Saturday, 16 September 2017 13:54

Rigamer's New Orleans Mayor's race poll: Charbonnet 20%, Cantrell 15%, Bagneris 10% Featured

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rigamerAccording to a poll by Greg Rigamer, Desiree Charbonnet has a five point lead over her closest competitor LaToya Cantrell but 41% of those polled were undecided. The poll was commissioned by the Charbonnet campaign and the five point margin was within the same margin of error.


(Photo: Greg Rigamer)
Rigamer’s poll found that Michael Bagneris is running a very distant third.

According to the poll, Charbonnet leads with 20% of the votes cast, followed by Cantrell’s 15% and Bagneris’s 10%. The Rigamer poll, surveying 610 chronic voters, found that no other candidate had more than five percent of the vote.

New Orleans Mayor's race

Here are Rigamer's comments and results from poll showing Charbonnet leading LaToya Cantrell:

The poll of 610 chronic voters was conducted using live callers to landlines and cell phones and balanced both demographically and geographically. Diving deeper into the numbers, the poll shows that Charbonnet is the leading first choice, the leading second choice, the top choice for African American voters and the top choice for white voters. Charbonnet is the top choice for both Democrats and Republicans. Charbonnet is the top choice for every age group except one, and is the top choice for seniors, and especially large and important group of voters.

At the request of the campaign, I surveyed 610 registered voters in Orleans Parish with a very consistent voting record (also known as chronic voters) to ascertain their preferred candidate in the upcoming Mayoral election. The interviews were conducted live by trained operators and all participants were asked to confirm their commitment to vote in the primary. Of the 610 interviews completed, 54% were by landline telephones and 46% by mobile phones. The responses are considered to have a 95% plus confidence level. The respondents were balanced demographically and geographically to reflect the likely voters in October in Orleans Parish. The topline and crosstab reports are attached for review. The Key Findings are as follows:

  • Charbonnet leads the field with 20% of the 610 respondents selecting her as their First choice for Mayor. She was followed by Cantrell with 15%, and Bagneris with 10%. No other candidate had more than 5%. At this point in the campaign, 41% of the respondents indicated that they were undecided at this point.
  • When we look at the 340 respondents who have a First choice, 35% said that they supported Charbonnet. Cantrell followed with 27% and Bagneris with 18%. When the “Leaners” were added to the firm First choices, Charbonnet’s percentage of the committed voters rose to 40%; Cantrell’s to 28% and Bagneris’ to 21%.
  • Charbonnet was the leading Second choice of Cantrell’s voters and Cantrell was theleading Second choice candidate for Bagneris voters.
  • Charbonnet was the leading candidate from both African American and white respondents. Likewise, she was the leading candidate among males and females.
  • Charbonnet was the leading candidate in Council Districts A, C, D, and E. Cantrell lead in District B – the District she currently represents.
  • Charbonnet was also the leading candidate among Democrats and Republicans surveyed. Cantrell lead among Independent and other voters.
  • Cantrell lead among respondents from 30 to 44 years old while Charbonnet lead among all others (18 to 29, 45 to 59, and 60 and Over). We expect 70%+ of the votes cast in October to be from voters 45 years old and over.

I am confident that the survey results reflect the position of the Mayor’s race at this point in time. It is interesting to note that the results discussed herein are consistent with several other recent polls conducted by credible professionals. I believe that Desiree Charbonnet is well positioned to make the runoff as she has a broad base of support throughout the community. In my opinion, she will prove to be a very formidable candidate.

Poll Top Lines

Poll Trial Heat

Discuss below Rigamer's New Orleans Mayor's Race poll comissioned by Charbonnet campaign



Read 4183 times Last modified on Sunday, 17 September 2017 21:49

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