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Friday, 25 June 2010 13:27

BP Oil Spill: High Chance For Tropical Cyclone Development Near Gulf Of Mexico

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A tropical disturbance that  could cause problems in the BP oilg spilled-Gulf of Mexico is showing signs of increased organization.

According to Weather.com  "Satellite images now reveal an increased concentration of thunderstorms near a broad area of low pressure just east of Honduras and Nicaragua.  Shearing upper-level winds are expected to diminish as the low drifts toward the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula the next few days.  Therefore, development of this into the season's first Atlantic tropical depression is possible.

A Hurricane Hunter flight has been scheduled for Friday afternoon, if necessary, to investigate the low.

This is the current weather advisory as of 1:36 pm from the National  Weather Center:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS'


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS

TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY ORSATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THISSYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECASTTO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTEREDJUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ATROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEMHAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THENORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OFTHIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.    

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA / ROBERTS'

 

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