The Charlie Melancon For Senate campaign has released an analysis of a recent internal poll from the Democratic Senatorial Committee which says Melancon is ten points behind the incumbent, David Vitter which is good news if you believe that Vitter has been enjoying an eighteen to twenty-two point lead in the Louisiana US Senate race, but bad news if you believe that another internal poll weeks ago had Vitter and Melancon virtually tied.
In essence, the Melancon campaign and the pollster believe that the election is winnable for Melancon but he has an uphill battle given the current ten point lead as represented by the poll and the anti-Democratic Party tenor of recent elections and polls.
Even worse for Melancon and the democrats, Louisiana is soundly conservative and anti-Obama which makes it even much more difficult for Melancon or any other candidate to prevail even against the weakened incumbent US Senator, Vitter.
Below are comments from the Melancon campaign and a pointed response by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The Louisiana Senate race is a 10-point contest, with Republican Sen. David Vitter currently drawing 48 percent of the vote to Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon's 38 percent, according to a poll commissioned by the DSCC. The survey, conducted by the Democratic firm Bennett, Petts & Normington, suggests that a month after both candidates began running attack ads, Vitter holds a solid advantage but hasn't yet locked up reelection. Ten points is a quite a bit for any Democrat to make up in this environment, and Melancon is no exception. Still, the congressman will have the money to compete in the final sprint and Vitter has the kind of built-in vulnerabilities - to put it delicately - that make it possible to imagine an upset.
When three minor candidates are included in the poll, they draw about evenly from Vitter and Melancon, leaving Vitter at 44 percent, Melancon at 35 percent, Libertarian Randall Hayes at 2 percent and independents Mike Spears and Ernest Wooton at 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Those numbers put the race somewhere in the middle of the short Democratic target list, below the Missouri and Kentucky Senate races, but creeping ahead of Ohio and North Carolina. The poll tested 800 likely voters between Sept. 13 and 16.
National Republican Senatorial Committee
As you may have seen, with just 43 days until Election Day national Democrats leaked an internal poll to Politico’s Morning Score, which shows Charlie Melancon trailing Senator Vitter by 10 points, “with Republican Sen. David Vitter currently drawing 48 percent of the vote to Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon’s 38 percent.”
Aside from how staggeringly pathetic it is for Melancon and his handlers – after spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on attack ads – to be pushing an internal poll showing their candidate at a double-digit deficit, I wanted to bring to your attention the internal poll Melancon’s handlers leaked in July, claiming that Melancon was a single point behind Senator Vitter…
Just to be clear on what the Democrats themselves are saying about this race… In July, they claimed Melancon was trailing 44-43, “essentially tied” with Vitter. And today, in what may prove their saddest attempt to inspire hope during this election cycle, they claim Vitter leads Melancon 48-38. So, according to the Democrats, Melancon has either lost 9 points on Vitter since the Democrats’ last poll…or the Democrats are finally admitting that they released a poll in July which they knew to be false.
As if this wasn’t bad enough, flash back to March, when the flailing Melancon campaign “attempted to renew attention on Vitter’s potential vulnerability” by leaking a poll that showed Melancon trailing Senator Vitter by… wait for it…10 points.
So, after claiming Melancon was “essentially tied” with Vitter and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on misleading attack ads, Melancon’s own polls show him exactly where he was in March – trailing David Vitter by double digits. Amazingly, the Democrats felt this was worth bragging about. For your reference, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Senator Vitter with a 14.3 percent lead.
Vitter Push Poll?
Well, I have just been subjected to the first poll or survey from a candidate in the US Senate race.
Last week, I received a phone call which started to tell me how good Senator Vitter has been in being the anti-Obama and how inadequate Melancon is for his votes since the current President took office.
From the very beginning, I could tell where the questionnaire was going. Actually, a political neophyte being trained on Politics for Dummies would have had not problem seeing through the call.
I believe the purpose of the call was not to gauge how I feel about this election but to convince me that the republican senator walked on water while the democrat opponent was sinking fast.
At the end of the call, I was told that the survey/poll was paid by David Vitter for U.S. Senate.