Friday, 07 November 2014 18:23

Might Landrieu, Edwards quit Louisiana campaigns like EWE did against Roemer?

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dssc To some political observers, the prospects of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) pulling reserved commercials space for the runoff with Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy, might have been quite unlikely even after the Republican party trounced the Democrats nationally and even after Louisiana US Sen. Mary Landrieu eked out a very slight lead over her major challenger, on Tuesday, election day.


On Thursday, the national Democratic Senatorial committee did exactly that.  Thus, an already uphill battle for the three-term Democratic, Mary Landrieu, now appears to be even more bleak.

For now, the national democrats are reviewing ad buys on an more ad hoc basis and now committing to roughly two million dollars in TV ads.

However, her ability to create a new message and the prospects of her being able to depend upon the national Democrats for their financial support was actually a topic of discussion only hours after election night.  Early Wednesday morning, during the Bayou Buzz Google hangout discussion, that scenario of the Democrats rethinking their support for the long-term Louisiana US Senator became an issue.

The topic was raise in a context of an election decades ago in which then, Gov. Edwin Edwards, who is now fighting to win the fifth Congressional District election, surprisingly announced that he would terminate his campaign after losing in the general election to Gov. Buddy Roemer.

Below is part three of the recent Google hangout discussion with Bayou Buzz publisher Stephen Sabludowsky, and political experts Jim Brown and Lawrence Chehardy, in which those issues were discussed:

CHEHARDY: you've got to believe in that race, it's going to be very difficult even if Gov. Edwards could raise money, it's going to be very difficult for him to win that race in a runoff

SABLUDOWSKY: Jim, I'm thinking of election between Edwards and Roemer when Roemer became governor and Edwards after ended up losing the general election, he dropped out, he knew, he knew that he was not going to be able to win, why would he decide to say in the race now and likewise, and I know people going to get angry with me here, but Mary Landrieu doesn't look very good right now, her main argument has been defeated. We all agree that she has  a tough race and that she can only hope that somehow she can garner more people to come out to vote and hope that Republicans become complacent so if she can't raise as much money and certainly Republicans can throw money down here in the third-party groups can do so, is she going to pull an Edwards like Edwards did with Roemer? {snippet 137}

BROWN; I think you raise several issues, they are, Steve I think is more chance of Landrieu pulling an Edwards then Edwards doing it again.  in 1987 in the governor's race, Edwards was the governor, number one, he held the seat.  And number two he was not leading, he was behind Roemer a complete unknown. And Roemer had really not spent that much money--so as a consequence, I think that he saw the writing on the wall.  I don't think, I tell you what, from the very beginning, the same arguments that were making why Edwards cannot win this election, we could have made four months ago when he decided to run this election , nothing to do out here, here is the difference--back then, he knew he couldn't win, he was young, he still had a life to come back, as he proved, to come back to win another term as governor, this time around you know what I don't think he cares, Steve.  I think that at 87 he's relishing the fact, that wherever he goes he gets mobbed by people whether they're going to vote for him or not.  He gets a lot of attention, he selling books, he's in the heyday on his rehabilitation tour. I think he's got a young son and kids, he wants to make a legacy that he went out as a very popular guy, if he wins one or loses one at this stage in his life, I don't think he cares because if he's got any reservations now about the runoff, those same reservations were there when he ran for this office to begin with, knowing that he had a real uphill fight

BROWN: Now Landrieu is in a different situation.  This is kind of a all-time deal for her, if it was not such a major race, I think she would consider not running whether pulling out the race and just shutting it down. I think a lot is going on in terms of discussion with the national party, with the Senatorial campaign committee, the national Democratic Party, those discussions are going to take place over the next couple of days, and that going to have an influence on this thing because you know Cassidy, in spite of the fact that they don't need Cassidy's vote.  When 2016 comes up, and there's twice the number of Republicans at risk and kind of thing could flip around two years from now so there is a lot in the mix here to where if Cassidy really could have the money, will Landrieu stay in, will Democrats actually back her up nationally, put that money in down here, if they do I think she'll go ahead and roll the dice to take a shot and not go out as a quitter.  But if she doesn't have that back up she may decide, , will look, I've got this $2 million home in Washington, I can become a big shot lobbyist and enjoy the good life so I think were going to see a lot of soul-searching over the next few days for her to make the final decision, I think Edwards,, He's in. He's loving it .  And so you know the day after the election, assuming he loses, he'll be back out there, shaking hands, selling books again. That's his "reason to be" if you will, a whole different scenario than Mary Landrieu.

CHEHARDY: I think Governor Edwards is having the time of his life, he's enjoying it he's traveling around the district with his wife talking to different groups, people come up to him they stand in line to shake his hand, they want their picture taken with him, he's still is celebrity that he was when he was governor he still very popular with the lot of people, they still like him. Now but obviously they didn't vote for him, 70% in the district didn't vote for him. But he's having a good time and I don't picture him going anywhere except heading towards December 6, I'd be surprised,  I'd be surprised if Senator Landrieu did not take this to the end. The race for the United States has for more implications then just what happens in Louisiana.  We, in Louisiana looking for a senator who can represent us on all the issues, but on the stand point of Washington, their looking for the votes,  they're looking for power, their looking for the ability to control the agenda and to control their program. There is a reasonable chance that in 2016 that this could reverse. you can see some very easily some Republicans losing some seats in 2016 because it's going to be just the opposite it's going to be a lot of Republicans who are going to be up for reelection as opposed  Democrats as was this time in the election yesterday 

So, if you subscribe to the idea that in 2016  could reasonably be a different day, a different outcome, that one  vote with Mary Landrieu in the United States Senate side,  could be the difference between 50-50  and 51-49 so I don't picture her not running to the end. 

BROWN: The other thing I might throw in there and back of what Lawrence is saying is--let's assume she says I can't win this thing I think I'm going to shut it down, that has national implications it shows that the Republicans, the Democrats are quitters and they've given up if you will, so they're probably, even if she runs and loses there's probably the fact that she goes down swinging and fighting there some value there for the Democrats all across the country so that is probably going to be some pressure in there to hang in there and fight it out to the end even though realistically she has a real huge uphill fight 

SABLUDOWSKY: Uphill? She at this point in time, there are no, at at least in the upcoming U.S. Senate, there are no Democratic senators from the South.  Now she wins she'll be the only one, so should she be the person out there to try to beat down the wall, I don't know she's not a quitter far from, I do know that, I just don't know what her message is going to be, and that's the thing I really wonder about.  And, if she can't get the money and if the nationals are not going to generate the money for her, then does she want to go out by 30-40 points?

CHEHARDY: I don't think, if Sen. Landrieu were to lose, I don't think it would be anything like that, I think it would be much closer than that. Then again, it has national implications, now we're here speculating on what the thought processes is of people in Washington, who certainly can be off-the-wall sometimes, and of course that's why the public is so upset, I just don't see a scenario where she leaves this contests, I don't see it happening, She's a very capable politician , she's a very capable campaigner, maybe a better one then Congressman Cassidy, but I do agree with what you said and what Jim has said-- what's her message going to be?  That's going to be her problem I don't think it's going to be enough to say what she said in the primary. Because she said it. and it didn't work.

SABLUDOWSKY: It didn't work, I just got an email from her, or at least her campaign and it was an anti-Cassidy website, I didn't go to the website but did look at the email and it was basically  the same message about Cassidy going into the runoff that she was trying to get out there going into the jungle primary, so I don't know. 

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