Can the Democratic Party breathe a sign of relief this year as the President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden attempt to shake up the party base while on the campaign trail? Or, with all of the news lately claiming republicans poised to possibly take over Congress, is the momentum clearly in the favor of the GOP?
Or, will the Tea Party hurt the republicans more than democrats, this fall election?
Or, are the independent vote so anti-democratic party and so anti-Obama that whatever gains were made during the two national elections are now lost?
A Harris Interactive poll released today show a real mixed bag and results are based upon interpretations.
The primaries are over and the sprint is on for the final six weeks of campaigning before Election Day 2010. If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, two in five registered voters (40%) would vote for the Democratic candidate and 36% would vote for the Republican candidate with one in five (19%) not at all sure.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,620 adults surveyed online between September 14 and 20, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
The parties are mostly holding their bases with voters, as 84% of Republicans are voting for their party's candidate and 81% of Democrats say they are voting for their candidate. However, Independents are favoring Republicans, as 35% would vote for that party's candidate for Congress and 23% would vote for the Democratic candidate, while one-quarter of Independents (27%) are still not at all sure for whom they would vote.
Among those registered voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote this November, 43% would vote for the Republican candidate, 41% for the Democratic candidate and 12% are not at all sure. The Republicans have a larger advantage when it comes to interest in the election. Almost half (48%) of those registered voters who are extremely or very interested in the election say they would vote for the Republican candidate while 38% would vote for the Democratic candidate.
Adding in a Tea Party Candidate
If there is a third candidate in the race, representing the Tea Party, Democrats can breathe a small sigh of relief. Among registered voters, 41% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 23% would vote for the Republican, 13% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 23% are still not at all sure. Among those voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote, 42% would vote Democrat, 26% would vote Republican, 17% would vote for the Tea Party candidate and 15% are not at all sure.
Looking at it by party, Democrats continue to vote for their party's candidate, as 80% would vote for the Democrat in the race. Republicans, Independents and Tea Party supporters all split their votes. Among Republican voters, three in five (59%) would vote Republican and one in five (21%) would vote for the Tea Party candidate, with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, 27% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 21% would vote for the Tea Party candidate, 18% would vote for the Republican candidate and over one-third (35%) are not at all sure for whom they would vote. It is just as divided for Tea Party supporters with 13% voting for the Democratic candidate, 36% voting Republican, 31% voting for the Tea Party candidate and 20% who say they are still not at all sure.
Currently, Americans don't think Congress is doing a good job. Almost nine in ten (87%) give Congress negative ratings while just 13% give it positive ones. What remains to be seen on November 2nd is if voters are mainly unhappy with Democrats - after all, they are the ones in power, or with all incumbents. Seeing so many incumbents defeated in primaries, as well as seeing establishment candidates lose, as well, makes it seem as if these midterm elections are a complete game-changer. Of course, since Democrats are in power, they may suffer more losses, but it would not be a surprise to see unexpected Republicans lose, too. The morning of November 3rd should provide a very interesting post-mortem to this campaign season.