The national debt has grown almost $6 trillion and the much ballyhooed stimulus plan was an utter failure. Other than the successful raid to kill Osama Bin Laden, the President does not have a glowing record of success to tout to skeptical American voters.
Americans who were sold a steady diet of “Hope and Change,” are understandably upset. Surprisingly, this anger has infected the Democratic Party and voters in several states are embarrassing the President.
In West Virginia, a felon incarcerated in a federal prison in Texas, Keith Judd, received 41% of the vote against Obama in the presidential primary. In Arkansas, lawyer John Wolfe, Jr., who only campaigned in Little Rock by distributing flyers in front of the State Capitol, received 42% of the vote. Yet, most embarrassing for Obama is that in Kentucky, 41% of the people voted for “uncommitted” instead of voting for the President.
It is pretty bad for the President that over 40% of the people in three states will vote for almost anything else other than his re-election. In the fall, the President should forget about campaigning in Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia. He might as well add North Carolina where 20% of the Democratic voters chose “no preference” and Louisiana where 24% of state Democrats chose another candidate for President.
Today, he once again faces “big bad” John Wolfe, Jr. in the non-binding Texas primary. If Wolfe, who has practically no money or name recognition, receives over 20% of the vote, it will be another embarrassment for the President who is winning the Democratic nomination in an ugly manner.
With his new gay marriage support, the President’s chances in the Bible Belt South are slim to none. The good news is that the President has fewer states to worry about and visit in the fall. He can focus his energies on the Midwest, Northeast and West. The bad news is that his margin for error is decreasing.
While Obama is dealing with Democratic defections, Romney is doing very well in the Republican primaries, garnering over 70% of the vote against candidates who spent millions of dollars campaigning against him. Republicans seem to be galvanizing around Romney, presenting a united party against the incumbent.
Romney will also have the advantage of a massive campaign war chest. In this election, Romney will be able to match Obama dollar for dollar in fundraising. Four years ago, John McCain relied on federal financing, which amounted to only a fraction of what Obama spent on his campaign.
While it is tough to beat an incumbent, it is much easier to run against the architect of a failed economy. Remember Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush.
To win, Obama will not only need Romney to make a mistake, he will also need a shake-up in his campaign, something to breathe life into his re-election chances. His best bet is to boot brainless Joe Biden from the ticket in favor of Hilary Clinton. This will energize Democrats, women and many undecided Independents. Clinton has high approval ratings, while Biden has only a 40% approval rating in the swing states.
It’s too early to see if Obama will make this move, but if he is as smart as his supporters claim, and we don’ have the college transcripts to verify it, then he will make a dramatic move and reach out to the Clintons, where he will get two popular politicians for the price of one running mate. It will give him a much better chance of re-election and give the Republicans a tremendous obstacle to overcome in November.
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