Thursday, 22 March 2018 16:50

REVERSAL: UNO poll, Lopinto over Fortunato 47-44 in Jefferson Parish Sheriff Race

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lopinto fortunatoAccording to a new UNO poll conducted by Ed Chervenak, Professor of Political Science, interim Sheriff Joe Lopinto has now overtaken John Fortunato with a 47-44 advantage. What is significant is the poll, only weeks ago had Fortunato up by double digits, 16 points.
 
Here is the pertinent information: 
A survey of 617 randomly selected Jefferson Parish registered voters was conducted March 18-20, 2018 by the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center on the Jefferson Parish Sheriff’s race scheduled for March 24, 2018. Survey respondents were asked in an interactive voice response telephone survey (IVR)1 who they preferred in the upcoming sheriff’s race. This survey of 617 randomly selected respondents yields a margin of error of +/- 3.9% at a confidence level of 95%. 
The findings from the current poll are compared with the results from a poll conducted on March 4-5, 2018 of 767 randomly selected Jefferson Parish registered voters that inquired into who respondents supported in the sheriff’s election. The sample size from the early March study yields a margin of error of +/- 3.5% at a 95% confidence rate.

We also simulate what the poll results would look like if we employed the turnout patterns from the October 2015 election in Jefferson Parish. While that election is not exact copy of the current one, they are similar enough in nature to make a reasonable comparison. Although the October 2015 ballot contained statewide contests, it is comparable to the current election in that it featured a parish-wide election for sheriff. In addition, there were 13,393 early voters in the October 2015 election while the March 2018 election saw 13,496 parish residents cast an early ballot.
 
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