Sunday, 19 November 2017 09:59

JMC’s Louisiana Treasurer’s race results, Schroder-Edwards, by the numbers

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treasurer wrapLast night, John Schroder, now-Louisiana Treasurer-elect, won a convincing victory against Democrat Derrick Edwards in an election that had worse than an abysmal turnout.  John Couvillon President and JMC Polling and Analytics published the following early Sunday morning on his website:

The 2017 election cycle in Louisiana has concluded with last night’s runoffs, and Republican former state representative John Schroder is now State Treasurer. However, his 56-44% victory was identical to the margin that Republican Bill Cassidy defeated Mary Landrieu in the 2014 runoffs. There was a unique set of circumstances at play leading to this identical result, which can be explained by these highlights gleaned from examination of unofficial precinct data:

 

  1. Extremely low voter turnout: In the primary, 401K voted in the Treasurer’s race, which itself was abysmal for a statewide election. That low turnout further dropped to 373K (or 13%) in the runoff;
  2. Statewide turnout was actually propped up by the mayoral runoff in New Orleans, and turnout in that one parish increased 12% over primary turnout. At the same time, turnout dropped 11% in the other 63 parishes. Because of this, an unprecedented 22% of the statewide vote came from Orleans Parish – compared to an already high 19% of the statewide primary vote coming from this one parish;
  1. Early voting remains popular: JMC has calculated that in the primary, 23% of the vote was cast early, while in the runoff, 25% did. That is just shy of the record 26% who early voted for the 2016 Presidential election. More importantly, this marks the sixth statewide election in a row starting with the October 2015 statewide primary where early voting has exceeded 20% of the total vote cast;
  2. Stronger black turnout: In the primary, the breakdown of the electorate was 71-26% white/black, which is on the low side for black turnout. From unofficial precinct data, JMC has estimated that turnout in white precincts decreased 14% from the primary, while black turnout increased 6%. This resulted in an estimated 67-31% white/black electorate – the last time black turnout was this strong was for the 2012 Presidential race (with Barack Obama on the ballot);
  3. A new Democratic voting base: Increasingly, the base Democratic vote in Louisiana has two consistent components to it: (1) a near unanimous black vote (although numerical turnout varies from election to election), and (2) a more liberal white voter base from both Orleans and East Baton Rouge Parishes (Despite an essentially invisible runoff campaign, Edwards received 53% of the white vote in Orleans and 27% in East Baton Rouge).

Louisiana Treasurer's Race 

 

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