Wednesday, 20 September 2017 23:30

New Orleans Mayor's Race Poll and pick Landrieu, Morial or Nagin? Featured

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mayorsWhich Mayor might win the New Orleans election if the candidates were between two former Mayors and the current one, Mitch Landrieu? This is an extrapolation of an issue that a local PAC surveyed when it asked the following question: 

 

"Of the recent New Orleans Mayors who was the best at moving New Orleans forward?", voters were asked: Mayor Marc Morial  Mayor Ray Nagin, Mayor Mitch Landrieu?

Thus, it might be fair to assume that the registered voters polled would choose the same candidate if those Mayors were running for the upcoming New Orleans Mayor's race.  Right?

And, here's another question: Would the voters be willing to give Mitch Landrieu a third-term, or three-peat-- assuming, again,  he would wanted one and the issue was on the ballot?

Now, no doubt, the most important question asked, that does pertain to the real contest at hand, the upcoming New Olreans Mayor's race. Who are these same registered voters pulling for--Desiree Charbonnet, Troy Henry, LaToya Cantrell, Michael Bagneris?

Below are the answers to the questions asked above.  The details come courtesy of Greg Buisson in the form of a press release from a PAC called VoicePAC, founded by Sidney Torres.

Also below is a Facebook Live Video discussion I conducted today with political writer, Christopher Tidmore, who, I must confess, is full of facts, information and great analysis.  I consider the video a "must watch" for those serius political watchers, candidates and other interested parties.

Now, the Buisson Press release:

In an independent poll commissioned by VoicePac, registered voters rated former Mayor Marc Morial as the best among recent mayors for moving New Orleans forward. 

When asked to answer the question, "Of the recent New Orleans Mayors who was the best at moving New Orleans forward?", voters answered as follows:  Mayor Marc Morial (43%), Mayor Ray Nagin (8%), Mayor Mitch Landrieu (29%).  Voters did, however, split among racial lines with Landrieu leading Morial 36% to 20% among white voters, and Morial leading Landrieu 55% to 25% among black voters. 

QUESTION:  Of the recent New Orleans mayors including Mayor Marc Morial,

Mayor Ray Nagin and Mayor Mitch Landrieu who was the best at moving New Orleans Forward?

MAYOR

VOTER CHOICE

AMONG WHITE VOTERS

AMONG BLACK VOTERS

Marc Morial

43%

20%

55%

Ray Nagin

8%

8%

8%

Mitch Landrieu

29%

36%

25%

No Choice

20%

36%

13%

AMONG DISTRICTS AND PARTY AFFILIATIONS

MAYOR

A

B

C

D

E

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

INDEPENDENTS

Marc Morial

33%

31%

42%

50%

54%

51%

13%

34%

Ray Nagin

9%

4%

7%

10%

9%

4%

17%

14%

Mitch Landrieu

31%

38%

33%

25%

19%

30%

19%

30%

No Choice

27%

27%

19%

15%

18%

15%

51%

22%

Voters in Districts D and E, which encompass much of the Seventh, Eighth and Ninth Wards as well as Gentilly and  New Orleans East, are the most in favor of former Mayor Marc Morial, while Mayor Mitch Landrieu did best among voters in Districts A and B.  Republicans are the most discontent with any of the recent mayors with 51% choosing none.

 

THIRD TERM

                Voters overwhelmingly indicated that they are content selecting a new mayor rather than give current Mayor Mitch Landrieu a third term.  When asked to answer the question, "Considering the field of candidates running for mayor, would you have preferred to give Mayor Mitch Landrieu a third term or select a new mayor from the candidates running?," voters answered as follows: Third Term (26%), New Mayor (63%).  The voters were united in the decision to protect term limits regardless of race or any other demographic difference.  Only 20% of the white voter respondents indicated that they would have given Mayor Landrieu a third term while 68% said they want to elect a new mayor.  And, only 29% of the black voter respondents would have given Mayor Landrieu a third term while 60% said they want to elect a new mayor.  Voters in District E were the most committed to wanting a new mayor with 69% wanting change, while in District B it was 58%. 

QUESTION:  Considering the field of candidates running for mayor, would you have preferred

to give Mayor Mitch Landrieu a third term or select a new mayor from the candidates running?

PREFERENCE

VOTER CHOICE

AMONG WHITE VOTERS

AMONG BLACK VOTERS

3rd TERM

26%

20%

29%

NEW MAYOR

63%

68%

60%

Don't Know

11%

12%

11%

 

AMONG DISTRICTS AND PARTY AFFILIATIONS

PREFERENCE

A

B

C

D

E

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

INDEPENDENTS

3rd TERM

30%

28%

23%

30%

20%

28%

17%

22%

NEW MAYOR

66%

58%

61%

62%

69%

62%

75%

64%

Don't Know

4%

14%

16%

8%

11%

10%

8%

14%

 

The voters of District E again indicate their frustration with the current administration by indicating overwhelmingly 69% to 20% that they would like to see a new mayor.  Republicans are also the most willing to want a new mayor by a margin of 75% to 17%. 

VoicePac released a poll yesterday indicating that former Municipal Court Judge Desiree Charbonnet has emerged as the frontrunner in the mayor’s race with 26% of the decided vote. She is followed closely by Councilwoman Latoya Cantrell at 17%.  Former Civil District Court Judge Michael Bagneris has 11% while businessman Troy Henry has 5%.  The four candidates will meet in the first televised debate on Wednesday, September 27th from Loyola University’s Roussel Hall. The debate will air on public television station WLAE-TV Channel 14 from 8PM - 9:30PM.  According to VoicePac founder Sidney Torres, “The high level of interest by the public to learn about the candidates and their platforms is evident simply by the quick response by voters to be in the audience for this debate. More than 600 people have already downloaded their free ticket to the debate.  We encourage those who want to meet the candidates and be at the university for the debate to continue to register at Eventbrite on the VoicePac wait list since as we are securing additional space for an auxiliary audience. Our recent poll asked voters to consider all 18 candidates.  Our poll is also based on all eligible voters, not just likely voters.  That was important to ensure a fair analysis of voter opinions as we determined which candidates met the 5% or greater threshold to participate in the televised debate.”   

 

CANDIDATE

VOTER TOTAL

Michael Bagneris

11%

Latoya Cantrell

17%

Desiree Charbonnet

26%

Troy Henry

5%

Other Candidates

17%

Undecided/Refused

24%

ANALYSIS

        VoicePac political strategist Greg Buisson notes, “Former Mayor Marc Morial has more voters indicating that his administration was better at moving the city forward than the past two administrations combined.  The poll spotlights  the frustration of voters in New Orleans East and the lower Ninth Ward where residents and business owners complain often about the lack of progress over the past two administrations.  Given data that indicates that the vast majority of voters who are willing to rate the last three mayors would go back almost two decades to select the former mayor who was the most effective in moving the city forward, the current candidate who can emerge as the most likely change agent will benefit the most in this election.”

NOTE:  The public opinion poll was conducted by Multi-Quest International pollster John Grimm.  The poll documented the attitudes and opinions of 550 Orleans Parish registered voters, and was conducted from Friday, September 15 through Monday, September 18.  The threshold for candidates to appear in the debate was 5% or above of the total first choice and leaning vote base

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