The idea of a Republican losing a statewide election in Louisiana would be almost impossible, it would seem, unless, perhaps a candidate such as John Bel Edwards were running for governor against a very unpopular Republican, such as David Vitter.
But, based upon recent developments, others might be getting the same message, that is, the statewide turnout could be so so, so low, except for Orleans Parish, where a Mayor’s race between two women( (for the first time in history) could bring out strong numbers. If so, the chances of Edwards obtaining more of that Democratic-based vote could improve his chances, exponentially.
Today, I discussed the Louisiana Treasurer’s Race, via phone, with Jeff Crouere, who is a radio talk show host for WGSO 990 AM, a Bayoubuzz columnist and a former Executive Director of the Republican Party.
In my asking here to describe the race, Crouere said,
“It's going to be very interesting because in many places, Steve, this is the only thing on the ballot and there's going to be an incredibly low turnout, there's very little interest in the race, little knowledge about it. People don't seem to be plugged in. So if I were John Schroeder, I would at least be worried because he needs a decent turnout for him to be comfortable about winning on the 18th.
Here's the balance of that conversation:
SABLUDOWSKY: Do you think he has any concern, I mean, the idea that a Republican losing a Statewide election is almost Impossible two, in my opinion, to imagine at this point.
CROUERE: Well, if New Orleans has a bigger turnout than we expect, the estimates I'm hearing are 30% 31, 32% maybe more roughly what I've been hearing, Then you have the possibility that this thing could be getting even closer because there would be a differential of maybe 30 points between New Orleans turn out and what we can see statewide.
So I think that's what has John Schroeder a little bit concerned. I think he's really trying to hit his base. He's coming on my program, he's going to be doing various talk shows--just to remind people that he needs to get out the vote on the 18th.
Early voting is obviously part of the strategy, so that's starting. But this would be an incredibly amazing result because Derek Edwards didn't even get the endorsement until recently of the Democratic party. That has so little faith in him that they didn't endorse him until recently.
SABLUDOWSKY: Right right, just last week, so I'm looking at a quote from The Advocate today Where Tom Schedler, the Secretary of State, calculates that between 10 and 12 percent of Louisiana voters appears to be likely to vote which would be down from 12.5% from early October election
CROUERE: Well you have to assume that includes the higher turnout in Orleans. I assume the statewide number-- so if you take Orleans out of the election, it means that the Statewide turnout for Louisiana would be even lower