Let me guess-- there’s Louisiana, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Kansas.
That makes six.
The right answer, at least according to Cillizza is (drum roll, please): Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Kansas
Specifically, Cillizza wrote, “The five seats mentioned above are the majority makers -- or breakers. Republicans need two of the five. Keep your eye on them. His eye is on Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Kansas.
So, what does Cillizza say about Louisiana?
“This one isn't being written off just yet, but a Fox News poll last week showed Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) leading Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) by 13 points in a likely runoff, 51-38. If that's even close to accurate, Landrieu is in big trouble. And we hate to ascribe political motivations to every little thing a politician does, but a sitting United States senator participating in a keg stand doesn't feel like something you do if you feel good about your political standing.”
Which doesn’t necessarily mean that for now incumbent Mary Landrieu doesn’t have a “keg” to stand on, but, for now, it doesn’t look good for the three-termer.
The notion that an incumbent US Senator who has the top spot in the Senate energy and natural resource committee and who chairs the Homeland Security Appropriations committee could be an underdog right now is simply--stunning.
Of all states who should covet the energy seat because of its dependency upon the petrochemical industry, it would be Louisiana. Yet, assuming that The Fox and The Fix (and reportedly some of the democratic operatives) are correct, Landrieu needs to get moving, fast, if not even, faster.
For one, the national Democratic Party soon will be deciding which races are “winnable” warranting cash infusion and intense support. Should the party remove Louisiana off the “toss up” or “leaning-blue” states, it could result in Cassidy winning straight up in the “jungle primary”.
Rob Maness, the other major candidate, who is the Tea Party favorite,would not even need to drop out.
Sounds like lunacy, doesn't it? But, it could very well be a reality.
If anti-Landrieu voters, particularly Tea Partiers who are now supporting Maness (or who even those who are independent) believe that “victory is at hand”, do you think they would vote based upon principle?
No way Jose.
They will remember their core mission for over 18 years was, is and will be--to beat Mary Landrieu.
Worse, for Landrieu, the election really is not even about her nor about her opponents. It is about Barack Obama.
Virtually every TV commercial that anyone has run against Landrieu mentions the president.
Just as David Vitter ran against Obama in his last election outing and just as Bobby Jindal is now doing in his Presidential–run escapade, so has Cassidy.
If Fox and other polls are correct, Cassidy is the front-runner and has been able to become so without really making a peep.
Few people, even Cassidy supporters know anything about the Congressman. He surely has not discussed his political beliefs on the various issues. He has avoided debates. When challenged by Landrieu, Maness and others, he has refused to respond for clarifications.
He is the stealth candidate, guided by David Vitter who, himself, is the paragon of evasiveness.
Indeed, the anger against Obama, in Louisiana, is so thick you can cut it with a feather. Landrieu stayed with him on a number of critical issues and is obviously paying the price. Now, with a mere five weeks left to Election Day, US Senate Mary Landrieu just might need to play and more importantly, convince the nationals holding the money that she can win it.