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Tuesday, 14 November 2017 16:07

Read New Orleans Mayor's race poll: Cantrell leads Charbonnet by 11

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Another poll evaluating the New Orleans Mayor's race shows that LaToya Cantrell is leading Desiree Charbonnet, however, this one by eleven points. Last week, a different poll, that one by the Democratic Education Reform, indicated that Cantrell was ahead by 18 points. The election is now less than five days away.

Below is the survey conducted by the University of New Orleans.  Dr. Ed Chervenak, Professor of Political Science at UNO will be participating in a Facebook Live Interview Wednesday November 15 at 1PM to discuss this survey.  That interview will be presented on Bayoubuzz and on Twitter.

We have provided a link below at the bottom of the article so readers can review this survey in its entirety.


The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center (SRC) conducted a telephone poll of 602 likely voters in New Orleans. Telephone numbers were randomly selected from a sample frame of likely voters. A likely voter is defined as an individual who has voted at least three times in the last five statewide elections. Interviews were conducted November 1-8, 2017. The combined landline and cell phone sample matches the gender, age, race, and council district parameters from the voter file obtained from the Louisiana Secretary of State. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent at a 95% level of confidence.
•    Latoya Cantrell enjoys an 11 point lead over Desiree Charbonnet among likely voters.
•    Cantrell is most popular with African-Americans, women and Millennials.
•    Over one-half of voters who cast a ballot for Michael Bagneris plan on voting for Cantrell.
•    Voters who approve of Mitch Landrieu support Cantrell in the runoff.
•    Mayor Landrieu has a 54% job approval rating.
•    Most respondents think the city is moving in the wrong direction.
•    Likely voters are three times more likely to say the Sewerage and Water Board should be placed under the mayor’s control than say it should be privatized.
•    Opinion on whether the statue of Andrew Jackson should be removed from Jackson Square is strongly held and racially polarized.
3|2017 New Orleans Mayoral Runoff Survey
Vote for Mayor
Respondents were asked which candidate they preferred in the upcoming November 18th runoff. Those who responded that they were undecided were then queried on which candidate they leaned toward the most. The data reported here includes both those who initially expressed a candidate preference and those who leaned toward that candidate.

Latoya Cantrell enjoys a double digit percentage lead over Desiree Charbonnet in the runoff for mayor. One fifth of respondents say they are undecided. Cantrell performs slightly better with whites than does Charbonnet, but she has a nearly 20 percentage point advantage over her opponent with African-Americans. Cantrell also does much better than Charbonnet with female likely voters.

For Latoya Cantrell, 247 respondents initially reported they supported her and 28 respondents said they leaned toward her. As for Desiree Charbonnet, 170 respondents initially reported they would vote for her, while 38 respondents said they leaned toward her. That left a total of 120 undecided likely voters.
Latoya Cantrell is especially popular with the Millennials (18 to 34), garnering well over a majority of their support. Her support is relatively consistent across the other age groups. Those respondents age 35 to 44 are the most supportive of Charbonnet, but she also trails Cantrell with this age group.

Cantrell received majority backing in two council districts. Not surprisingly, a majority of respondents from the district she represents on the city council support her candidacy. She also enjoys majority support in District D, and she outpolls Charbonnet in District A and District C. The only area of the city where Charbonnet outperforms Cantrell is in District E.

Household income has a negligible effect on vote decision for this election. Both candidates are at or near a majority in the two income categories listed in the above graphic. Charbonnet, however, does receive a higher level of support from respondents reporting a household income of $61,000 or more.
Educational status has no influence on vote choice. There is virtually no difference in support for the two candidates between those who are college graduates and those who are not.
Respondents were asked if they had voted in the October 14th primary. Eighty-seven percent answered in the affirmative. As the table below indicates, the responses from our poll closely match the vote from the primary for the two qualifiers in the runoff.

The individuals who reported voting in the primary were asked a follow-up question on who they cast a ballot for in the primary. A crosstab of vote intention for the runoff with the primary vote shows how the votes from the other candidates are distributed to the two runoff contenders. The results indicate that those who voted for Cantrell and Charbonnet in the primary plan, for the most part, to stay with their candidate in the runoff. However, Cantrell’s primary voters exhibit a higher degree of loyalty. The results also suggest that the bulk of Michael Bagneris’ supporters
New Orleans Mayoral Runoff Survey have moved into the Cantrell camp. In fact, Bagneris supporters are twice more likely to say that they plan on voting for Cantrell than for Charbonnet.
Although Mayor Landrieu has not tacitly endorsed either of the mayoral candidates, we were interested in discovering if he had any indirect influence on who voters might decide on in the runoff. To answer this question we analyzed for how evaluations of Mitch Landrieu’s job performance might be related to vote choice in the runoff.
Cantrell does well with those who are happy with Landrieu’s job performance. Forty- five percent who strongly approve of the mayor say they are going to vote for her. Moreover, respondents who merely approve of the mayor are twice more likely to support Cantrell over Charbonnet. On the other hand, respondents who are displeased with Landrieu are more likely to say they will cast a ballot for Charbonnet. In the end, negative perceptions of Mitch Landrieu’s job performance are driving vote choice in the direction of Desiree Charbonnet.
Mayoral Job Approval
Mayor Landrieu’s received a 54% positive job rating from the likely voters we surveyed. One third of respondents gave him a negative rating. Overall, whites are unhappy with the mayor, with 30 percent saying they strongly disapprove of him. Six-in-ten African-Americans, on the other hand, approve of Landrieu’s performance in office. Non-black minorities are also more upbeat about the mayor. Males and females rate the mayor equally.
Landrieu’s current approval rating is lower than what was found in a March 2016 Quality of Life survey. We should expect a measure of decay in his approval ratings as he comes to the end of his tenure as New Orleans’ mayor. His numbers are down slightly with whites and he has experienced a 7 point decrease in positive evaluations from African-Americans and an 8 point decrease among males.
Evaluations of Mayor Landrieu are related to the respondent’s age category. As the above chart illustrates, Millennials (18 to 34) are basically split in their appraisal of his performance in office. However, the mayor’s disapproval ratings decline as the respondent’s age increases. Landrieu receives his highest marks from the two oldest age categories. These people are almost twice more likely to approve of the mayor than say they disapprove.


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