Saints fans throughout the state as well and they would be tuned into the game and if you're the only person running ads to me that's a stroke of genius as opposed to doing the cookie cutter idea of running ads during the ten o'clock news of this or more likely the six o'clock news.

So from my perspective I can tell you I saw a Neil Riser ad, it was an August, I believe that was one of those hurricanes back then, on the Weather Channel.  Angele Davis did not really start going heavy with her ads until very late.  My understanding was she was doing buys elsewhere in the state because of course they're cheaper media markets. New Orleans is a very expensive media market to play in and if you want to do it you need to have a lot of money to drop into that region. 

And you know this is also it's kind of fascinating, Steve, when you're talking about the dominance of New Orleans in this election, typically the New Orleans media market which is everything from Bogalusa to Houma and everything in between--in other words the 504 and 985 area codes, typically represents 34 to 35 percent of the statewide vote.  This time it was 45.  So in this instance, and of course the the vast majority that 45 are a significant portion rather was the approximately 20% that came from Orleans Parish alone, so if you were serious state wide candidate, that 35 or in this case forty five percent of the vote is too big for you to ignore. 

And I think that that's something that the Schroder campaign realized, because one of the things I was seeing, not only in my specific polling but in looking at the election night results was that John Schroeder had consistently done better in a lot of my target parishes with the early vote.  I started seeing the numbers reverse as the precinct voter vote was coming in.  And nearly every parish with a few major exceptions--Jefferson,  Terrebonne, Lafourche St. Tammany those are some pretty big parishes and so the point being was the Schroder campaign,  because of their dominance, had the freedom to be able to do what it took to win which meant dominating the New Orleans media market as you're as you're mentioning to me, as well as the numerous ads I saw elsewhere.

So I think that that was you know wise use of media is certainly something that played a part in this, especially if you have the additional challenge of limited resources where you can't afford to be on TV for two months or let alone one. 

SABLUDOWSKY: Does Edwards have any chance at all?

Very slim.  Because what I see happening is--you're talking about one Democratic candidate getting 30% of the vote.  And the vote that went to Davis and to Riser is pretty Republican, pretty much of a Republican vote.   And you have an additional factor to which I think it's it doesn't really affect the ultimate outcome but it is something that has to be considered when talking about how the vote split will go in November and that is-- you have a similar configuration that you did on October 14th is that you're going to have a New Orleans mayor's race on the ballot.  So Orleans Parish will again have an outsized influence.  And there really weren't there really wasn't a lot of interest in the rest of the state to begin with, so if you are someone who actually showed up to vote in October it's almost certain that you're going to vote in November, so I would expect similar turn outs is what I'm getting at--which would mean that the approximately 65 to 70 percent that chose a Republican candidate, they're largely going to line up behind Schroeder-- is what my expectation is.

SABLUDOWSKY: On a really good day, Democrats would probably in a statewide race-- they'd be lucky to even come close.  If the Democratic Party isn't really going to assist the candidate then what chance does that Democrat have?

And in fact that's an interesting dynamic that you just mentioned that you know thanks for bringing it up--Derrick Edwards got the vote he did without an iota of help from the Democratic Party.  And he had so little resources to compete, he was not timely filing his ethics reports.  And so you're talking about someone who had very little money to play with, yet he got thirty percent of the vote.  Now there's an analysis, or excuse me, an analogy rather that you could use to predict Derrick Edwards as November's showing and that is if you were to look at the Kip hold an example in the 2015 lieutenant governor's race--where Kip was the only Democrat on the ballot and he got about thirty percent of vote--there were a couple crucial differences between that race in this race.  Number one because Kip Holden was the mayor president of East Baton Rouge Parish for three terms, East Baton Rouge Parish is the epicenter of the Baton Rouge media market which covers twenty percent of the state and so of course he got a lot of favorable coverage and did very well in the Baton Rouge media market in that runoff.  In other words he got votes that a Democrat would not normally get. I would also argue that in 2015, even with Kip Holden getting forty five percent--part of that was attributed to a strong Baton Rouge vote, part of it too was I think that when you had John Bel Edwards winning by a landslide, to some extent there was a coattail effect that went on which was even though Kip could not afford to be on TV, you had people who they went to the polls they vote Democratic at the top of the ballot, and then they probably voted Democratic just as well in the lieutenant governor's race .  So in other words, absent those two factors I think Kip Holden would probably have gotten about 35% of the statewide vote. I think that's about what Derrick Edwards is going to get this time.

 

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