Thursday, 11 July 2019 12:57

Biden's sees lead over Harris, Warren drops to single digits, likely voters

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In the race to take on President Donald Trump, vice-president Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders continue to slip in the polls among Democratic voters according to the just released Morning Consult poll. Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the survey is that among likely voters, Biden's lead drops to high single digits.

 

Here are the findings and below is the narrative from the Morning Consult's email blast:

Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have risen up the ranks of contenders for the Democratic presidential primary in recent months, closing the gap between the field and its current leader, former Vice President Joe Biden.

New Morning Consult polling showing preferences among the primary electorate's most likely voters suggests that gap may be even smaller than it appears.

Biden holds respective 17- and 18-point leads over Harris and Warren in the latest survey of 16,599 Democratic primary voters, conducted July 1-7. But that advantage shrinks to 8 points over Harris and 12 points over Warren among the 4,604 voters who are most likely to vote: those who said they're absolutely certain to vote in 2020, have voted in previous elections and are extremely interested in politics and public affairs. Both samples have 1-point margins of error.

Biden has held steady, but both Harris (by 4 points) and Warren (by 9 points) have improved their standing with the most likely Democratic voters since Morning Consult polling conducted Feb. 1-28, which also had a 1-point margin of error.

While Harris and Warren overperform with the party's likeliest voters, it's the opposite effect for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who trails the former vice president among the likeliest primary voters by 17 points, compared with a 12-point deficit among the overall primary electorate.

The most enthusiastic voters are 7 points less likely than the overall primary electorate to give Sanders first-choice status, 12 percent to 19 percent, while they're 7 points more likely to back Harris. Warren has a 4-point advantage with the group compared to the overall electorate. 

Since February, Sanders has lost 5 points with the group, matching his movement among the overall electorate over the same time period. 

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