Christopher Tidmore-New Orleans Elections

Tuesday, 07 October 2014 12:57

Louisiana poll: US Senate, next governor, Obama, Jindal's popularity

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jindal-obamaby Lou Gehrig burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net

Senate race: neck-and-neck
    A new poll on the Louisiana U.S. Senate race by Public Policy Polling (PPP) reveals a neck-and-neck  race between incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy.

    Landrieu continues to have a clear lead for the November primary.  The results: Landrieu 42%, Cassidy 34%, Republican Rob Maness 12%, Someone Else 2%, and Undecided 10%.
    But in a head-to-head matchup, Cassidy leads Landrieu 48-45% with 7% undecided.  The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.9%, making it a dead heat.
    PPP concludes that neither candidate is very popular with voters.  Landrieu has an approval rating of 42% while Cassidy’s is 37%.  The unfavorable approval rating for Landrieu is 52%; for Cassidy, it’s 41%.
    While some polls have shown Maness with momentum, PPP says that he continues to be no real threat to Cassidy’s chances of finishing in the top two.
    If there is a December runoff, Landrieu’s challenge will be getting her supporters to the polls.  Of the 11% who are doubtful if they will vote in December, Landrieu leads 40-27%.  Of the 89% who say they will definitely vote in December, Cassidy leads 50-45%.
    The problem for Maness seems to be money to get him on statewide television.  He was given a 23% approval rating and a 27% unfavorable.  But 50% said they are not sure, meaning they don’t know a lot about him.

Who do voters like?
    The PPP poll did not find a single elected official who has a 50% approval/favorable rating among the 1,141 likely Louisiana voters surveyed.
    Here is the list of officials surveyed and their approval/favorable ratings and disapproval/unfavorable ratings:
    *New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D) – 46% favorable and 31% unfavorable.
    *U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R) – 46% favorable and 35% unfavorable.
    *President Barack Obama (D) – 39% favorable and 56% unfavorable.
    *Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) – 34% favorable and 55% unfavorable.
    *Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R) – 32% favorable and 20% unfavorable.
    * State Rep. and gubernatorial candidate John Bel Edwards (D) – 14% favorable and 22% unfavorable.
The 2015 governor’s race
    PPP also looked at the 2015 governor’s race in Louisiana.  The results of hypothetical match-ups:
    *David Vitter (R) 47%, Mitch Landrieu (D) 38% with 15% undecided.
    *David Vitter (R) 50%, John Bel Edwards (D) 32% with 18% undecided.
    *David Vitter (R) 37%, Jay Dardenne (R) 30%  with 33% undecided.
    *Jay Dardenne (R) 43%, Mitch Landrieu (D) 39% with 18% undecided.
    *Jay Dardenne (R) 44%, John Bel Edwards 30% with 26% undecided.
    The poll did not include Scott Angelle, Public Service Commissioner, who announced last week.  He is a Republican and is considered a viable candidate.
    He becomes the third announced GOP candidate.

The 2016 presidential race
    Here is how poll respondents would vote for president in 2016 in Louisiana:
    *Hillary Clinton (D) 46%, Bobby Jindal (R) 45% with 9% undecided.
    *Jeb Bush (R) 49%, Hillary Clinton (D) 41% with 10% undecided.
    *Hillary Clinton (D) 44%, Chris Christie (R) 42% with 14% undecided.
    *Ted Cruz (R) 47%, Hillary Clinton (D) 44% with 10% undecided.
    *Mike Huckabee (R) 50%, Hillary Clinton (D) 43% with 7% undecided.
    *Rand Paul (R) 47%, Hillary Clinton (D) 43% with 9% undecided.
Shocking responses
    When PPP asked who would you rather have as governor, Edwin Edwards or Bobby Jindal, the result was shocking.  The result:
    *Edwin Edwards (D) 47%, Bobby Jindal 43% with 10% undecided.
    *To the question, “Do you have a favorable  opinion of Edwin Edwards?”  The result:
    Favorable 40%, unfavorable 44%, 17% unsure.
    *To the question, “Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for president in 2016?”  The result:
    Think he should 20%, think he should not 68%  with 13% undecided.
    *To the question, “If Bobby Jindal was the Republican candidate for Vice President in 2016, would that make you more or less likely to support the Republican nominee?”  The result:
 More  likely  28%,  less likely 42%, wouldn’t  make a difference 26% with 4% not sure.
Other interesting results:
    *55% support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour.
    *56% think Louisiana should accept federal funding to expand Medicaid coverage.
    *21% approved of Mary Landrieu helping  someone do a keg stand at a recent LSU football game.  36% disapproved, and 40% didn’t care.
    *48% described themselves as conservative, 24% as liberal, and 28% as moderate. 

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Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter. | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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